Week 25 in Review: Last Call

April 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30, right) dribbles the basketball against New Orleans Pelicans guard Norris Cole (30, left) during the fourth quarter in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Pelicans 97-87. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

There were only a handful of regular season games last week and the playoffs just started, but I thought I’d wrap up the regular season with my picks for various awards as well as a few last notes. I’ll also provide the full season results of my metric, which you can read about here and here. This is a beta version, however, and I still need to test things and redo the model now that I have two seasons of SportVU data, but it was requested and I thought I could throw it out there with all the MVP and playoff talk about who’s best.

Most Valuable Player

I don’t think I need to explain my top five on my unofficial MVP ballot, as, in alphabetical order, Curry, Davis, Harden, LeBron, and Paul have all had fantastic seasons and they generally look great in whatever alphabet-soup metric you’re using. Four of these players are one-man offenses, which you can see through even basic stats like on/off offensive rating or usg%/ast%. The other guy, Davis, should absolutely be considered because of his contributions on both ends of the court. (He might be the first two-way elite big man to enter the league since Tim Duncan, unless you love Yao Ming’s defense or champion someone else.) Due to arbitrary, unofficial rules, he won’t be seriously considered for the MVP because for most of the season his team was out of the playoff race and ballots are decided before the season ends. This is stupid, and he should still be top five even if they had missed the playoffs. No player is worth 45+ wins on his own. Don’t ignore a candidate because his team is under 50 wins. We already have a reward for winning games: it’s called the playoffs where the ultimate goal is the title.

Figuring out the order here, I have LeBron fifth because of his slow start and his refractory period in the middle of the season where he missed a handful of games. Plus his defense has been lazy far too often. Davis has been an impressive scorer, but he’s not the playmaker the other guys are and his defense isn’t perfect, even if his length and quickness are terrifying, so he’s fourth. Where my ballot is unique is in having Paul over Harden, but I think it’s logical: I see Paul and Harden as fairly equal on offense at the very least. (My own metric has Paul over Harden, for what it’s worth.) After all, Paul had a masterful season at point guard, one of the best ever, in running the best offense in the league even with Griffin’s injury and Jordan’s shooting issues. I also think it’s reasonable to say Paul is a better defender, and since they played roughly the same amount of minutes, he was therefore more valuable.

Curry’s the most valuable player because his combination of scoring/gravity/playmaking is off-the-charts this season. He warps the court to his team’s advantage, drawing in defenders because of his mystical ability to hit shots off the dribble with accuracy. It’s not a cheap skill either and it makes him an especially useful player for great teams because of his efficiency, passing, and how he’s able to have an impact without hogging the ball. Additionally, his defense has improved, and he’s picked up a large number of steals. He deserves the award as the primary force on one of the best team’s ever.

Ballot:
Stephen Curry
Chris Paul
James Harden
Anthony Davis
LeBron James

Remember, Curry is not just a shooter. He’s a wonderful dribbler and passer too. Here’s a link to the videos for every assist he had in the last game of the season. Notice how he passes quickly and hooks the ball to the corner with ease while remaining a threat to score — that flummoxes even the best defenses.

Apr 18, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) reacts after making a three point basket during the first quarter against the Dallas Mavericks in game one of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

All-NBA Teams

I argued for the first-team guys in the previous section, so I’l just defend their positions quickly: I wanted the best five guys on the first-team, and it makes basketball sense to use Harden at the 3 as SG and SF are often interchangeable and the Pelicans use Davis at center frequently.

I assume that my second-team is unique. Most reasonable people would agree that both Leonard and Green are defensive player of the year candidates, and since they are pretty good on offense — Green as a stretch 4 with nice passing skills should seal that — I don’t think it’s crazy to say they’re both top ten players. Compare Green to Noah last season, where Noah won DPOTY and got a spot on first-team all-NBA (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=greendr01&y1=2015&p2=noahjo01&y2=2014&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=). They’re comparable in terms of shot volume and accuracy; Noah has a big edge on assists but Green’s capable there and he has a big advantage in floor spacing. Noah blocked more shots and grabbed more boards, but Green had more steals and guarded more perimeter guys. Thus, if Noah can be first-team, it’s fine to say Green can worthy of a spot on the second-team.

