Shelby Miller: Is it Time to Abolish the Wins Category?
By Brad Kelly
There has been an argument tossed around over the last couple of seasons in baseball circles on whether or not we should still value the wins category as much as we usually do instead of appreciating more of the peripheral stats.
I was usually all for keeping the Wins stat paramount and looking to it as a part of measuring a pitchers success season to season, but after 2015 I have begun to waver some on that notion. The main reason I am questioning this sentiment is, Shelby Miller.
As well all know Miller came over to the Braves in the Jason Heyward deal, but at the time fantasy owners and fans across baseball were skeptical on what edition of Miller the Braves would get going forward.
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We would quickly come to find out that the Braves not only got a good version of Miller, but they would also would have found their ace.
Miller’s 2015 would go down as a career season as he eclipsed his career bests in games started, innings pitched, FIP, and strikeouts. All his peripheral stats point to a SP1 in fantasy except for one bugaboo, he only amassed six wins while taking 17 loses.
The main culprit for this would have to be the Atlanta Braves offense. The Braves were dead last in baseball in Runs scored, home runs, OPS, and total bases. Clearly Miller knew that he was not going to get offensive support, so he either had to shut teams out or only give up one or two runs a night.
The Braves lineup was certainly inept this season, but Miller had to also fight the fact that the Braves sported one of the league’s worst bullpens as well. Losing Jason Grilli certainly hurt, but their bullpen had the second worst ERA in baseball and blew 26 saves. Take into account that they only had 70 save opportunities all season, so they basically blew half that total!
In the six games Miller managed to win he had a 1.05 ERA, in the 17 he lost his ERA was only 4.44 and in his 10 no decisions it was 2.14. This further shows how well Miller pitched, but also the support he lacked as well. Especially when you look around baseball at guys you had near 5.00 ERAs but managed to easily double Miller’s wins total.
Fantasy owners should start to rethink some of their league settings next season with a possible change in mind. I still believe that the Wins stat holds weight in baseball, but maybe not as much fantasy wise as it used to. I know there have been plenty of times where I would lose an entire Wins category to relievers coming in and getting one out, yet still notching the W that night.
I would offer owners to instead try eliminating Wins and replace it with QS, or quality starts, next season which offers you a better chance at garnering value from pitchers that shouldn’t be penalized because of a team’s lack of offense. It will shake things up a bit, but also offer a better representation of the most value starters in baseball as opposed to more of the luckier ones in better situations.