Shot Creation and These Playoffs

May 15, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague (0) shoots over Washington Wizards forward Nene Hilario (42) during the first half in game six of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Since I’m on something of a roll with estimating players’ effectiveness creating their own shots (as well as just three pointers), thought I’d drop a little bit of quick follow up analysis.

It seems the Hawks offensive decline in the postseason is due in no small part to their decline in efficiency on these self-created shots. Getting slightly beyond pure numbers, it seems like Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder haven’t been able to score quite frequently enough to draw extra help defenders, which means both their own scoring has suffered and the rest of the Hawks aren’t getting the ball in quite as favorable situations as during the Peak Hawks Death Machine days of January and February.

Why this is occurring is something of the rub. After all, if it’s a matter of the Hawks guards not being able to get the same degree of separation or penetration against the higher level of competition and greater amount of defensive preparation inherent in the playoffs, that’s one thing. In that case, it might call for a schematic adjustment or might simply indicate these players aren’t quite good enough when measured solely against elite competition. Or, they could just be missing shots.

First, a warning, when slicing the data this finely over a relatively small number of games, we’re dealing with really small samples, so any conclusions are going to be far more theory than proven fact. That caveat in place, the two point guards appear to be having opposite problems. Interestingly, both players are taking a similar[1. In fact slightly more efficient.] mix of shots on their “created” attempts than they were during the regular season, as measured by XeFG%. Fewer mid range jumpers and at least in Schroder’s case, more close shots. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, as the increased reliance on the three probably means slightly less drive-and-dish play off of the dribble. Still, it’s not like both players have suddenly become hungry for 18-foot dribble pull ups.

In Teague’s case, he’s simply been far less able to finish at the basket. During the season, he shot 58.6% at the rim on shots he created[2. As estimated by touch time > 2.5 seconds per SportVU.] for himself, while in the post season, he has fallen all the way to 38.6%. This tracks with other SportVU data, which have recorded Teague’s field goal percentage on drives to be 38% during the playoffs after finishing at a fairly robust 46% during the season.[3. NBA average was just under 45% FG% on drives during the regular season.] Whether this is inability to create separation, better scouting, better rim defenders, lingering health issues or simply poor play isn’t really addressed by the data[4. Though Teague is getting fewer absolutely wide open layups with no defenders within 6 feet of him in the postseason.], and it is most likely some combination of all those factors.

In Schroder’s case, opponents have simply dared the second-year German to beat them from the outside, going under screens and begging for threes. Schroder has simply missed many many shots – he’s 2-14 (18.2%) on self-created threes in the playoffs, after shooting 41.9% during the season albeit on a limited number of attempts.[5. 43 such 3PA for the year.] Thus far, the Nets and Wizards have gambled that shooting wouldn’t hold up, and it hasn’t. The result being Schroder has either bricked away from three, or been forced to drive into a sagging defense, causing turnovers and even more missed shots. Further, the soft defensive coverage has probably slowed the Hawks’ offense down, as the only quick decision available to Schroder is a shot, the pull up three, which he doesn’t seem to feel that great about right now.[6. Or, as mentioned above, the entirety of the previous two paragraphs could be total BS.]

Looking into another playoff narratives, LeBron James does appear to be going on his own a fair bit more. Always a guy who created a lot for himself, he’s up to 76.1% of his shots self-created in the playoffs from 71% during the regular season. Some of this is surely the injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but some of it is also matchup based, as James has gone to bullyball post ups seemingly far more frequently in the postseason than over the first 82 games. According to Synergy data, 14.2% of LeBron’s playoff possessions used have been from the post, whereas only 8.6% of his plays were from the block during the season. The effectiveness of this change in usage can be seen as his created shots have moved closer to the basket[8. 13.4 feet average shot distance in the playoffs, down from 14 feet during the season on “created” shots.], with a larger percentage coming from both close to the rim and midrange at the expense of three pointers. Which is all to the good as James’ ability to create his own threes has completely dried up during the playoffs, as he’s 3-30 on a type of shot he shot at a decent enough 33% 3FG% during the season. Moreover, these have been on aggregate slightly more open looks than he got during the season. Perhaps this is an effect of fatigue from the increased workload, or maybe (again) he’s just missing more shots than one would expect.

In any event, the following chart captures the created for/by splits for the rotations of the four conference finalists. Note James Jones does not appear on the list because he has created precisely zero of his own looks in the playoffs, while Mike Muscala 8 regular season attempts [7. And one created playoff shot!] didn’t seem like a useful comparison to make. To compare apples-to-apples, last night’s opening game of the Western Conference finals is not included, so even without James Harden’s explosive Game One performance factored in, he’s done just fine in terms of getting his own during the postseason.