I have Westbrook behind those other guys because he’s been gambling too much on defense, he missed some time, and his highlight games are probably overstating his impact. One issue I’d throw out there is his rebounding is not as valuable as it appears because he is essentially padding his totals by taking the boards afforded to him by his big men boxing out other players — he wants the ball so he can race up court, so he’ll cut out the middle man. Nevertheless, he’s still good enough that he should be on the second-team. Marc Gasol is a guy who doesn’t need an argument; I’ll just note his defense has slipped overall so I don’t think he has a solid MVP/first-team case. (Strangely, the Grizzlies have defended much better with their bench, particularly with Nick Calathes, and Kosta Koufos.)

My toughest choices were which spots should be given to which corresponding point guards because there are a handful of worthy guys. I have John Wall on the second-team due to his playmaking skills, scoring, defense, and heavy minutes. Irving’s on the third-team, as he’s been a force on an excellent offense. I actually have Lowry on the team as well, which is probably a surprise. But I’m looking at the whole season, not just the last third, and he’s a better defender than Lillard and does more on offense than many other guards, including surviving a period where Toronto was without DeRozan.

Millsap, Aldridge and Duncan round out third-team all-NBA. Paul Millsap, via some of the numbers out there and my opinion, is the best player on Atlanta and had a better all-around year than any other remaining power forward. Aldridge sneaks in under the wire due to him being a good defender and an offensive fulcrum, and the fact that a number of forwards were injured or had down years. Lastly, Duncan is still one of the better defenders out there, missed few games, and is pretty skilled on offense (obviously.)

1st team:
Chris Paul
Stephen Curry
James Harden
LeBron James
Anthony Davis

2nd team:
John Wall
Russell Westbrook
Kawhi Leonard
Draymond Green
Marc Gasol

3rd team:
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Paul Millsap
LaMarcus Aldridge
Tim Duncan

Apologies to: Lillard, who had a shooting slump and needs to work on his defense; Cousins, who missed time and made too many typical Cousins mistakes like fouling out and picking up technicals; a handful of two-way guards like Klay and Butler, who I don’t’ think were as good on defense overall as most think this season; DeAndre Jordan, who was quite valuable but makes too many mistakes on defense and whose free throw handicap makes it tough sometimes to operate with him; Kevin Love, who was absolutely essential to one of the best teams, and a few of the best lineups, and got attacked vociferously by the media; Kyle Korver with one of the best shooting seasons ever; and Gordon Hayward, who quietly had an outstanding season as a scorer/playmaker without much help.

Kyle Lowry absolutely deserved the all-star spot and when fully engaged he’s a phenomenal guard. He can bully smaller guards, getting to line in this clip here versus the Hornets. He’s a nifty passer, like this bounce pass to Johnson, and nets a fair number of assists. He also picks up a huge number of charges and draws other offensive fouls, which is very valuable.

April 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) grabs a rebound against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Pelicans 97-87. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive Awards

I could go into some more complex reasoning behind Draymond for Defensive Player of the Year, but I’ll keep it simple: he played big minutes for the league’s best defense and his team clearly depended on his defense. I wouldn’t say he’s the first perimeter guy to win it, if he does, since Artest, however: he plays at power forward and they often play him at center. He’s got a huge wingspan, and unless you think guys block shots with the top of their heads and not their hands height isn’t too much of an issue. He’s not a beefy guy, sure, but there are plenty of lithe winners of the award, like Camby. In fact, we can compare his size and versatility to a young Dennis Rodman, who checked a wide variety of stars in the playoffs and flew around the court like a sentry.

After Green, I think the worthy candidates are Bogut, Gobert, Duncan, and Kawhi Leonard. Bogut would deserve the award if it weren’t for his inability to play more minutes. He’s one of the best rim protectors (https://fansided.com/stats/rim-protection/) and rebounders in the league, and the Warriors defend at their best when he’s on the court. For what it’s worth, he’s leading in defensive RPM (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM) and defensive BPM (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_leaders.html).  Leonard holds the crown of best ball-thief, and he does this without gambling. He’s also a good rebounder and can hound even the best scorers. He and Tony Allen are the only two perimeter defenders I would describe with having legitimately terrifying and game-changing defense, so they’re both first-team. Choosing from the three centers, both Bogut and Gobert are premier rim protectors. Bogut, even with the low minute total, gets the edge due to all the tricks and experience he has — plus/minus stats love his defense. Duncan and Gobert’s minutes are fairly equal, but Duncan just doesn’t have the impact of the Stifle Tower, who has now given name to the pads assistants hold up at practice to simulate a shot-blocker. I would have considered Leonard more if he had higher minutes, by the way.

