The Lakers, floor balance, and transition defense

Prediction: In the month of November, the Los Angeles Lakers will rank last in opponent points per possession (PPP) after defensive rebounds and turnovers.

A basic principle of basketball is that teams have a harder time scoring against set defenses than they do against defenses that are forced to get set in transition. This principle is evident in the advanced metrics as the league average PPP on FGA’s after a made basket (set defense) last season was 1.01 while the league average PPP on FGA’s after a missed basket (less set) was 1.04.  That number jumps to 1.13 PPP on possessions following a turnover, possessions when the defense is usually not set at all.

The main way to limit the number of non-set defensive possessions is to score a lot of points since scoring a basket forces the opponent to take the ball out of bounds, allowing time for the defense to get back and set up.  However, on the occasions that a team does not put the ball in the basket (missed shot, turnover, etc.) it is imperative that a team maintains proper floor balance so that the defense is in position to deter transition opportunities.

In this instance, proper floor balance means ending an offensive possession in position to defend the ensuing play.  It is when a team is forced to defend in transition but fails to have players in position to get back that their defense gives up the most points.  Preferably, you’d have one player back to prevent a cherry pick and another player, usually a guard, who is in position to slow the ball handler and keep them from getting into the open court.

There are certain offensive tendencies that lead to this type of floor balance.  The first, and most important one, is shot selection.  As Seth Partnow has detailed, shots from certain spots on the court tend to produce a disproportionate number of transition points.  Missed FGA’s in the paint, especially from point guards and perimeter players, tends to give up the highest PPP to opponents on the ensuing possession.  3-point shots from above the break tend to give up the lowest PPP to opponents on the ensuing possession.  This isn’t to say that guards should never get into the paint or that teams should only shoot above the break 3’s. Rather, the results of good offensive process will limit the number of possessions that end with guards missing shots in the paint and no defenders back to defend the ensuing possession.

The 2nd most important tendency is how frequently teams pursue offensive rebounds, especially when that pursuit comes from perimeter players.  Last season, the Timberwolves were unique in both their pursuit of offensive rebounds and their insanely bad defensive rating off of missed baskets.  Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine were typical rookies in that their FG% in the paint (Non restricted area) was fairly low.  LaVine in particular struggled with efficiency in the paint and a propensity toward chasing highlight offensive rebounds rather than maintaining floor balance.

In short, the Timberwolves took a lot of shots that led to opponent transition opportunities including a lot of mid-range jumpers and guard FGA’s in the paint, while also over-pursuing offensive rebounds, especially from the guard and wing positions.

This season, the Lakers look primed to take over where the Timberwolves left off.  Last season, the Lakers were 28th in defensive efficiency after missed FGA’s and 26th after turnovers.  This helped make the Lakers the 29th worst defense in the league last season and the addition of two rookies and an aging star should only augment their defensive struggles.  Like the Timberwolves, the Lakers also have an offensive process that leads to a lot of mid-range shots and guard shots in the paint.

Floor balance can be a subtle skill to learn in the NBA and, like the 2014-15 Timberwolves, the Lakers will have a very young back court that features rookie D’Angelo Russell and second-year Jordan Clarkson.  Both have struggled with floor balance in the preseason, especially D’Angelo, who must learn when to be aggressive at getting into the paint and when the transition defense is most at risk from his drives into the lane.

In the video below, D’Angelo takes a mid-range pull-up early in the shot clock when all four of his teammates are near the baseline.  Nobody is back on defense and the shot leads to an easy runout.

Kobe Bryant will also have an effect on the team’s transition defense.  Last season, Kobe had nearly twice as many turnovers as anyone else on the roster and he’s older and probably slower entering the season this year.  Roy Hibbert is another big, slow body that will take an extra second getting up and down the court.  With two slower players in the rotation, the Lakers back court will have to be even more mindful of floor balance for transition as poor floor balance will almost certainly lead to easy buckets on the other end.  Those habits will probably take awhile to develop so look for the Lakers to struggle in transition defense early in the season.