Previewing the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Clippers

Mar 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin (32) knocks a pass away from Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the second half at Staples Center. Left is Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3). Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Key Numbers:

Rockets rating with Howard: +6.55

Clippers rating with Griffin: +7.90

The Clippers potentially have probably the toughest path to the finals ever in NBA history. After a grueling seven-game series against the defending champions, they’ll have to face a sharp Houston team with a healthy Dwight Howard. And if all goes well, they’ll be going up against the greatest team (the Warriors, strictly by the numbers so far) since the Jordan-era BUlls. Houston might be known for being led by a bearded-flopper surrounded by a barrage of three-pointers, but they’re a surprisingly good defensive team now with Howard and Josh Smith in the fold. Given how well they play with Howard – they’re a surprising 4 points better when he plays – and how they beat the Mavericks by an average of 14 points per game, they should not be taken lightly.

Unfortunately, a potential classic series could be limited by Chris Paul’s availability, as he hurt his hamstring in a near career-defining game seven. Based on the reports I’ve seen, he’ll be a game-time decision in game one and probably won’t play. With what we know about Paul’s backups and how spectacular his play has been, this injury can single-handedly decide the series. I’ve assumed Paul will miss the first game and will have slightly reduced minutes the rest of the way, which translates into the Rockets having nearly 80% odds on winning the first game rather than something closer to 50/50. Without their floor general, they’ll have to rely on extended minutes from Crawford, who’s basically a DH now, and Austin Rivers – there’s a Grand Canyon sized disparity between the wizardly of Chris Paul and the coach’s son, sadly.

The silver lining is that Paul helped to defeat the Spurs while battling the injury and when he’s on the court there are few others who play as well as him and few lineups as effective as their starting lineup. General statistics, like a team’s point differential, can miss out on some of the nuances, and the Clippers have a good counter to Houston’s offense. Houston is a transition-heavy team with a few players who are more comfortable in fast breaks, like Brewer, but the Clippers had the best offense during the regular season; made baskets translate into tougher opportunities to push the pace. Also, they’re an extremely low turnover team, even with all the highlight plays. Chris Paul is a master in the art of limiting turnovers even though he handles the ball so frequently.

Referring to the above graph, Paul is basically on an island with Lawson when it comes to limiting turnovers despite being active in generating assists. (Cousins is too, but not in a positive way.) They need Chris’ one-man offense, including the now lethal midrange jumper, to take down the Rockets. Otherwise the MVP runner-up in James Harden will advance to the conference finals.

Odds: Clippers 52.7%

(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)