Highly Relatable Draft Lottery Odds
By Ian Levy
Mar 18, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio (9) takes a shot over the hand of Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17) during the first quarter of the Timberwolves 105-100 loss at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Tonight, highly-symbolic representatives from the sixteen non-playoff teams will gather together in a small room and whisper frantic prayers for deliverance. In theory, all sixteen teams have a chance at the top pick, but most have odds that are infinitesimal at best. However, even the teams at the top of the pyramid—the Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers—have odds that pale in comparison to the combined probabilities of the rest of the field.
The odds for each team are also not easily internalized. The numbers can be found with a simple Google search but, setting aside excitement and blind optimism, what does a probability of 1.7 percent look like? In an effort to help each fan base get a firm grasp on what their odds actually are, I’ve taken the liberty of converting each into a more easily relatable scenario with a similar probability:
Minnesota Timberwolves: 25.0%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Ricky Rubio makes a three-point attempt. Rubio made 25.5 percent of his three-pointers this season.
Apr 13, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; New York Knicks guard Shane Larkin (0) steals the ball from Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) in the third quarter at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
New York Knicks: 19.9%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Shane Larkin attacks in an isolation situation and turns the ball over. According to the NBA’s Play Type statistics, Larkin used 40 offensive possessions on isolations this season. He turned the ball over on 20 percent of those 40 possessions.
Apr 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward Jerami Grant (39) attempts a shot against Miami Heat forward Henry Walker (5) during the first quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia 76ers: 15.6%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Jermai Grant makes a pull-up jump shot. Grant attempted 32 jumpers off the dribble last season, making five—exactly 15.6 percent.
Apr 7, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard J.J. Reddick (4) moves past Los Angeles Lakers guard Jeremy Lin (left) during the fourth quarter at Staples Center. The Los Angeles Clippers won 105-100. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Lakers: 11.9%
Probabilistic Equivalent: The Lakers beat a Western Conference playoff team. This past season the Lakers were 3-30 against playoff teams in the Western Conference, for a win percentage of 10 percent.
Dec 6, 2014; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi (18) battles for control of a rebound with Orlando Magic forward Channing Frye (8) in the fourth quarter at Sleep Train Arena. The Magic defeated the Kings 105-96. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Orlando Magic: 8.8%
Probabilistic Equivalent: A shot is missed and Channing Frye gets the rebound. Frye finished this season with a total rebound percentage of 8.9 percent.
April 5, 2015; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) reacts during the third quarter against the Utah Jazz at Sleep Train Arena. The Jazz defeated the Kings 101-95. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Sacramento King: 6.3%
Probabilistic Equivalent: DeMarcus Cousins plays 15 consecutive games without fouling out. Cousins fouled out in 10 of his 59 games this season, meaning he did not foul out 83.1 percent of the time. The probability of playing in 15 games without fouling out once (0.831 ^ 15) works out to 6.2 percent.
Apr 8, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) controls the ball against Los Angeles Lakers forward Ed Davis (21) during the first half at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Nuggets: 4.3%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Kenneth Faried makes three consecutive mid-range jump shots. Faried made 35.2 percent of his mid-range shots this season. The probability of him making three-in-a-row (0.352 ^ 3) works out to about 4.4 percent.
Oct 7, 2014; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond (0) takes free throw against the Chicago Bulls at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Detroit Pistons: 2.8%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Andre Drummond makes four consecutive free throws. Drummond is a career 39.7 percent shooter from the free throw line. The probability of him making four in a row (0.397 ^ 4) is about 2.5 percent.
Mar 6, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets center Bismack Biyombo (8) tries to hold onto the ball during the first half against the Toronto Raptors at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Charlotte Hornets: 1.7%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Bismack Biyombo touches the ball and then records an assist. This season Biyombo recorded 16 assists on a grand total of 1,053 touches, or an assists on about 1.5 percent of his touches.
Apr 13, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat forward Michael Beasley (30) dribbles the ball past Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon (00) during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Heat: 1.1%
Probabilistic Equivalent: A Miami Heat offensive possession ends in a spot-up jump shot for Michael Beasley. The Miami Heat has 7,184 offensive possessions this season. According the to the NBA’s Play Type statistics, 78 of those were spot-ups for Beasley.
Feb 11, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Luke Babbitt (8) shoots over Indiana Pacers forward Luis Scola (4) during the second half of a game at the Smoothie King Center. The Pacers defeated the Pelicans 106-93.Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana Pacers: 0.8%
Probabilistic Equivalent: An opponent attempts a shot and Luis Scola blocks it. Scola finished the season with a total block percentage (the percentage of opponents’ shot attempts he blocked while on the floor) of exactly 0.8 percent.
Mar 18, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (20) looks to shoot the ball with 8 seconds left in the game against the Washington Wizards at EnergySolutions Arena. Washington Wizards won the game 88-84. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
Utah Jazz: 0.7%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Gordon Hayward makes five three-pointers in a row. Hayward shot 36.4 percent on three-pointers this season. The probability of him making five in a row (0.364 ^ 5) works out to about 0.64 percent.
Feb 23, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (3) prior to the game against the Boston Celtics at US Airways Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Phoenix Suns: 0.6%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Brandon Knight rebounds one of his teammates’ missed shots. After being traded to Phoenix, Knight had an offensive rebound percentage of just 0.6 percent.
Apr 15, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) flexes after he was fouled in the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder: 0.5%
Probabilistic Equivalent: Russell Westbrook plays a game and does not score double-digits. Westbrook has played in 507 career games and has failed to score double-digits in just two of them—about 0.4 percent.