Thus, the first-team is pretty straight-forward except for the fifth spot: Tony Allen, Leonard, Green, and Bogut. It was tough finding another guard who really deserved it. Some guys, like Klay and Butler, expend a lot more energy on offense now, and a handful of point guards, like Lowry, Paul, and Wall, are pretty good but they’re not playing consistently great, lockdown defense, probably due to their large roles on offense and their size. Danny was the last guy remaining who I thought played great defense on a regular basis and was out on the court for a large amount of time. Filling out the two spots on second-team, I went with Iguodala and Middleton. I would have gone with Matthews here if he hadn’t gotten injured, but both those guys were ace defenders for two of the best defenses in the league and their team was best when they were on the court. The last two spots, I believe, were easy choices. Anthony Davis played on a terrible defense, but it wasn’t his fault and there weren’t any other Green/Kawhi-level guys to take his spot. Even with Ibaka’s injury, he still played 2100 minutes, and I couldn’t justify another forward above him given his rim protection value. (Unlike Zach Lowe, I’m not making the odd decision to move Tony Allen to SF to open up another spot for a guard — no offense, but guys like Wall are not more valuable on defense than Ibaka or Davis.)

Apologies to Nerlens Noel here, who absolutely should get some consideration for propping up a team of D-leaguers and hitting a historic steal/block threshold. Alas, he’s a center, and that’s the deepest position.

Defensive Player of the Year:
Draymond Green
Andrew Bogut
Rudy Gobert

1st team:
Tony Allen
Danny Green
Kawhi Leonard
Draymond Green
Andrew Bogut

2nd team:
Khris Middleton
Andre Iguodala
Serge Ibaka
Anthony Davis
Rudy Gobert

Green’s weakness is against beefier post guys, but his wingspan lets him compete and challenge shots, and here he fronts a post by Marc Gasol and steals the ball. He’s also quick enough to contain slashers like Gallinari, who gets stuffed in this clip.

Mar 25, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic (44) passes the ball against the Toronto Raptors at the Air Canada Centre. Chicago defeated Toronto 116-103. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Rookie Awards

For a while, there was no point discussion this award because Wiggins was going to win it no matter what happened given the hype he had in high school and the heavy minutes he was carrying, leading to a rookie leading PPG average. If we ignore his already famous name and look at what he actually provided this season, there’s not much there. He was a mediocre scorer without much playmaking and couldn’t arguably be a positive force on defense — Minnesota did have the league’s worst defense.

The only rookies who I saw as providing something valuable to a team were Noel and Mirotic with Smart and Payton in the mix, along with maybe another player or two. Noel was the best defensive rookie since … Duncan? But he struggled shooting and it’s tough to extract how good his offense was from one of the worst offensive teams of all-time. Any metric that has to sum to a team’s offensive rating is probably underrating him, as it’s not his fault the offense was so bad and the team forced him to take jump shots a lot of centers don’t have to take. He’s also a surprisingly good passer when he gets to opportunity.

Yet I have Mirotic ranked first here because he was absolutely a positive force on a playoff team and had to fight for minutes with Pau, Noah, and Taj Gibson. The rules don’t say a rookie has to be young, so I’m not going to dock him there. After those two, I have Marcus Smart ranked third due to his defense and the fact that even he’s a better shooter than Payton, who looks like the next Rondo. Every aforementioned rookie makes the first-team. Wiggins doesn’t rate well in a few respects, but he took on a huge role on a team missing a few pieces (since he’s not performing well in those duties he’s not at the top of the list.) After that it’s tough culling a list without just restoring to a guy who simply was just on the court for a while as a rookie, which isn’t a common thing.

Jordan Clarkson was borderline electric for the ailing Lakers, so he’s in. Nurkic looks like an interior force already, so he’s got a spot. Then I have to resort to Bogdanovic, who got some time with the Nets as a shooter. Rodney Hood gets a spot too as he earned a spot on Utah’s starting lineup, although that says more about their problems finding guards. For the last guy, I guess I’ll go with Langston Galloway, who became a real contributor to a sorry New York Knick club.

Rookie of the Year
Nikola Mirotic
Nerlens Noel
Marcus Smart

1st team:
Elfrid Payton
Marcus Smart
Andrew Wiggins
Nikola Mirotic
Nerlens Noel

2nd team:
Jordan Clarkson
Rodney Hood
Bojan Bogdanovic
Langston Galloway
Jusuf Nurkic

There’s probably no more quintessential Mirotic play than pump-faking a three-pointer on a good defender and getting to the line for three foul shots and draining them. He did this versus Millsap last week.

