Happy Sunday! We are back for another season of NFL handicapping, and things went fairly well a year ago with a winning record over the course of the calendar. Some feel that the beginning of the season is more difficult because of the lack of data available, but in the same breath, the sportsbooks are in a defensive position, and there is almost always a few lines that can be exploited in week one.
If you didn’t join with us for the 2014 season, “fade the public” is the general principle of this column. If there is anything to indicate that the “sharper” investment leads toward one direction, we will often be the first to pounce on it, even if it requires some ignorance to reality and public perception. That often results in underdogs (and unders in the world of totals), but the lines are fluid and so are we.
Here is a snapshot of where we were last year:
- Last Week (Super Bowl): 3-2
- 2014 Season: 54-46-2
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at this week’s selections!
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) over Houston Texans
The Texans spent the preseason under the bright lights of “Hard Knocks”, and that singlehandedly makes Bill O’Brien’s team a very public side in this match-up. J. J. Watt is the best defensive player alive, Houston has a stud wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and, well, there is almost nothing exciting about the Chiefs from the standpoint of a casual fan.
However, Kansas City is almost certainly the better team on paper, and this tiny number makes the Chiefs quite appetizing. Most of the public action appears to be on the Texans, but the line has already dipped from an opening point of 1.5, and when the number moves against the public, big money is usually on the sharper side.
Alex Smith won’t “win” the game for the Chiefs, but Houston is going to have issues of their own at the quarterback position. Kansas City is simply the better team here, and with a line that should probably illustrate that, I’ll take the value.
Next: Bills over Colts