Analyzing LeBron James’ Shots

May 12, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) shoots in the third quarter against the Chicago Bulls in game five of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

We’re proud to present this guest post from Positive Residual. That moniker (@presidual) is the nom de plume of a Los Angeles sports enthusiast who follows the cutting edge of baseball and basketball. A policy analyst by training, he writes occasionally for The Cauldron and at medium.com/@presidual.

Notwithstanding his late-game heroics against the Chicago Bulls, LeBron James has had a subpar playoff run. His true shooting and effective field goal percentages of .486 and .438 are the lowest postseason marks of his career. They also fall below his regular-season totals — unlike last year, when his playoff performance actually improved upon his 77-game campaign.

What’s the reason for James’s slide? It’s a question far too complex for a single post to answer, but we can at least start figuring out where his troubles might lie.

The following tables[1. After downloading the raw data from NBA Savant, I categorized the shot logs using the NBA.com/Stats labels. Although the bottom-line figures were identical, some of the disaggregated results were different (yet still close enough to give me confidence in the analysis above). In the end, I opted to use my own categorized shot logs because (a) it allowed me to cross the shot and defender distances and (b) there were some inconsistencies in the NBA.com/Stats data that I couldn’t reconcile (e.g., James’s Stats Profile shows 1,279 FGA during the regular season, while his Shots Dashboard has 1,261).] break down James’s field goal attempts by both shot and defender distances. They help us see where he’s shooting the ball, the extent to which he’s being contested, and whether anything has changed between the regular season and the playoffs.

During the regular season, when James had 1,279 field goal attempts, 53% were contested, with 16% deemed “very tight.” Approximately 46% were less than ten feet from the basket. His most frequent shots were tightly guarded attempts below five feet (11.73%), followed by tightly guarded attempts from five feet up to ten feet (9.93%).

During the playoffs, James has seen some notable changes in his shot distribution. Of the 243 field goal attempts in the first two rounds, 58% have been contested, with a quarter in the “very tight” category. There has been an increase in midrange jumpers, as 26% have come in the 20–24 feet area. Perhaps unsurprisingly, James has taken fewer three-point shots: whereas 27% of his field goal attempts were from downtown during the regular season, only 20% have been from there during the playoffs.

James’s most frequent shots have changed as well. He has continued to attack the rim, but when he has done so, the defense has been very tight (15.23%). At the same time, he has increased his open field goal attempts from the 20–24 feet area (13.58%).

In and of themselves, shot selection has limited significance; it also matters how well James shoots in different situations. During the regular season, James had a 62% field goal percentage when he was very tightly guarded within five feet of the basket. His open 20–24 foot jumpers went in at a 36% clip.

During the playoffs, these field goal percentages have declined to 57% and 30%, respectively. Indeed, as James has seen greater proportions of overall shots amid very tight defense, his accuracy has diminished. Similarly, his open shots have suffered, too, making for a rather vicious cycle.

It remains to be seen whether James can take a turn for the better. Certainly, the small sample size of the postseason should give us pause before drawing any major conclusions (although many of these issues have been spotlighted before). But, as the Eastern Conference Finals commence this week, we should have heightened awareness of where the King needs to improve.