2015 Trade Deadline: Will Cole Hamels Struggle In Texas?

The Philadelphia Phillies finally rebuilt their farm system. All they had to do was trade their ace, Cole Hamels. Hamels was sent to the Rangers on Wednesday night without Texas having to include their top prospect, Joey Gallo. The trade looks like this:

This is the largest deadline deal of the year so far, and one that has major fantasy implications. Hamels is not a rental. The Rangers will have him through the 2018 season. That will give them a rotation of Hamels, Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Martin Perez. That is a solid rotation.

Hamels was 6-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 137 strikeouts in 128.2 innings pitched with the Phillies this year, including a no-hitter in his last start for the team that drafted him 17th overall in 2002. He was 114-90 with a 3.30 ERA and 1844 strikeouts in his nine plus seasons with the Phillies.

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The question that all of us fantasy players want to know is will Hamels continue to have success in Texas? There is some cause for concern here. First of all, his ERA at Citizens Bank Park was 3.00. His road ERA this year is 4.14. He also owns a 8.10 ERA against the American League this year in two starts (Yankees and Red Sox). In his one career start at Rangers Ballpark, Hamels gave up four runs in six innings. These are small sample sizes, but it is reasonable to expect his ERA to go up.

That said, he should also experience an uptick in wins pitching for the Rangers. Whatever you sacrifice in ERA, you should pick up in wins. Only you know what your team needs, so if you’re good in wins and want to save your ERA, try and trade Hamels for good value.

Jake Diekman is 2-1 with a 5.15 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 36.2 innings pitched. Diekman can pile up some strikeouts for you, but he only has six holds, and the high ERA will likely keep most fantasy owners away. I wouldn’t trust him in roto leagues, but if you are desperate to catch up in strikeouts, you can roll the dice in head to head leagues.

Matt Harrison was sent to Philadelphia mainly for economic relief. Harrison has only made three starts this year while recovering from spinal fusion surgery. He has a 6.75 ERA in those starts with only five strikeouts in 16 innings. He may fill a temporary hole in the Philadelphia rotation, but won’t fit into their long term plans. Nor should he fit into yours.

The main haul for the Phillies is Jake Thompson. Thompson was acquired in the Joakim Soria trade last year, and was regarded as the number four prospect in the Rangers organization, and in the top 50 overall. Thompson was 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA at AA Frisco this year. He has struggled with his control, but is still only 21 years old. He won’t be on fantasy radars for at least another year or more.

Nick Williams was the number five prospect in the Rangers system. Williams was hitting .300 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, and 10 steals in 96 games for AA Frisco. He could help the Phillies out as soon as next year if he keeps hitting like he is. He will begin for Philadelphia at AA Reading, but could be promoted with a good showing there.

Jorge Alfaro was the number six prospect in the Rangers organization, and was hitting .253 with five homers and 21 RBI in 49 games for AA Frisco. Alfaro’s ascension was derailed by a severe leg injury during last season, but the Phillies seem satisfied that he is fully recovered Alfaro may have the highest upside, but also carries the most risk. He also wont help anyone out in fantasy until at least 2017.

Jerad Eickhoff was the number 17 prospect for Texas, but could be the first one to make the jump to the majors for the Phillies. Eickhoff was 8-4 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 starts for AAA Round Rock with 90 strikeouts in 96.2 innings pitched. We all know that a 4.47 ERA in the Pacific Coast League is about a 3.47 ERA in the majors. There is a strong chance that he will be in Philadelphia before the end of the season. He may be of use to some deep league owners.

Alec Asher was 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts for AAA Round Rock. He is regarded as a back of the rotation starter, and could see some time in Philadelphia come September. He likely will not be relevant in fantasy leagues this year though.

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This is a significant haul for the Phillies, but we likely won’t know how good or bad this deal was for them for at least three years. All it did for fantasy owners was shift the value of Cole Hamels some. Harrison will likely get a longer leash in Philly, and the move to the National League could help him. Those of you in deeper leagues should keep an eye on this. Harrison was an 18 game winner in 2012. If he can regain some of that form, he could be a huge boost for your fantasy team down the stretch.

This deal has not been announced by the league yet, so something could still derail this. Just look at the Carlos Gomez deal to the Mets that was a “done deal” that has now apparently gone belly-up because of concerns about Zack Wheeler‘s arm.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for the fantasy impact of all of the deadline deals!

Next: Will Troy Tulowitzki's Numbers Rise?

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