A.J. Pollock: Can He Repeat His Performance in 2016?
By Bill Pivetz
Finding value late in drafts is one cornerstone to a successful season. After drafting your superstar hitters and ace pitchers, you need to find those high-risk, high-reward players. One of those hitters that was a late-draft pick and paid off handsomely for his fantasy owners was Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock.
Pollock has been improving year after year. And it’s been across all stats, not just one. Runs, hits, home runs, RBI and batting average have all went up since he joined the league in 2012. This season, he finished with 192 hits, 20 home runs, 76 RBI, 39 stolen bases and a .315 batting average in 157 games.
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A.J. Pollock also had a 89:53 K:BB ratio. His 13.2 strikeout percentage is good for ninth among qualified outfielders and 30th among all hitters. The patience he showed at the plate this season forced pitchers to throw balls closer to the strike zone.
This performance is something we should have seen coming, though. In the first 52 games of the 2014 season, A.J. Pollock had 56 hits, six home runs, 15 RBI and eight stolen bases with a .316 batting average. He had 7 HR/24 RBI/14 SBs/.302 in 75 games. If you equate those final numbers to a full season, 145 games, he would have hit 14 homers, 46 RBI and 27 stolen bases.
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While I don’t think he would have reached 27 stolen bases, it goes to show that if he was healthy, he wouldn’t have been drafted as late as he was this season. Pollock had an ADP of 164.7 (17th round) as the 41st outfielder selected, behind players like Alex Rios, Jayson Werth and Leonys Martin among other struggling outfielders.
A.J. Pollock is in my consideration for Sleeper of the Year, solely based on his production as a 17th-round pick. As the No. 2 or 3 hitter behind Paul Goldschmidt, the probability is high for a repeat season. In a weak division, Pollock was able to hit .310 within his division.
I think 2016 is the season he reaches 20/40 while maintaining a .300 batting average.
Projections: 185 hits, 22 home runs, 81 RBI, 41 SBs, .301 batting average
Draft: Round 5