Analyzing a Ty Lawson for Isaiah Thomas Trade Idea
Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
In a Grantland column last week, Zach Lowe spent the bulk of the section on the Boston Celtics off-season speculating on a possible trade by the Celtics to pick up Denver Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson. According to Lowe, the Nuggets and Celtics discussed a Lawson deal at the trade deadline only for Boston to abandon it when Isaiah Thomas became available for a cheaper price from the Phoenix Suns.
Even though this is just speculation I thought it would be an interesting exercise to evaluate the trade idea[1. Especially in terms of relative value in light of the rising salary cap]. Presumably any trade bringing Lawson to Boston would send Thomas and possibly one other asset back out to Denver, and for the sake of simplicity that’s how I will look at the trade given that Thomas would almost certainly be traded even if Denver was not his destination.
Last year was a down year for Lawson, in a number of different ways including both on court production, Denver’s team performance and an off-the-court DUI arrest. Lawson has a fairly long history of high-level production in the NBA and is only 27, so we should expect some bounce back in his numbers, although most studies I have done or seen indicate that last year’s numbers carry more weight than earlier years.
In terms of one number metrics, box score based metrics tend to view Lawson and Thomas as pretty close in terms of efficiency, with a slight edge to the high scoring Thomas. While ESPN’s RPM, both this year’s version and the long term predictive version, give a slight edge to Lawson due to in large part to defensive concerns with the height challenged Thomas[2. RPM uses a height factor in its defensive prior. Height is a legitimate concern defensively with Thomas, though Lawson is also undersized and it’s hard to gauge the effect of an outlier like Thomas]. Below are the three year weighted average for Win Shares and Box Plus Minus via Basketball Reference and RPM and Long term RPM via ESPN and Jeremias Engelmann
Both Lawson and Thomas are productive at the point guard position and have a similar per game minute averages over their careers. However, they have pretty significantly different styles. Looking at Seth Partnow’s point guard personality test Lawson is more of a traditional distributor, while Thomas is more of a shoot first, spacing guard. This difference shown in the image below adapted, from Partnow’s original post.
The image above uses Thomas’s numbers from his stint in Boston only, his style in Phoenix was similar, if less extreme with more play off the ball and fewer drives to the basket. In both cases Thomas scores as more of a shoot first point guard and more of floor spacer than Lawson. Lawson’s style is more in the line of a traditional distributing point with a higher assist opportunity to shot ratio and more drives rather than three-point attempts.
There’s an argument to be made about whether it is inherently easier to build a team around a distributing point guard like Lawson rather than Thomas. My instinct is that that really depends on the players around them, with a traditional big like, for example, DeMarcus Cousins a distributor maybe more advantageous. Both players are most effective with the ball in their hands, though Lawson is more likely looking to pass. Unlike fellow distributing point guards Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo, Lawson is a capable shooter off the ball taking 2.0 catch-and-shoot attempts per 40 minutes and hitting for 1.01 points per attempt. Thomas, on the other hand is a serious threat off the ball; taking 4.8 catch-and-shoot attempts per forty minutes and scoring at a scorching clip of a 1.22 points per attempt last year[3. Per NBA.com].
In addition, for the Celtics there is another fit issue bringing in Lawson, which is the development of Marcus Smart. Smart played well overall as a rookie, especially on defense, but struggled as the primary ball handler. Smart can contribute as a player off the ball, but the scenario where he becomes a star is one where he is able to develop into a primary ball handler. Acquiring Lawson would mean moving Smart either out of the starting line up or further reducing his reps on the ball. Not a deal breaker, certainly, but a consideration for a team still in rebuilding mode.
The Big One Number Metric
In a podcast with Ian Levy, Aaron Barzilai alluded to the fact that in the end all player acquisitions come down to one number and that’s the dollars in the contract.
Both Lawson and Thomas are in attractive contracts given their age, production and the projected changes in the salary cap. In e-mail discussions with Daniel Myers, the creator of Box Plus Minus and administrator at the APBR forum, we discussed the current prices of production for rookies and free agents as well as the implications of the rising salary cap. According to Myers’ query of Basketball Reference data the price of value above replacement (VORP), last year was approximately $2.8 million per win above replacement for all free agents and just under $1.8 million for players on first round rookie contracts[4. This was converting value above replacement (VORP) to wins by multiplying by 2.7. Interestingly Bird rights free agents, those re-signed by their current team were somewhat better values on average than free agents, though this advantage largely disappeared when big misses were eliminated from both free agent types. That indicates a possible increased likelihood for big misses due to less knowledge of the player by the signing outside team or unforeseen fit issues, ie. Lance Stevenson or Rajon Rondo.].
Of course the price per win is set to go up with the rise of the cap. Over the next three years the cap is set to explode, which will bid up the price of free agents, meanwhile some productive veteran players will still be on what become relative bargain contracts. Meanwhile having productive younger players under rookie contracts will become even more valuable because the rookie scale is not set to rise with the salary cap.
Below is a table with the projected salary cap, the price of new free agents in wins assuming a commensurate rise in free agent price. Note that the price of wins above replacement in the free agent market goes up slightly higher than the cap increase because of the lower rise in the rookie scale.
In this table is the comparable price of Lawson and Thomas’s production estimated using BPM under their existing contracts[5. I am making a simple comparison based on average production over the last three years, not necessarily a projection]. The key figure is the simple salary divided by wins above replacement (WAR), the lower the figure the more of a bargain the salary appears to be. During their contracts both players average production is below the expected free agent price. In the third year, however, Lawson becomes a free agent and price of his contract is assumed to go to the market rate.
BPM is an approximation of value, like any one number metric, using ESPN’s WAR based on RPM the difference in dollars per WAR is very close during the contract years. But there is still the expected surplus production in Thomas’s last remaining year when the cap is projected to take a second jump[6. Barring a significant work stoppage], which makes Thomas’s contract easy to deal at any time.
Lawson has generally been more valued around the league, though that gap is narrower after his down year and Thomas’ second place finish in the Sixth Man of the year voting. Defense for Thomas is a real concern, but Lawson is not really a stopper in his own right. Looking at their relative contracts, production and risks, it is hard to see where giving Denver a significant asset in a trade of Thomas for Lawson is in the Celtics interest.