Hardwood Paroxysm presents: NBA players and coaches who won’t last

It’s been a long offseason, but training camps are almost here. The NBA regular season is just a hop, skip and a jump from there. Every team is undefeated at this point, swollen with optimism, establishing their rotations and making infallible plans for the future. Buried in that bright and shining hypothetical, however, are several souls whose futures are less secure. Every regular season features a slew of trades and, often, several coaching changes. This week, the staff of Hardwood Paroxysm examines some of the players and coaches who may not make it through an entire regular season with their current team.

Byron Scott is doomed to find death via Kobe, Swaggy and Louuuuuuu

by Chris Manning (@cwmwrites) — Hardwood Paroxysm

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to be bad this year, but they are going to be interesting in a chaotic sort of way. In some way, this will doom Byron Scott.

Kobe Bryant, of course, is the main reason this is true. Even in his presumed last year on a team with some interesting young talent, he’s going to play like the Alpha he once was. But that’s at least somewhat within Scott’s comfort zone. What isn’t — or rather who isn’t — are Nick Young and Lou Williams.

For one, let’s remember that Scott hates fun and doesn’t like his teams to take three-pointers. He wants his time to embrace the mid-range and generally take shots closer to the basket.

“I don’t believe it wins championships,” Scott said last October. “It gets you to the playoffs.” This quote, of course, is odd because Scott took almost seven threes per game and the modern game has proven that the ‘jump shooting teams don’t win championships’ credo is crap, in a not-so-shocking twist, many of the league’s best teams last season were the same teams who took the most threes per game.

In Young and Williams, Smith will be coaching two players who, by nature, are gunners. Young is a walking game of HORSE and a the king of botched 360-degree layups. Williams’ whole game — or at least the best part — is creating an opening and then shooting before it closes.

Last season, Young took 5.4 3-pointers per game before getting hurt and shot 11.3 times per game overall. He doesn’t do much else other than shoot. As for Williams — one of the NBA’s best sixth men — he took a career-high 5.6 3-point attempts per game last season and shot 11.6 times per game. This year, there seems to be a chance these two play together a lot this year and remember: Kobe is going to shoot a lot too. What will be fun to watch will be a nightmare for Scott to coach.

Aside from their gunning mentalities, Young and Williams just don’t seem like the type of players Scott will enjoy coaching. They are fun and play chaotically with little regard for order and functionality and at least with Williams, there is some functionality to that style of play.

Scott is rigid and strict — the opposite of what makes Young and Williams interesting. They might not get him fired — the Lakers, though, may be bad to make that happen anyway — but Young and Williams are going to make this season a long one for Scott.

Dwane Casey and the Gloomy Forecast from the 6

by KavehsRoom (@KavehsRoom) — Hardwood Paroxysm

Toronto, also known in these circles as ‘the 6’, is a well-established and respected hockey town despite the Maple Leafs Stanley Cup drought of 48 seasons and counting. But the Toronto Raptors have brought basketball relevance to one of the most sports-crazed cities in the world.

The Raptors used to be perennial expansion doormats save for a few seasons during the Vinsanity era. But under Head Coach Dwane Casey the team finished atop the Atlantic Division for back-to-back years for the first time in the franchise’s history, including a 49-win 2014-15 campaign — also a franchise record. But the Raptors are quickly developing a reputation as just another regular season team, stemming primarily from first round flameouts the past two years, including an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards last season. They haven’t sniffed the Semi-finals since that infamous 2001 series against the Philadelphia 76ers.

As the league has shifted heavily towards small ball and pick-and-roll sets are becoming as prevalent as ever, Toronto has embraced the trend by utilizing their own version with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. When you factor in Sixth Man of the Year winner and perennial chucker Lou Williams, the ‘15 version of the Raptors could put up points in a hurry. But they also became a shell of themselves as their defense was routinely exposed in the second half of the season (they posted the league’s seventh worst defensive rating).

It was such a grim ending to the season that management suggested Casey reconsider his coaching staff arrangements, according to the Toronto Sun. It’s hard to see Casey being cut loose when you consider the Raptors recent run of regular season success. But at a certain point you need to take the next step as a franchise and in the rough business of NBA head coaching circles, the accountability sometimes unfairly lands on the head coach. It’s worth noting that Casey was hired by the Raptors previous regime. General Manager Masai Ujiri and the team’s current leadership have shown no qualms about spending and adding pieces to the existing team. Still, Casey will undoubtedly be under close evaluation until they become playoff competitive in the wafer-thin Eastern Conference.

