Joe Kelly: Can We Trust His Recent Success?

By Brad Kelly | Aug 29, 2015

One of the funnier and interesting sound bites going into 2015, was Joe Kelly coming out and openly declaring that he was going to win the CY Young award. While Kelly said it in a mostly joking manner, every pitcher goes into the season with these hopes. The Red Sox put a lot of faith in him to help turn around the rotation, and owners knew that he had the stuff to excel in the bigs, so he often found himself drafted later in drafts.

Unfortunately, we all tend to put our feet in our mouths at some point, and Kelly did just that as he went out and got absolutely shelled for most of this season.

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Kelly was so inconsistent that the Red Sox had to ultimately send him down so he could possibly work out what the deficiencies in his stuff and delivery were. A minor league demotion is a far cry from a CY Young winner, so most owner’s saw the writing on the wall early in the season, and cut ties with him.

I do not question the raw stuff that Kelly has at his disposal. He has a blazing fastball and decent enough off speed offerings, that should allow him to be at least a back end of the rotation arm in the future.

Kelly was demoted in mid-June and did not resurface until Jull 22^nd, but it was clear that Kelly had made some noticeable changes. It was clear that Boston wanted him to make distinct effort to feature more off speed offerings, which would allow him to keep batter’s off balance.

As well know, even pitchers with big fastballs, can get hit when the fastball is predictable and easy to distinguish. Throughout all of his August starts, it has been clear that Kelly has made it a point to feature his changeup more against lefties and his slider more against righties,a welcome change in approach.

While I am not completely sold on his turnaround, I do acknowledge that he has recognized what he needs to do better at the majors in order to succeed. The changeup usage uptick is great against lefties as Kelly has more of a down and away movement on the pitch, thus avoiding hard contact.

He still uses his fastball mostly against righties to set-up counts and to get ahead, but in August he has also started using his slider later and later in counts, which for me, denotes that he has better command of it and more confident in it.

Kelly’s success in August is hard to ignore as he went 6-0 for the month and only gave up more than 2 ER on one occasion. He has a 2.68 ERA for the month and limited a hot Mets’ lineup over 7 innings during his start today.

To go along with the 2.68 ERA for the month, he has also averaged 4.6 SO/9, managed 1.8 BB/9 and has given up 5.8 H/9. All these numbers point to a SP4 or 5, and owners have to take note that he is on quite the surge here lately.

As the calendar turns, and we head into September, I would advise owners to gamble on Kelly since he still has some decent value going forward. I would still have an extremely short leash as Kelly has the track record for blowing up your ERA category for the week in one outing.

But, he does get the weak hitting Phillies next, so there still seems to be value with picking him up. Also, it you decide to make the move make sure you do not start him against the Jays which would be his next start after the Phillies. Avoid that match up at all costs.

Hopefully, the schedule lines up where he could get the Rays in Tampa instead, but make sure you stay up to date on the probable starters when the time comes. He has all the ability to become a quality contributor down the stretch, but it all comes down to the risk you are willing to take by inserting him into your lineup. If you need a SP flier, he is your man, just stay alert and pay close attention to him to make sure that he does not revert to his old ways.

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