Fantasy Football: Which Houston Texans Running Back(s) Should You Draft?

The Houston Texans running back situation became the first substantive news story of training camp on Wednesday when star RB Arian Foster went down with a groin injury. Reports became extremely dire, and it appeared that Foster would be out for at least the first 9 weeks of the season (IR/designated to return for 8 weeks, then bye in week 9). But according to Jason La Canfora, Arian Foster could be back in less than three months.

With draft season swiftly approaching, everyone is wondering what they should do with each Houston Texans running back. While we may not know for many more weeks the exact extent of Arian Foster’s injury, and who will start in his place, below are my feelings on each of the running backs as it stands today.

Arian Foster

Obviously Arian Foster is the key to not only the rest of the running backs, but to the entire Houston Texans offense. It’s no secret that the Texans quarterback situation is terrible. Now you can combine a less-than-stellar running game with the less-than-stellar passing game.

Foster’s ADP has already plummeted down to RB45. And even though I wouldn’t have spent a first or second round pick on him, I think that for where he’s going now, the gamble could easily pay off. Even if Foster doesn’t play until after the bye week, that is six weeks of Arian Foster. For the past few years he has been one of the league’s most consistent running backs by far. He almost always rewards fantasy owners when he is on the field.

There’s no guarantee that he will ever be healthy this year, but I would stash someone who could be a top-5 RB during the playoffs. He’s just that good.

Alfred Blue

Dec 21, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Alfred Blue (28) rushes during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Alfred Blue is the Houston Texans running back with the easiest road to serious production. Blue was the lead back when Foster was out in 2013. However, other than some very memorable highlights, he didn’t prove that he could be a stud with a large workload. If he has to go up against a stacked box, I wouldn’t project his YPC anywhere near 4.0.

The greatest value for Alfred Blue is if you drafted Le’Veon Bell, missed out on Deangelo Williams, and just want to have a running back that you know will get playing time in the first couple of weeks. But even he won’t come for free. Blue’s ADP is at RB42 right now, higher than many other players I’d be willing to gamble on in the early weeks as Bell sits out like Danny Woodhead, David Johnson, David Cobb, and Jay Ajayi. The rookies don’t have guaranteed playing time yet, but they are at least in better offenses than a Texans team that’s missing their workhorse.

Chris Polk

I actually wrote extensively about Chris Polk when he joined the Texans because I figured he would be relevant eventually. Clearly I didn’t expect him to be relevant in August. However, my point still stands from that article: I think that Chris Polk is a better running back than Alfred Blue. And I expect that that will come to fruition during the first few weeks of the regular season, if not during the preseason. I’d prefer not before my drafts so I can get him for cheap.

Polk won’t be a fantasy stud simply because of the terrible offense he’ll be a part of. But right now you can get Polk for peanuts (his current ADP is higher than RB80), with your last draft choice or one of your last depending on what type of league you’re in. I say stash him on your bench and hope things turn out well.

Jonathan Grimes

If you are a believer in Jonathan Grimes, and there are believers, then you can get him for dirt cheap like Polk. While he’s not my choice for a bench stash, the Texans backfield isn’t locked down by any means and depth chart changes could come any day during the preseason and early weeks of the regular season. Even if you have no interest in stashing him, he’s definitely a player worth keeping an eye on.

A Player to Be Named Later

There’s always a possibility that the starting Houston Texans running back isn’t on the roster yet. Pierre Thomas was considered but passed on, which shows the Texans have interest at looking outside the organization,but are not desperate. Will Ray Rice get a work out? Can some other free agent surprise everyone? I doubt it, but it would be surprising if the Texans didn’t bring someone else in, depending on how long Foster will be out.

Conclusion

It’s no secret that the Texans quarterback situation is terrible. Now you can combine a less-than-stellar running game with the less-than-stellar passing game. I wouldn’t be drafting Alfred Blue nor Arian Foster unless they slipped to a spot in the draft where I felt like the risk was minimal. But if you do really want the Houston Texans running back, let other drafters reach for Alfred Blue and wait to grab Chris Polk. He will end up getting the lead role before Foster comes back.

Next: Is Andre Ellington Being Overvalued?

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