Ujiri will show patience as the Raptors re-patch some team identity on the fly. But he also lived up to his reputation of taking matters into his own hands and moving quickly to plug roster holes. While the free agent market was temporarily at a standstill until the LaMarcus Aldridge domino fell, Ujiri pounced on versatile defensive ace DeMarre Carroll. He also brought in Bismack Biyombo, Cory Joseph, and drafted Norman Powell from UCLA and Delon Wright from Utah. Both Powell and Wright were known defensive commodities at the guard position in college. Factor in the long-term commitment to big man Jonas Valanciunas to a team-friendly deal and all of these moves essentially signal the Raptors new commitment and priority to defense.

Casey signed a three-year deal in May of 2014 but only next season remaining on the contract is guaranteed. His chances of remaining after that or even making it to the end of the season appear slim if the Raptors continue to be flattened on defense and most importantly run-over during the playoffs. Ujiri’s additions have unequivocally addressed the team’s 2015 shortcomings so it’s likely the team will show marked improvement, especially on the defensive end. Whether the Raptors experience ultimate success won’t be known until the playoffs. But Casey’s fate could be determined prior to that if they get off to a slow start, fall too far behind the Cleveland Cavaliers or their own pace from last season.

Who will be the surprise coaching fire?

by Austin Peters (@apete1993) — Hardwood Paroxysm

It seems like every season there is a surprise coaching fire out of nowhere. A few coaches were highlights this season. Despite presumably being told to make the playoffs or get fired, Monty Williams led the Pelicans to their first playoff berth in several years but was give the axe anyway. Scott Brooks led the Thunder to the NBA Finals and a few other conference finals and still got canned after the season was over. Throw in Mike Malone getting Kings’d by the Kings just a few weeks into the season and it was an eventful coaching carousel.

There are teams each year that come out of nowhere and fire their coaches. It seems inevitable. My idea here was to try and find a few “out of the box” firings; coaches who don’t seem on the hot seat now but if things broke wrong, could see the exit door.

One of those candidates will likely come from the Western Conference, with there being so many teams at the top seeming to be title contenders this season. Popovich is untouchable, and the same can be assumed for Steve Kerr who just coached a team to a championship. With all that Doc has been through with the Clippers organization, it would be surprising to see him get fired and Billy Donovan will only have had one year under his belt. That leaves the Rockets and the Grizzlies, two teams that don’t have as secure coaching situations as the aforementioned teams.

That isn’t to say that those coaches don’t have security. Both teams will be very good next year and possibly even title contenders if things break right for them. Nevertheless, both coaches went through their own doubts last offseason. The Grizzlies almost self combusted with Joerger nearly becoming the Minnesota Timberwolves’ coach and McHale didn’t have the best reputation going into the Rockets’ stellar season. Many thought McHale’s job was on the line going into the season before he signed an extension with the team.

Again, I can’t stress enough that I don’t believe these two will get fired. My point is this: there is always a surprise firing or two that raises eyebrows amongst the basketball world. If I had to choose choose someone for this and if they end up being two of the odd teams out, I would start with Joerger and McHale.

Markieff Morris outlasting Jeff Hornacek

by Philip Rossman-Reich (@omagicdaily) — Hardwood Paroxysm

The Markieff Morris situation in Phoenix is absolutely toxic at this point. He has said he wants out. He has hinted he might pout until he gets out. He has trashed the organization.

Yet, Phoenix still really needs him. The Suns only have Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic to play power forward unless they want to pair Alex Len with Tyson Chandler. And, frankly, pairing Morris with Chandler would be a great boost to Morris, his potential trade value and his career. Spreading the floor with Morris at the four will give Chandler plenty of room to roll through the lane on pick and rolls.

Phoenix will surely be trying to trade Morris as the relationship has gotten pretty bad. But Phoenix also clearly needs to make sure they get value back for him and Morris has pretty much tanked that notion through his comments.

That part seems really hard for the Suns.

Let’s presume then that Morris makes it to the season in a Phoenix uniform with the team still shopping him around. Where does that leave Phoenix?

Two years ago, the Suns were the darlings of the NBA coming within a game of making the Playoffs, losing the last spot to the Grizzlies in the final week of the season. From there, the Suns dropped from 48-34 to 39-43 last year. That fall included trading away Goran Dragic and new signee Isaiah Thomas. This is a team that is still guard based, but using guards like Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe as the key pieces with Tyson Chandler in the pick and roll. This could be an interesting team.

But the Suns could definitely be a team that has the bottom fall out some. This does not look like a Playoff team. Not at all. And even 39 wins might be asking for a lot in a much-improved Western Conference.

