Miguel Cabrera: When Will He Get Drafted in 2016?
By Brad Kelly
It almost feels blasphemous to say it, but are we beginning to witness the decline of Miguel Cabrera?
We all know the type of resume that Cabrera has, he is going to eventually wind up in Cooperstown one day. He has also been a perennial top two pick since nearly forever it seems as well, yet over the last two seasons he has left owners with an underwhelming feeling.
Now even in his mortal seasons, he still produces premium stats. In 2014 when he battling a terrible ankle injury and he was still able to lead the league in doubles and hit .348. He did see his OPS drop thanks to a dip in his homer output during the back half of the season.
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Cabrera managed to finish the season for owners in 2014 and even though he only hit 25 homers, he still produced a first round stat line. Going into 2015 Cabrera was pretty much valued the same even though he did have off-season surgeries which delayed his spring.
In nearly every draft he would go as the number two overall pick, and owners figured that they could just pencil Cabrera in for his usual offensive exploits. However, 2015 proved another season were it may be time to worry about Cabrera going forward.
Like all good hitters and especially amongst the best, they have to have a solid base from where to generate power from. Cabrera could probably roll out of bed in December and still notch two singles, but his extra base hit output has taken a huge hit over the last two seasons.
Cabrera’s pain tolerance is certainly not in question as he somehow battled bone spurs and a stress fracture in his ankle in 2014 and still played 159 games. In 2015, he was hit with a devastating calf strain that would have probably cost most people their entire seasons, but Miggy still managed to comeback.
The hallmark of Cabrera’s success was that he put up monster numbers and played nearly every day, he had never played less than 148 games over the last 12 years heading into 2015. Even though Cabrera’s talent seems inhuman, father time remains undefeated.
The worry for owners should come that Cabrera’s last injuries haven’t been fluky in the sense of him breaking a broke a bone from a pitch or anything, rather they have both been base path and movement oriented injuries which have crept into sapping his power.
Combine his injuries with the fact that the first round in 2016 seems to be pretty deep with young and upcoming talents, so it leaves owners in the odd predicament where Cabrera could actually fall in drafts.
I would caution against allowing him to drop any further than the fifth pick, as the upside and resume cannot be found from anyone else in the entire draft pool. Even in an abbreviated 2015 season, he still won the AL batting title, and the Tigers should retool their lineup over the winter to allow more RBI potential.
I concede that there will be very enticing options in the first round of guys that are coming off career seasons, and you will remember that Cabrera injuries have slowed him down. But, one of the best tools in fantasy is to look at everything with an unbiased and collective mindset.
Cabrera’s mammoth production should account for something and the fact that you could potentially be lucky enough to have him fall to you outside of the top three picks is an opportunity that shouldn’t be passed up.