Hack-A-DeAndre Jordan by the Numbers

May 10, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (6) shoots a free throw against Houston Rockets in game three of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Hack-A-Whoever has been the topic du jour in these playoffs—Kevin Pelton, Seth Partnow and Justin Willard have all written statistical analyses of the strategy in the past few weeks. Last night, Kevin McHale and the Houston Rockets fed the machine, sending DeAndre Jordan to the free throw line 34 times.

A single game is not a rigorous sample to provide thorough commentary on the topic, but since everyone is talking about it, I thought it would be worth pulling the numbers together to look at exactly what we’re talking about. Analysis of the strategy focuses on three elements—likelihood of free throws to be made, likelihood of missed free throws to turn into offensive rebounds and how a set defense affects the offensive efficiency of the fouling team’s ensuing possession.

Jordan made 41 percent of his free throws in Game 4 and the Rockets secured the defensive rebound on every single second miss. That means the Los Angeles Clippers’ offensive efficiency on the 17 possessions that ended with intentional fouls was 0.82 points per possession. That’s not good, but the optics of 20 missed free throws obscures exactly how “not good” it is. For reference, 0.82 points per possessions is the same mark LeBron James averaged as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll during the regular season, according to the NBA’s play type statistics. It’s easy to forget how high the expected value of free throw attempts is, relative to all other possession types and even for bad free throw shooters.

In addition, while Jordan’s free throw accuracy was similar to expectations, the Clippers not getting a single offensive rebound off his misses was surprising. According to Seth’s analysis, the Clippers have been rebounding just over 20 percent of Jordan’s missed free throws this season. Eight of Jordan’s misses were second free throw attempts meaning they were offensive rebounding chances. Even a single offensive rebound and made basket last night would have raised the Clippers’ efficiency on Hack-A possessions to 0.94.

On offensive possessions immediately following Jordan’s free throw attempts, the Rockets scored 17 points for an offensive efficiency of 1.00 points per possession. For comparison, they averaged about 1.04 points per possession during the regular season. In attempting to disrupt the offensive flow of the Clippers they may have damaged their own as well.

In the end, the only number that really matters here is the 33-point margin of victory for the Clippers. In a sample size of this one game, Hack-A-Jordan was a Glen Davis-sized flop.