The state of the NBA rivalry

This week’s news that the NBA’s Competition Committee had removed divisional champions from the calculus for playoff seeding was a significant[1. Or at least significantly symbolic] change to the league’s postseason structure. Divisions were originally designed to consolidate travel and foster rivalries. For now they will remain intact as a schedule building tool, reducing travel for many teams. However, the degree to which they have fostered rivalries is up for debate. The league’s most obvious historical rivalry — the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics — was driven by players and personalities instead of geography. As Adi Joseph wrote at Sporting News, it has often been repeat playoff matchups that build rivalries, which are then washed away by the natural ebb and flow of talent each team undergoes.

A few weeks ago, wanting to get an idea of the current state of NBA rivalries, I sent out a survey to collect information about the perception of different matchups. Respondents were asked to select two rivalries that were relevant in today’s NBA, using any combination of teams. They were then asked to rate the intensity of that rivalry on a scale of 1-5, with a 5 being the most intense. I received 419 responses, so we’re far from a definitive sample size. Still, I think the results showed some interesting things.

In all, 109 different rivalries were identified by the respondents but only 17 appeared at least 10 times:

In the minds of those who responded, there are really only two rivalries that stand out — Warriors-Clippers and Bulls-Cavaliers. While three of the top four rivalries identified were divisional opponents, it’s hard to argue that they have been emphasized by repeated regular season matchups. Warriors-Clippers is wrapped up in recent playoff series and public sniping. Bulls-Cavs is mostly about the history of one player — LeBron James — against one team. Mavericks-Rockets has a geographical component but is also underscored by a history front office personalities butting heads[2. And the free agent signing of Chandler Parsons]. Mavericks-Clippers was another commonly identified rivalry which almost certainly rose up the list because of the DeAndre Jordan free agent emoji war this summer.

Celtics-Lakers and Cavaliers-Warriors were the only rivalries to cross conferences with one drawn from the distant past and the other from the most recent present. The point is that the distaste for each other that drives a rivalry probably needs both proximity and some sort of trigger.

This next graph shows the same rivalries identified above, but by the average intensity score.

The Warriors-Clippers rivalry stays on top, while several other Clippers’ rivalries leapfrog the Bulls-Cavaliers matchup. Altogether, five of the most-identified rivalries involved the Clippers, which we’ll circle back to in a minute.

I found it really interesting that the general ratings were so low. Overall, just over two-thirds of the rivalries were given a score of 3 or 4. This may be a quirk of my survey or respondents[3. Or, again, the small sample] but I assumed that 5 would be the most common score, given that respondents were selecting the rivalries that stuck out most to them. This was not the case at all and may imply that the emotional involvement of these rivalries is not as strong as we (I) assume.

Of the 166 scores of 5 that were handed out, 61 of them went to the Warriors-Clippers rivalry. The next highest total was Bulls-Cavaliers with 19. Just to emphasize how much animosity there seems to be towards Chris Paul and company — 102 of the 166 scores of 5 that were handed out were to a rivalry that involved the Clippers. They were the team that appeared the most often and seemed to elicit the strongest opinions. The personalities on that team are strong, public and elicit a lot of distaste from fans of other teams, all of which again underscores that rivalries are about how we feel about the players themselves.

All of this information comes from the second half of the survey. On the first half I asked respondents to select the team that they rooted for or followed most closely and then select their team’s biggest rivalry (and rate it on the same scale). The idea with these separate questions was to try and get at the directionality of a rivalry. For example, do Celtics fans feel more strongly about their rivalry with the Lakers than the other way around.

I think this question is unfortunately unanswerable with the small number of responses I collected. The graph below shows all rivalries that were identified at least 10 times by fans of one team. Next to that bar, you’ll see how fans of the other team rated the same rivalry.

In most cases each fanbase rated the rivalry with similar intensity. The big exceptions are where sample size comes into play. For example, no Lakers fans rated the Jazz as their primary rival. This is the same case for the Rockets with the Thunder and the Sixers with the Celtics. Clippers-Grizzlies and Lakers-Kings only received one response each. With a larger sample, or a better designed survey I might have been able to get a clear answer to this question.

There is obviously a lot more I’d like to know about rivalries around the NBA, but at least we have some significant statistical evidence that people really do hate the Clippers.