About Those Jump Shooting Teams

May 5, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) shoots a jump shot against the Washington Wizards during the second half in game two of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Wizards 106-90. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The one-time struggles of the Hawks and Warriors during the second round of the playoffs brought out the same, predictable, indictment of “soft, jump shooting teams.” Without belaboring the merits of that line of argument (I think Adam did a fine job exploding this line of thought here), there often appears to be a mistaken underpinning of that point of view. Jump shots, and specifically three-pointers are often set up as being in opposition to or taking away from getting “tough” hoops at the rim. While it’s not hard to find instances, and many of them, of teams becoming three-happy, launching several quick and ill-considered long bombs in succession, this is an exception rather than the rule.

You would have to have been living under a rock to not recognize the NBA has moved towards the three-pointer and done so in a big way. The 2014/15 regular season was the fourth consecutive year setting a record for most threes attempted, and the nine highest such seasons are the nine most recent seasons. What is far less discussed is where are these threes coming from? With overall field goal attempts staying relatively stable[1. Since the line was moved back out to 23’9 above the break for the 97/98 season, the league has averaged between 79.7 and 83.6 field goals attempted per team per game according to Basketball Reference.], more threes mean fewer twos. Of course not all twos are created equally, a layup and a 20-footer have a gap of a half-point per attempt, give or take.[2. The NBA as a whole shot 60.1% from the restricted area and 39.6% from non-painted area two-point range in 2014/15.]

The increase in threes has come almost exclusively at the expense of longer twos. The chart below shows the increase in three point rate while the rate of close shots has held remarkably constant, and in fact the proportion of two pointers which come at the rim as opposed to less-desirable locations has risen along with threes.

In other words, the shots being given up to shoot these threes aren’t, on balance, particularly good ones.

This isn’t to say shifting to longer shots hasn’t had any negative effects on offenses. The last four seasons have also seen the four lowest free throw rates of the modern era, and offensive rebound rates have have dropped by a fifth over the last 20 years[3. Some of this is by choice as coaches like Doc Rivers have begun actively instructing their teams to focus much more on transition defense than offensive rebounds.] . The latter is demonstrably related to the increase in threes to a degree, as longer shots lead to fewer offensive rebounds:

Further, it’s certainly plausible that the decrease in both offensive rebounds and the sort of Jordan-esque midrange post up plays which have fallen out of favor with the increased emphasis on three-heavy spread pick-and-roll play have played a large roll in reducing free throws.

Still, the point remains, threes and scoring inside can be much more a “yes/and” rather than an “either/or” thing. It’s only one example, but the Warriors and Wizards took a nearly identical proportion of their shots from the restricted area this season. However, Golden State was (only) 7th in three point rate while Washington was 28th. They shot about the same number of jump shots, Golden State just shot better jump shots, with better shooters taking them. It’s probably no accident that Washington’s unexpectedly good postseason offensive play has come as a result of replacing long twos with threes.

It’s certainly fair for commentators to warn against one-dimensional offenses in the playoffs. A team which only tries to shoot long jumpers is as vulnerable as a team like Memphis which shoots very few. Further, those “tough” points on offensive boards and free throws that a profligate three-point shooting team might miss out on could easily matter more in a more physical, more fully scouted environment. Still, a recognition that shooting a three-pointer doesn’t necessarily or even usually come at the expense of a shot near the basket would clarify the discussion of what styles of offense do and don’t work in May and June.