Rethinking Michael Pineda

It’s time to throw out everything we thought we knew about Michael Pineda out the window, and start from scratch. Usually, it’s best not to overreact to a couple of good outings from a pitcher who’s only ever made it through one full season as a starter, but when you strike out 16 batters and walk zero over seven innings, usually gets thrown out the window as well.

After his otherworldly performance against Baltimore on Sunday, Pineda has jumped squarely into the upper tier of AL pitchers. The buying window may have been slammed shut, but if you can get him at a fair price, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

Pineda’s always carried a lofty pedigree, but injuries and suspensions have prevented him from getting consistent innings and have clouded his true value. The general perception of him after last year was along these lines: huge talent, nasty stuff when locked in, but gives up too many walks/home runs and carries too much risk to draft as a #1 or #2 arm.

Going into the season, fantasypros.com’s expert consensus rankings had Pineda as the 47th-best starting pitcher, sandwiched right between Jered Weaver (owner of a 4.98 ERA) and Mike Fiers (owner of a 5.42 ERA). Looking at those rankings a quarter of the way through the season, you would be better off throwing every pitcher past #20 into a ball hopper and reading them out like bingo numbers.

Here’s the key stat: through six weeks, Michael Pineda leads all starting pitchers with 1.9 WAR, according to Fangraphs. Through his first seven starts, he has posted a 2.72 ERA, 10.49 K/9 and a 0.53BB/9—good enough to rank as the 6th most valuable fantasy pitcher thus far. Pineda’s career walk rate is around two batters an inning, so that BB/9 will inflate a little over the rest of the season, but it appears that his command has improved significantly.

While that’s plenty good, the peripherals suggest that Pineda has actually been unlucky thus far. 46IP is a small sample size, but Pineda’s BABIP is .336 and his HR/FB rate has actually worsened from last year to this year.

The home runs will be inevitable in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, and the wins will slow down once the Yankees regress, but it’s definitely time to reassess the Michael Pineda’s value as a fantasy starter. If the season were starting tomorrow, I would draft him ahead of Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Julio Teheran, and James Shields, to name a few.