Previewing the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies
By Justin
Apr 13, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Jarnell Stokes (1) fouls Golden State Warriors forward David Lee (10) during the fourth quarter at Oracle Arena. The Golden State Warriors defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 111-107. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Key Numbers:
Warriors rating with Bogut: +11.1
Grizzlies rating with Jeff Green: +4.81
The angle on this matchup is that it’s the space-and-pace Warriors versus the ground-and-pound Grizzlies — it’s new-school versus old-school, and skill versus size. But the Warriors had the better defense in the regular season, and there’s nothing soft about Bogut or the runner-up in Defensive Player of the Year voting in Draymond Green. They bring Iguodala off the bench — this is not the mid-00’s Phoenix Suns. The narrative here should be, how does Memphis beat a team that runs an breakneck, three-pointer happy offense that still somehow defends better too?
The best hope for Memphis at the surface level is Zach Randolph’s post-game against the slight Green. One of the best things about playing with Marc Gasol for Zach is that other teams can’t simply move their brutish centers onto Zach because Marc is just aggressive enough in the post to take advantage of smaller defenders. People mistakenly assumed Draymond was a perimeter player this season, and even basketball-reference labels him a small forward, but he’s got the wingspan of a big man and the strength to hold his own. Zach averaged a mere 12 and 6 versus the Warriors this season in about 25 MPG. Green can handle him, and Bogut will switch onto him for a different look for a few possessions.
Of course, there’s another factor: Conley suffered a facial fracture and has been listed as doubtful in the first game, and given the severity of the injury even if he plays he’ll be at a reduced level. Barring a Warriors injury of their own, there is little hope for Memphis, who’s looking for a true upset. There’s no evidence they have a chance, as they dropped two of their three games versus the Warriors in the regular season and may struggle to score for long stretches against an elite squad.
The Warriors, as good as they are, rely on Curry’s otherworldly shooting and playmaking. The attention he draws opens up the court and he’s a fantastic passer now. He can fire three’s off the dribble at will, making a scary high percentage of them. Three-pointers are not supposed to be a shot a player can manufacture at almost any moment of the game, as it gives his team an efficient option far from the basket and puts a high amount of stress on the defense. Curry changed the rules of basketball — and it makes him even more dangerous against great teams, because there’s not too much they can do to stop him. In the graph below, I have Curry’s efficiency plotted against the strength of the opposing defense. There’s a lot of noise, and Curry is essentially defensively agnostic, shooting well no matter who it is.
I have what I’ve termed a “v-stat” for efficiency that shows how a player’s efficiency varies with the defense. Normally, a player has a v-stat for efficiency of 1 or roughly around there. It’s a one-to-one relationship in most cases. However, Curry’s v-stat was 0.47 including the playoffs so far — that’s absurd, as it means his efficiency falls half as much as you’d expect, and it would make him a uniquely valuable player. Memphis’ hope is that Tony Allen, a scary a perimeter defender as we’ve seen in years, can slow him down. But it probably won’t happen, and if it does Curry has plenty of options to pass to — this is an amazing team.
Odds: Warriors 92.9%
(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)