Maybe Phoenix’s expectations are more tempered, but this team’s future does not seem particularly clear. It does not seem to guarantee an upward trajectory.

With all the promise the team showed a few years ago, these steps back in the last few years have to be concerning. That should turn up the pressure on Jeff Hornacek. Was his rookie season as a coach a flash in the pan? Are the Suns committed to a rebuild now after that flirtation with the Playoffs?

It seems Phoenix has a lot of unanswered questions. It really depends on the direction the team wants to go and what its expectations are entering the season.

Morris is going to get traded at some point. The Suns cannot pretend to live with him and he does not seem ready to live with the Suns anymore.

My question remains whether Phoenix and Hornacek can survive with the roster that has been left to him. If Phoenix is thinking the Playoffs at all, Hornacek seems to be the easy choice to get the axe.

Maybe Morris outlasts him because of Phoenix’s depth issues at that position.

Finding Faried

By Derek James (@DerekJamesNBA) — Hardwood Paroxysm

It feels like it has been forever that Kenneth Faried has possibly been available. Understandably, Faried is a great rebounder and high motor player. At worst, Faried brings limited shooting range and isn’t someone you would accuse of being an elite player. Worst yet, even before the regime change, it seemed Faried’s relationship with the Nuggets seemed strained.

New coach Mike Malone has said publicly that he wants to see if he can reach Faried in a similar manner in which he did with DeMarcus Cousins in Sacramento. Malone will love Faried’s rebounding and seemingly plays into his plans to exploit the altitude advantage by running, but it’s Faried’s defense that may be the iffy fit. Additionally, new coaches typically want to bring in guys who fit their vision, and if Faried doesn’t fit, well, that may be the tipping point for Faried in Denver.

Understandably, Malone wants to see what he has with the current roster. And why not? Faried can be an efficient shooter who plays within himself by taking 90 percent of his shots from within 10 feet. If Malone can somehow flick the Team USA switch in Faried, and get that to carry over to the NBA season, their relationship may workout. However, given the competition level of the international game, and the length of the NBA season, it may not be a realistic expectation. At least not for all 82 games.

A factor as important as any may be whether or not the Nuggets are successful this season. If the Nuggets are losing and Faried hasn’t hurt his value, then that may be the time to actively shop him. On the other hand, being successful may cause the team to decide to see just how far they can push it.

The thing is that it may be difficult to trade Faried for two reasons. First, Faried’s extension kicks in through next year, and is owed $50 million through 2019. Which brings me to my second point, and that is despite the rising cap, Faried may not be as valuable in today’s NBA given his range and defense. $11 million may not be that much, and Faried does do things of value, but are they enough to where teams are going to want to give Denver back something of value?

Essentially, if you can spend $50 million over the next four years on a player that suits the direction most teams are heading? Or a player that does a couple of things well that you could get cheaper elsewhere, would you? Faried’s contract isn’t “bad” but the Nuggets may find that Faried doesn’t have the value they think he does. In the end, someone would likely take him, but may not be the exact return they imagined.

Then again, the Nuggets may not care given this quote from this Kevin Arnovitz piece on ESPN.com from last November:

"Several sources around the league insist the Nuggets’ hand was forced with regard to Faried. After the signing of Hickson to a three-year, approximately $16 million contract soon after Connelly’s arrival, the sense was the bouncy big man was insurance against Faried’s departure in free agency in 2014. Faried was a fan favorite in Denver, but multiple sources with knowledge of the Nuggets’ thinking maintain the team “isn’t crazy about him,” particularly Shaw. But with Faried’s boffo showing last summer with Team USA and a loyal following in Denver, the media-conscious Nuggets caved, adding yet another imperfect 4-man to their lot.“[Faried] is a helluva player and plays hard, but he isn’t well liked [in the organization],” a league source said. “That gets glossed over. He says crazy s—. He thinks he’s the guy, and other guys take exception to his contract.”"

A good showing on a bad team would really maximize what the Nuggets could get for Faried. At the age of 25, he still has time to improve. There’s still the possibility that Faried could enhance his jumper and improve as a defender as he nears 30. If he does, he may look like more of a core player instead of a guy who fills one specific niche. Suddenly, you’re not paying $11 million dollars for someone who rebounds and scores almost exclusively in the paint.

It wouldn’t surprise me one way or the other if Kenneth Faried wasn’t a Nugget at this time next year, but it seems that considering the team was reluctant to extend him, and the coaching change, that Faried’s days in Denver could be numbered.

