Kyle Schwarber: Fantasy Value in 2016?
By Brad Kelly
Did you hear that?
If so, that noise was probably Kyle Schwarber’s homerun from Tuesday night landing on your roof. He, like nearly every Cubs player, has been on absolute tear since the beginning of the playoffs and it will certainly play a part in his value heading into 2016.
We often see it every year as a torrid playoff run will parlay itself into 2016 drafts as these performances are the freshest and stick out the most to owners. This can often prove to be problematic because it doesn’t always correlate to nest season success, but in Schwarber’s case, it may be something of note.
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Schwarber’s value will certainly be buoyed by the fact that he should qualify at the C spot afyer playing 20+ games there in 2016. He will more than likely be selected and inserted there, with the added benefit that he should not see a lot of time behind the plate.
He may see some starts there during the year but the Cubs seems to be content on leaving him in left field and for the most part he has seemed serviceable there defensively.
The C position as well know is top heavy and one owners often never chase early in drafts. The good thing is that we just had another type of these situations in 2015 as Evan Gattis was highly billed as a great C pick because of his pop and the fact that he would never have to deal with the rigors of the position.
If we take an early look at the top five catches for 2016, it all starts as usual with Buster Posey. He is the standard bearer and safest bet, but after he goes Schwarber could very well enter in those next tier of top catching options to be taken.
Schwarber ended the regular season with a, .246/16 HR/43 RBI/3 SB/.842 OPS line, over just 69 games. Clearly this stat line already places him in the top 20 of catchers so to think that he only did it age 22 and in less than 70 games, proves the sky is the limit.
I do not think that his AVG will see a full rebound, but it should creep at least closer to the .260’s as his approach at the plate is way too advanced for him to be a below .250 hitter.
In terms of a ceiling, I think that he could well enter the Brian McCann range, 26 HR/94RBI, with little more average potential. The Cubs lineup will be absolutely stacked next season, so if Schwarber can stay in that prime RBI spot behind Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, the RBI will come in abundance.
Clearly owners that select Schwarber will probably have to reach for him as his postseason exploits and great rookie season are going to drive his price up. But, I believe he is worth the reach because the upside that he can offer at the C spot on a weekly basis trumps concerns.
He will experience some bumps along the way in his sophomore season, but I think that he deserves to be in top 5 conversation at the C position next season. Position weakness and his playing situation off owners the best of both worlds.