Mar 28, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) attempts to box out Oklahoma City Thunder center Enes Kanter (34) during the first half at EnergySolutions Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

Sixth Man of the Year

I’ll focus on the player-only awards here for brevity. For Sixth Man of the Year, I’m adhering to the rules: if you play more games on the bench than in the starting lineup, you qualify. Thus, Rudy Gobert wins in a landslide. If you want the award to mean contributions while on the bench or only guys who have the sixth man role for a full season, filling in only when there’s an injury, then let’s try to change it. After him, I’ll go with Iguodala, who truly had a sixth man role as he was better than a guy starting over him, Barnes, and helped to lead the bench units with his ballhandling. Mirotic gets the third slot; he provided the kind of scoring spark you think of with sixth men. Lou Williams was close, but he’s the prototypical scoring guard in a point guard’s body and has to be hidden on defense. Isaiah Thomas is the superior version of guys like Lou Williams because his efficiency is consistently excellent, but he missed a few games. Honorable mention also goes to Josh Smith, a darkhorse candidate in Houston, and Patrick Patterson, whose value really wasn’t far from Lou’s due to his hot shooting and stretch 4 capability.

Sixth Man of the Year:
Rudy Gobert
Andre Iguodala
Nikola Mirotic

Gobert’s last block party was against Houston, where he had three blocks. Ariza tried to climb the ladder and got thwarted, Howard posted him up and saw his attempt spiked, and Harden failed to convert at the rim — those were three high-quality, difficult blocks.

April 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans head coach Monty Williams (right) instructs forward Anthony Davis (23, left) during the second quarter in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Pelicans 97-87. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Most Improved Player of the Year

The award for most improved should get more acclaim and consideration. We’re awarding guys for improvement and can hand these out to guys who may not make an all-star team — that’s nothing to ignore. But it’s tough dealing with a league with a bunch of a super young players who should naturally improve anyway. The rules state that only rookies are ineligible. I realize I’ve already given Gobert some awards, but I can’t rule him out: he truly improved immensely, both on offense and defense, and went from a guy few people cared about to one the league’s most talked about young players. It should be his award, even if you adjust for age and experience. He improved so much his team gave away Enes Kanter, a previously coveted prospect people assumed would be part of the Jazz frontcourt for years to come. For the second spot, I’m going with an out-of-left-field guy: Anthony Davis, who I believe took the leap from promising young guy who had some interesting numbers but little impact to bona fide superstar. Klay Thompson brings up the rear for having made a big improvement on offense without losing his defense. Apologies to Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton, and Whiteside, who’s shown prodigious shotblocking and rebounding before yet only got an opportunity this season.

Most Improved Player of the Year
Rudy Gobert
Anthony Davis
Klay Thompson

Gobert improved tremendously on offense, as last season he was pretty rough. Here are three of his basket in the last game. He’s a good screener now, and with his immense size he makes a great wall. He’s an excellent finisher now too, making him a dangerous threat, and he cleans up on garbage points by crashing the boards.

Apr 19, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) saves a ball from going out of bounds during the first quarter against the San Antonio Spurs in game one of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Experimental SPM Metric: 2015 Results (min. 1000 MP)

Wrapping up this season, here are the full results for my statistical plus/minus model ordered by a rough value measure, which is simply a replacement level proxy weighed by minutes played. There are still some issues to iron out, but it’s better than, say, PER and covers a large number of variables. So yes, Curry is on top followed by Paul and Harden — that makes sense. And there are two Knicks at the bottom. It’s everywhere in between that’s tough to measure. I’ll note that Cousins’ defense is probably being overrated here, as he grabs a ton of boards, gambles a bit for steals, and drew the most charges in the league, which I find to be extremely valuable. LaMarcus Aldridge is arguably the most underrated — his defense isn’t bad at all and it’s tough to suss out the value of his offense given his inefficiency. Also, generally as a rule some aspects of team and man-to-man defense are still difficult to measure even with SportVU data. If you break a team’s defense, the guy you were defending can drive inside and score on a teammate, making the blame hard to distribute. Concurrently, there are still some missing pieces on offense, like screens/picks.

That’s it for this regular season. We’re now marching into the heart of the playoffs, validating the season by empirically searching for a true champion. Let’s just not forget all the stories and lessons over the past few months. The season is a record of history, not a box of files to shred to make room for whatever’s immediately next on the horizon.