Brandon Jennings’ Swan Song in Detroit

by Bryan Toporek (@btoporek) — Hardwood Paroxysm

When your team gives a five-year, $80 million contract to a player who plays the same position as you, it’s not often a great sign about your future with that franchise. That’s doubly true when you’re entering a contract year, much less coming off a torn Achilles tendon.

In other words: Here’s hoping Brandon Jennings hasn’t bought a house in Detroit just yet.

Jennings himself sees the writing on the wall. During a recent appearance on Comcast SportsNet’s The Point Game Podcast, the seventh-year floor general conceded “I probably won’t be back to myself until at least around December” and said he wasn’t sure he’d be ready for training camp. He also claimed he’d be fine coming off the bench behind Reggie Jackson, the recipient of the aforementioned monster contract this summer.

Though head coach Stan Van Gundy appears open to a dual-PG lineup — he told MLive’s David Mayo that he “think[s] it can work,” citing the times Jackson played alongside Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City — Jackson is clearly the point guard Detroit plans on building around. That leaves the soon-to-be 26-year-old Jennings, who was in the midst of posting career-highs in PER and true shooting percentage last season before tearing his Achilles, in an awkward spot.

Jennings’ best hope is to work his way back into some regular early-season minutes, serving as a de facto tryout for the rest of the league. He’s unlikely to fetch much in a trade, seeing as any interested suitor could simply sign him as a free agent next summer, but point guard-needy teams could resort to desperate measures to acquire his Bird rights. If, for instance, the Sacramento Kings’ experiment with Rajon Rondo goes to hell, Vlade Divac and Co. should at least kick the tires on acquiring Jennings, providing the cost isn’t too prohibitive.

Given how well Jennings was playing before tearing his Achilles — in his final 13 games, he averaged 20.9 points on 43.5 percent shooting, 7.2 assists and 2.5 treys — his upside is considerable if he works his way back from his injury without complications. That’s a big “if,” admittedly, which is why Van Gundy will need to ease Jennings back into the rotation to start the year. Suffering a setback would eviscerate what little trade value he may have.

The Pistons, knowing they’re going to lose Jennings in free agency, would be wise to flip him at the trade deadline (or before) for whatever they can get. They sealed his fate the second they signed Jackson to his mammoth contract this summer. It’s only a matter of time before the two part ways, and Detroit figures to expedite the process by mid-February at the latest.

Jamal Crawford Finds Lucky Team Seven

by Dan Lewis (@minutemandan) — Hardwood Paroxysm

Jamal Crawford was a top 10 pick in the vaunted 2000 draft, taken with the No. 8 pick by the Cleveland Cavaliers before a trade to the Chicago Bulls for Chris Mihm. He was able to figure things out in the 2002-03 season, and he’s averaged double digit points every season since then. He’s a dynamic scoring threat on offense, dazzling crowds with his ability to dribble with the ball on a leash and splash fadeaway jumpers from all over the court. Last season, at 34 years young, Crawford was still good for 15.8 points per game with a 46.7 eFG percentage.

Unfortunately for Crawford, those numbers aren’t on par with his production from previous seasons. While he was still able to be the primary offensive threat off the bench, the Clippers were lacking wing depth, and often had to hide Crawford on defense. Crawford struggled to rebound on defense, and efficiency evaporated in the playoffs. A career 35 percent 3-point shooter, Crawford finished the year below that at 32.7 percent from behind the arc, with an awful 24.3 percent during the playoffs when they needed his help the most.

This year, Crawford is back with the Clippers in his usual role, slated to come off the bench and lead a second unit alongside Austin Rivers, Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith and Cole Adrich. For a team that was one win away from the Western Conference Finals, the expectations are high for a team that has the talent to be champions. After a dramatic offseason, the Clippers brought in Paul Pierce, Stephenson, Wesley Johnson, Aldrich, Josh Smith, Chuck Hayes, and Pablo Prigioni. They are a veteran squad, with one player, C.J. Wilcox, on a rookie contract. Most of their players grew up having to rewind a movie after they finished watching it before returning it to the store.

Crawford does fit with the Clippers this season – they’ve reloaded for another championship run, with a team that won’t look the same next season. But if Doc Rivers is both invested in this season while keeping one eye on the future, dealing Crawford is the one obvious move they have available to them. Scoping the league for another expiring contract to pick up a defender for the playoffs could be an option, or picking up a draft pick to help put fuel in the tank for 2016-17 could be another direction the Clippers could go down.

The offense for the Clippers is going to be fine. They were one of the top offenses in the league last season, and replacing Matt Barnes with Paul Pierce only sharpens their sword. When those aching ankles, knees and backs start flaring up in March, the Clippers could use someone who wasn’t old enough to vote in the last presidential election.

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