Nicolas Batum is not Damaged Goods

In one of a series of pre-draft transactions, the Charlotte Hornets added Nicolas Batum from the Portland Trail Blazers to bolster an offensively thin wing rotation. The fact that the Trail Blazers were willing to trade him probably has more to do with their intent to re-sign Wesley Matthews and snag another big name to replace LaMarcus Aldridge (who informed the team he’s unlikely to re-sign) then it does with disappointment in Batum. Still, the ease with which this once foundational player was pried away has left the impression that he is somehow damaged goods.

Perception of Batum tumbled last season as he struggled through the worst shooting campaign of his career. He finished the season at 40.0 percent from the field and 32.4 percent on three-pointers, both more than two percentage points below his previous career-lows. However, the enormous shooting slump that created these numbers was mostly confined to the first half of the season.

The difference in his shot selection, as measured by Seth Partnow’s XeFG%, was negligible before and after the All-Star break. That means in terms of shot location, defender distance and the split between off-the-dribble and catch-and-shoot attempts, his distribution was fairly consistent. However, after the All-Star break he shot about 12 percentage points higher with those comparable shots. The difference was almost entirely because of his three-point shooting, especially wide-open ones. Before the All-Star break he made 31.37 of his wide-open three-pointers, after the break that number was up to 45.28. You can see the difference in his shot charts (courtesy of Austin Clemens) as well. Here’s the first part of the season.

Here is his shot chart after the break.

Throughout the season, Batum continued to be an above-average finisher around the rim, with warm pockets of mid-range shooting. The big difference was that he started hitting his above-the-break three-pointers at a much higher rate. During that early portion of the season Batum attempted a total of 203 three-pointers, less than half the 750 three-point attempts that Darryl Blackport found it usually takes for three-point shooting to stabilize. Although he struggled some in the playoffs, his shooting in the second half of the season bounced back which implies that the slump may have been more of blip traced to health or the building psychological pressure of a slump, exacerbated by random noise.

Moving beyond shooting, Batum’s value has never really progressed past his basic versatility. There was a point, a few seasons ago, where his frame, defensive acumen, and shooting and passing abilities implied that he might breakout and become the kind of versatile star that Kawhi Leonard has. That hasn’t really come to pass, but Batum’s versatility is nothing to sneeze at. Last season, he was one of just nine players with a TRB% better than 9.0 percent, an AST% better than 20.0 percent and STL% and BLK% better than 1.0 percent. The other eight–LeBron James, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Joakim Noah, David West, Kevin Durant, Josh Smith and Michael Carter-Williams–make for an impressive list to be included on. Even with his shooting struggles, Batum still ranked 15th in Box Plus-Minus among forwards with at least 1,000 minutes played.

Oh, and he’s still just 26.

For years, the Hornets have been looking for someone who can help their defense without sacrificing their offense. In buying low on Batum, they may have finally found their man.