NC Playoff Previews: Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards
Feb 11, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry (7) reaches for the ball against Washington Wizards point guard John Wall (2) at Air Canada Centre. The Raptors beat the Wizards 95-93. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing the Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards.
Series Notes
by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt
Raptors rating with DeRozan: 3.64
Wizards rating with Beal: 1.81
Toronto faltered down the stretch, but evidence suggests that’s not a concern and what matters more are the results from a full season (http://www.hickory-high.com/recency-bias-sample-size-and-the-pacers/). The Raptors are what I expected: they were a nearly 50 win team propelled by Lowry and a few interesting role players. The Wizards started the season strong too, but it didn’t last as long and they fell back in the playoff seeding race. Based on what I thought pre-season, what the numbers say this season, and what the long-term RPM numbers state, Toronto’s a better team by a modest-sized margin. This is a series where the most likely outcome is game 7.
The prime match-up will be Wall and Lowry, of course. Both are aggressive, strong point guards who can defend quite well when focused. But the match-up I find almost as interesting is Gortat versus Valanciunas because it signifies the battle between what conventional wisdom demands from a center and what works well in modern basketball. Valanciunas is known for his scoring and his developing post-game, and if Jeff Van Gundy had his way he’d be an all-star. But he’s not an intuitive defender, and Gortat does what’s more valuable: he sets picks, he rolls well to the rim, and he plays high-quality defense, especially near the rim. If Toronto wants the team to ascend further, they need to realize Jonas is a weakness, not a strength. Watch for his defense near the rim when Wall attacks, as it could be key for Washington’s victories.
Odds: Raptors 66.4%
(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)
Shot Charts
by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2
These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.
Team Offense-Defense Matchups
By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3
These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.
Rotation Comparisons
by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide
Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.
TeamSPACE
by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd
TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.
Head-scratching, really. Before the season started I had concerns that Wall, Beal, Pierce could thrive in a world where each had there own shooting space. They peacefully co-exist spatially, but probably for not the right reasons. Wall has a little too-much midrange activity. The elbow jumpers are money (likely the results of the PnR), but could be cleaned a bit. It’s a crowded area in this lineup. Related: Beal and Nene overlap a little too much in the midrange – an uncomfortable thought.
Holy Terrence Ross, Batman! That’s probably too much red space. It’s not just the midrange – tidying up some of the 3pt activity wouldn’t be the worst thing. It’s not too problematic since DeMar DeRozan is nowhere to be found from deep. On the other hand, Kyle Lowry would benefit from a little more room to breath; his areas are subject to constant overlap. Also, there’s no tactful way to say it: Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas overlap. Everywhere.
Offensive Styles
by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh
These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.
Both teams are fairly similar in the quality of their shot selection. However this chart reflects them getting there in different ways. The Wizards push the pace and feature a lot more movement than the Raptors. Toronto relies heavily on isolations and individual play-making to drive their offense.