Let’s get this out of the way immediately: this game is absolutely a betting stay-away. The Indianapolis Colts are visiting the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football at NRG Stadium, which usually means it is time to bet the house and at least two of the kids on the Colts. Indianapolis is favored by a point, with the over/under set at 44.5, according to OddsShark.
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This time is different, because we have no idea who will be the starting quarterback for the Colts come Thursday night. Indianapolis was without starting quarterback Andrew Luck last week, and managed to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in overtime, thanks to Jacksonville missing a pair of potentially game-winning field goals. Matt Hasselbeck did come in to complete 30-of-47 passes for 287 yards and a touchdown, but this week both Luck and Hasselbeck have been listed as questionable.
General manager Ryan Grigson gave us a pretty good clue that one of the quarterbacks would not be ready to play, when he signed Josh Johnson on Wednesday morning to the active 53-man roster. Johnson might even get the start if both Hasselbeck and Luck can’t go, although that seems unlikely.
If you still want to bet on the game, the trends say that both teams are horrific against the spread. Houston is 1-4 ATS over its last five games, while Indianapolis is 0-5, per OddsShark. Meanwhile, the Colts have shockingly gone UNDER in 10 of their last 11 games, perhaps making that the obvious bet. If Hasselbeck and Ryan Mallett get together, the UNDER seems unstoppable.