Playoff Previews: Eastern Conference Finals

Mar 6, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Iman Shumpert (4) runs into Atlanta Hawks guard Kyle Korver (26) during the first half at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

With Kevin Love sidelined and Kyrie Irving nursing an injury, LeBron James is missing the help he specifically sought after and Cleveland has become a one-man team. James has had a Westbrook-esque statline with a 35% usage rate and a 40% assist rate, paired with poor shooting percentages and defensive rebounding numbers you could see from a center. Nonetheless, a few different metrics still see him as a superstar, like the multi-season RPM they use at FiveThirtyEight, and Cleveland leads the NBA in playoff offensive efficiency. Basketball-reference’s BPM sees him as a superstar too in the playoffs–that’s missing some key information, but I believe his defense has improved in the post-season.

From what I’ve observed, this Cleveland team is not heavily favored or seen as a particularly good team in its current form. This runs counter to the numbers, and it’s tough to make sense of it all. I ran adjusted net team ratings for the entire season, playoffs included, with a few key players as additional variables. For example, the Warriors had their own dummy variable for the team as well as another for when Bogut is in the lineup. Cleveland had one for LeBron, and I threw in one for Kevin Love as well since there’s been at least one series without him. But Love’s presence was slightly valuable, and LeBron’s was off the charts: a little over 8 points per 100 possessions. What happened?

The Cavaliers beat the Bulls by 5.5 points per game with an even number of games at home for each team. The Bulls did not play well by any reasonable standard, but that’s who they were in the regular season too when they won 50 games with a margin of victory of 3 points per game. (Though for what it’s worth, Cleveland was leading by nine points when Love got injured in the last Boston game and they ultimately won by eight points.) Blind analysis would lead one to believe this is still an excellent team and a legitimate title contender, but that seems wrong. He doesn’t look like the same force of nature who pushed the Heat to the finals every year and he’s certainly not as athletic as he was in his first stint with Cleveland. Losing Love definitely hurts too, no matter what the initial numbers say, and you can see my attempts at quantifying his loss in the Chicago-Cleveland series preview.

Basically, they should still be a good team, along the lines of a weak contender with a win total in the low to mid 50’s–which is, poetically, what they had in the regular season. They made all those in-season improvements and LeBron searched for the Fountain of Youth in Florida for a couple weeks, but they’re right back where they were earlier in the season as a merely decent ball-club where LeBron takes on too many responsibilities and doesn’t shoot well.

Specifically, LeBron’s turned to isolation basketball–in the regular season 25.8% of his possessions were isolations, via Synergy, and it’s up to 32.1% in the playoffs. One would hope for a more egalitarian approach, and something more aesthetically pleasing, but the team believes they need to be carried for a little while longer. However, looking at 50 playoff possessions without LeBron since Love’s injury, and without garbage-time players (Perkins, Marion, Miller, and Harris), the Cavaliers have scored at a 120 points per 100 possession rate while allowing only 84 points. His teammates are capable shooters, and LeBron shouldn’t settle for tough midrange jump shots.

One reason LeBron should limit the isolation possessions is that it’s a more predictable offense to guard. Atlanta has only one good defender for LeBron in DeMarre Carroll, but they’ll be ecstatic if he pounds the ball into the ground for a few seconds and takes a contested shot. Millsap will also probably guard him for a bit, and expect Korver to guard him surprisingly well for a few possessions too. Atlanta has no one off the bench who can check him well. This is where Sefolosha would come in handy, of course–without him, Atlanta’s bench looks pretty meek, as Bazemore and Mike Scott are offering sub-replacement level production.

The story of this Hawks team might seem like one of the limitations of applied statistics and the progressive three-point heavy approach, but advanced stats are actually down on the team. They have most of the classic markers of an overrated team: more wins than expected wins via their point differential, a win streak that draws the attention of the media, a weak schedule, and the loss of an underrated defensive role player. I estimated their strength based on a couple different methods before the playoffs with their projected playoff rotation, and they didn’t look like a one seed or a 60 win team. It’s tough to say how correct that prediction was because while they beat the Nets by 5.5 points per game, the Nets were actually pretty awful for most of the season and then found a groove with Lopez healthy. Then the Hawks beat a weird Wizards club that changed shapes in the playoffs by 2.8 points per game. That’s probably a pretty decent club–just not one worth 60 wins.

One reason Atlanta improved this season, however, is Schroder’s growth. The coaching staff trusts him enough that he plays extended high-leverage minutes in fourth quarters, and that was unthinkable a season ago when he was arguably the worst player in the league. Looking at everyone with a BPM under -4 in 2014 and with at least 500 minutes in both 2014 and 2015, Schroder has the largest year-to-year improvement in BPM. When a team is a lot better than expected for the season, it’s due to changes not only at the top of the rotation but the bottom as well. Note Speights’ inclusion for Golden State.

Fortunately, Atlanta has some untapped potential in the playoffs. As many have noted, they are not shooting as well as they have in the recent past–Korver, for one, is shooting 35% from behind the arc. There are already a few articles on their shooting woes, like this one from Seth Partnow, detailing how it’s not a problem of shot selection and that they have done a poor job at creating their own offense.

Cleveland’s a team they match-up well against too. They don’t have a defender for both Korver and one of Teague or Schroder–Irving would definitely not do well chasing Korver around screens, and their point guards could burn him. Going small would alleviate some problems for Cleveland, but then LeBron has to check Millsap. Then there’s the five-out floor-spacing problem, drawing out the huge but semi-lumbering Mozgov to the perimeter to guard Al Horford, Pero Antic, or Mike Muscala. Millsap is probably the key for Atlanta. Mozgov’s defense inside has been important for Cleveland, as they don’t have enough defensive talent elsewhere. Opponents have been shooting a ridiculously low 34% near the rim when he’s nearby, although some of that is due to Noah’s finishing problems, and consequently he’s been the second best rim protector in the playoffs. Cleveland can hide a weak defender, or the exhausted LeBron, on someone like Mike Scott and play small enough so they have Delly or Shumpert out there as an extra man to cover a point guard for Irving.

Bringing it all together, I don’t think that even with homecourt advantage the Hawks should be favored in the series, but it could be a fairly close one. This is no surprise if you look at the gambling lines, but even using outsider methods like with SportVU stats the Hawks aren’t the favorites either. Here’s one recent article from NylonCalculus that sees Cleveland as the most likely winner as well. Though even with pages and pages of analysis, the series will probably be decided by who’s making their open and semi-contested jump shots – LeBron will be tough to beat when his shots are actually going in, and the Hawks can conjure their winter magic if Korver gets hot. Predicting who makes an open shot is nearly impossible in a short time-frame, but there’s a good chance LeBron will be visiting the finals for five years in a row.
Cleveland odds on winning: 72% (most common result: six games)