LeBron James’ Shot Selection and the impact of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love on the King

LeBron James is doing crazy things.

He has gotten his Cleveland Cavaliers a 2-1 series lead over the Golden State Warriors, sporting an enormous usage rate of 43.3%. if he’s not shooting, he’s passing—an estimated 53.1% of his teammates’ FGs have been assisted by Lebron when he’s on the floor. Basically, he’s doing everything for the Cavs. And unfortunately, because of the injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, LeBron’s shot selection has taken a huge hit.

In an earlier article, I introduced Shot Difficulty[1. A quick update: I’ve made some changes to the model. Because shots at the basket (shot distance <5 feet) and jump shots (shot distance >= 5 feet) are fundamentally different, I’ve created two different models: one for longer shots and one for shots near the basket.] which mimics FG% and can be used to determine the difficulty of a shot[2. Hence the name.]. We can use Shot Difficulty to create a Shot Selection metric called Advanced XPPS+[5. Which will mimic Points per Shot.] (or aXPPS+ for short) where we multiply the Shot Difficulty by the point type of the shot.[4. This will give credit to the 3-point shot being worth 1 extra point.]. Here is the breakdown of LeBron’s aXPPS+[6. As a reminder, Shot Difficulty and aXPPS+ account for the time in the game, the # of dribbles, the defender distance, the shot distance, shot clock, home/road and the height difference of the shooter and defender. For shots near the basket, touch time is also a part of the model.] during the regular season, the first three rounds of the playoffs and then the NBA Finals:

As we can see, LeBron’s shot selection has gradually degraded as his shots have gotten harder[7. Again lower Shot Difficulty actually indicates more difficult shots so maybe it’s appropriate to say his Shot Difficulty has gone up.]. In fact, his 0.861 aXPPS+ would’ve been the 8th worst rate in the league[8. minimum 100 FGAs.], barely behind Nick Young and Jamal Crawford. Why is this the case? Is he taking more contested shots in the playoffs?

In the playoffs, he has been taking more contested shots[9. Contested is being defined here as either Very Tight defense or Tight defense per SportVU definitions found here.] but his contested FGA% in the Finals isn’t that much higher than his playoff numbers. However, he has been taking significantly more Very Tightly contested shots in the playoffs and that rate has remained the same in the Finals. But of course, this doesn’t really explain his lower aXPPS+ in the Finals compared to the rest of the playoffs. So what’s the difference?

LeBron has been taking a slightly smaller percentage of his shots at the rim in the Finals[10. I’m sure readers are wondering about the lower Rim FGA% compared to what you may see on basketball-reference or NBA.com. Well, it’s not a typo or a miscalculation. Rather, it has to do with the differences in the play-by-play data and the SportVU data. We’ll have a much longer piece on this in the offseason. It’s simply too important to go over in a footnote.] but where we see the real difference is in the number of Very Tightly Contested Rim attempts. Of the eleven attempts he’s taken at the rim, seven were with a defender within 2 feet of him. This is perhaps the biggest difference in his shot selection, he’s simply getting more attention at the rim then he was in the previous series or in the regular season. And it’s not in the least bit surprising considering Golden State is the best defense the Cavs have faced so far.

Of course, with no Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love, LeBron is going to see much more defensive attention, especially at the rim where he’s so dangerous. As Tom Haberstroh has mentioned before, Kevin Love has had a big impact on LeBron’s shooting and shot selection. But so has Kyrie and we can see this with On-Off aXPPS+ during the regular season[11. For every player’s regular season On-Off aXPPS+ and Avg Shot Difficulty, click here.]:

With both players on the floor, LeBron’s aXPPS+ is 1.000, which would be in about the 50%tile during the regular season. But when either one of them leaves the floor, that drops down almost 10 points per 100 shots[12. Because aXPPS+ mimics Points per Shot, we can say he loses about 10 points per 100 shots worth of shot selection.]. Perhaps, what is interesting is that when neither are on the floor, his aXPPS+ isn’t much different from when one of Love or Kyrie is on the floor. So this indicates that he needs both on the floor more then anything. When even one of Kyrie or Love is out, it affects LeBron’s shot selection a ton. Also, of the two stars, LeBron does seem to need Kyrie on the floor a bit more than he needs Love.

However, I’m sure some have noticed that LeBron’s regular season aXPPS+ with both stars out is still better than what he’s been posting in the Finals. But consider, in the regular season, he isn’t facing the dominant Golden State defense every night.

So is there any path to improvement in LeBron’s shot selection? Not really. Without Love and Irving, he’s seeing more defensive attention and that isn’t going to change. But despite his “poor” shot selection, keep in mind that it’s necessary for LeBron and the Cavs. As Seth has mentioned before, makers of “bad shots” break defenses and the Cavs will need LeBron to make more bad shots to beat the Warriors defense.