Playoff Adjustments and the Conference Finalists

May 14, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) moves the ball as center Dwight Howard (12) provides the screen against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first half in game six of the second round of the NBA Playoffs. at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA’s regular season is a little bit different than the playoffs.  The postseason is more intense and the teams carry more pressure since there’s more on the line. There are also small stylistic differences between the regular season and the playoffs.  For example, the pace of play in the playoffs usually tends to slow down and there are fewer fast break opportunities.[1. League average pace actually increased this post season due solely to the Hack-A strategy.  Both the Mavericks and Rockets have more than 104 possessions per game this playoffs, a pace that would’ve led the league in the regular season.  The Clippers have played at 100.68 possessions per game, 4 more than they did in the regular season.  Most other teams have slowed their pace down quite a bit.]

Some teams are forced to dramatically alter their identities due to matchups.  The Wizards, who during the regular season shot 3’s on only 20% of their possessions, increased their 3-point attempt rate by 7.3%. That might not seem like a lot but that difference would’ve moved them from 28th to 14th in 3-point attempt rate during the regular season. The increase in 3-point attempts helped improve their ORtg by 2.1 points in the playoffs.

Part of the reason for the team’s improved 3-point attempt rate is due to a change in their rotation.  During the regular season, Paul Pierce shared a majority of his minutes with two legitimate post players, usually Marcin Gortat and Nene.  In the playoffs, the Wizards frequently played Pierce at the power forward spot alongside Otto Porter.  In fact, in the regular season, the trio of Bradley Beal, Paul Pierce, and Otto Porter logged just 19 minutes together.  In the playoffs, that trio logged 138 minutes and outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions.  It was the 7th most used three-man lineup in the Wizards’ rotation and one of the team’s most successful trios.

The four teams remaining all chosen or been forced into similar playoff adjustments, altering their game plans and doing things differently from the regular season.  Below are statistical differences between the 82 game schedule and postseason for each of the four remaining teams.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lebron has taken a lot of flack for his subpar (by his standards) playoff performance, especially in terms of scoring efficiency and turnover rate, but much of that might be the result of his increased work load.  Lebron has always been the anchor of every team he has played on but this season his playoff USG% is at 35.4, the 2nd highest playoff USG% of his career.

What’s more important is that that number is up 3.1 from his regular season USG%, the largest regular season to post season increase in Lebron’s career. Lebron’s time of possession has also dramatically increased, from 6.1 minutes per game in the regular season to 8.1 minutes per game in the playoffs.  The Cavs have been hit with injuries to two of the team’s high USG% players in Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving and the team has been forced to adjust to a more ball dominant Lebron.  In short, the Cavs are relying on Lebron much more in the playoffs than they got used to during the regular season.

Atlanta Hawks

Kyle Korver has been one of the best shooters in the league this season but he is in something of a slump through the first two rounds of the playoffs.  One of the reasons for his statistical slump is that he isn’t getting nearly as many open looks.  The frequency of his open FGA[2. NBA.com defines an open attempt as any FGA without a defender within 6 feet.] have fallen dramatically in the post season, as have the percentage of his FGA coming off of screens and his catch and shoot attempts.  Meanwhile, the percentage of Korver’s attempts with a defender between 2-4 feet have increased dramatically.

Even when Korver does get free he is still making open shots at a percentage that is well below his norm.  It’s possible that the tightened playoff defense has disrupted his rhythm.  However, Korver is a player that can get hot at any moment and the Cavs will need to do everything in their power to keep the pressure on Korver.  The Hawks have managed to make it through two rounds despite his shooting struggles and the team as a whole is shooting fairly comparable to their regular season percentages.  Nonetheless, they’ll need Korver’s shooting in order to beat the Cavs and if he gets hot he’ll make the Hawks nearly impossible to guard.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors led the league in pace throughout the regular season and were far and away the leaders in average length of offensive possession.  However, their two playoff series have come against two of the league’s slowest paced teams and as a result, the Warriors are currently 14th in pace among playoff teams. Their slow pace is a bit misleading.  According to Michael Beuoy’s offensive pace metric, which measures the average time a team spends on offense per possession, the Warriors are actually maintaining their fast paced offense fairly well.  At 14.1 seconds per possession and 1.07 points per possession, they are scoring remarkably fast and efficient despite going up against two notoriously slow teams.

Length of Possession stats via Michael Beuoy on stats.inpredictable.com

Playing fast was one of the key pieces of the Warriors identity and it’s actually pretty remarkable that they are outscoring opponents by 8 ppg despite playing at such a slow pace.   Their next round matchup comes against the Rockets, one of the fastest paced teams in the regular season which may play to the Warriors’ strength.  The Rockets must be careful with the pace of the game and make sure to get back on defense as the Warriors are scoring an impressive 1.17 PPP after a defensive rebound.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are known around the league as the analytics driven, 3-point chuckers of the NBA and throughout the regular season, the Rockets attempted 3-pointers at a historic rate.  Their .392 3-point attempt rate was by far the league’s highest. So high, that the distance between the Rockets and the 2nd placed Cavaliers is roughly the same distance between the Cavs and league average. However, in the playoffs the Rockets’ 3-point attempt rate has fallen to .337, only the 3rd highest among playoff teams.

A large part of this is likely due to the Hack-A strategy that causes a disproportionately large percentage of possessions to end in free throw attempts. The Rockets have scored 4.5% more of their points from the charity stripe in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.  They have also increased their points in the paint by 1.7%.  The increase in scoring from the free throw line and in the paint have helped the Rockets maintain their 105 ORtg.  Warriors coach Steve Kerr has hinted that he will avoid the Hack-A strategy since his team prefers to play up and down so I would expect the Rockets to get back to launching a uniquely high number of 3-pointers.