2015-16 NBA Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

At some point, the 76ers will function like a team trying to win games, but we’re not there yet. It’s another year with a collection of names few NBA fans would recognize with two promising young guys and a couple veterans. And Philadelphia won’t just be tracking its own progress in the lottery but the Lakers’ too, as their top-three protected pick is owed to the 76ers. It’s still all about development and asset collection right now.

2015 in review:

Philadephia was actually better than advertised, though they were still one of the worst teams in the league. Shockingly, they were a competent defensive team, ranking near the league average in defensive rating, as rookie Nerlens Noel was a savant on that end of the court and the team as a whole committed to contesting shots and creating turnovers – they were actually second in the league in opponent turnover percentage, per b-ref. The team started slowly, but once Noel rounded into shape, as he was coming off a major injury, the team had its moments and proved they were no pushovers. Of course, the flipside is that they had one of the worst offensive seasons in NBA history.

Rotation players in: Jahil Okafor, Kendall Marshall, Nik Stauskas, Carl Landry.

Rotation players out: Luc Mbah a Moute, Michael-Carter Williams, Henry Sims, K.J. McDaniels.

Although the team received a lot of criticism for dumping Michael-Carter Williams well before his rookie contract expired, the 76ers have found some decent replacements in Kendall Marshall, a pass-first NBA point guard whose skills are quite needed, and Isaiah Canaan, a young guy who launches threes with reckless abandon they actually picked up last season. Okafor is the name people will be looking for, but Henry Sims was an underrated center who played quite well for Philly. Losing Mbah a Moute’s defense hurts too, while Stauskas is looking to revive his career away from the dysfunctional Kings.

2016 Projected

The 76ers should be one of the most improved teams in the league, and it’s for a simple reason: they’re very young and another year of seasoning helps them tremendously. Sam Hinkie hasn’t been rebuilding every summer – they have a lot of returning players. There are few better ways to learn than actually going out on the floor and competing.

And yes, the players actually competed and they will again this season. Here’s a good rule of thumb: organizations tank; players don’t. These guys are fighting for their next contract, and since most of them were recently drafted it’s a very important contract for their future security. Plus, if they weren’t actually trying, how were they 13^th in defensive efficiency, per basketball-reference? Actually, that underrates them in a way because they didn’t get the easiest defensive assignment in the league: their own team.

Since defense was their strength last season, it’ll be interesting to see how that changes with Okafor at center given his limitations. He’s replacing Henry Sims, who was a competent defender with weak rebounding stats, and it’ll likely mean Noel will play more at power forward. Okafor had issues with defensive rebounding, which is actually a team-wide problem, and his lateral quickness and effort are well below average for a high prospect. Duke often restructured its defense to accommodate his issues, and Philadelphia could do the same, dropping him back aggressively like Al Jefferson in Charlotte and conceding midrange shots and openings at the center of the floor to move his huge frame to the rim.

The hope is that Okafor’s offense will override his issues on the other end of the court, but I have my doubts. Al Jefferson is the most common comparison, but given his efficient scoring in college, his size, and his weak defense and rebounding I think a healthy Brook Lopez is a reasonable facsimile. Brook at his best is actually fairly efficient once you factor in his low turnover rate with his magnificent touch and effective yet slow post moves. Okafor is not the low-post prophet we’ve all been waiting for, as I’ve written about here, because historically great centers usually have a wide skillset and aren’t just post scorers – the fact that he’s a terrible foul shooter is not a great sign. He needs the added efficiency of those free throws because from what was seen from him in summer league and the pre-season, he’s so ground-bound that he’ll be rejected and contested well often.

Outside of Okafor, there’s some semblance of a real offensive ball club. Robert Covington and Hollis Thompson provide some capable outside shooting; Covington is pretty aggressive and will drive to the basket but Thompson mainly just stands in the corner a la Bruce Bowen. The team gets steady three-point shooting from its point guards too even though they’re quite dissimilar. Marshall has had one of the highest assist rates of the past three seasons, but he’s an extreme player who also gets abnormally low rebound and block rates with sky-high turnover rates. Coupled with Okafor’s passing out of the double team, which has potential, there’s some real potential here. The problem is that Nerlens Noel is one of their best players and he’ll have to fit in at power forward with a poor jump shot. The lane could get crowded.

Naturally, it’s tough to project much of Philadelphia beyond their core players because it’s a team known for cycling through a dozen athletes in a season and dumping every single one. This is partly why they presumably chose to play at a high pace and push in transition – if they stall and have to function in a half-court setting, there could be two or three players who have absolutely no idea how to operate in a structured NBA offense. However, they were awful in transition too, ranking last in points per possession in the 22-18 second shot clock range.

Quick statistic/graph

Philly’s defense masked something historically bad: their offense. They were off the charts awful compared to everyone else last season, like they were playing a different game. Looking at every available season and adjusting for the league average, and they were on the far extreme end of incompetence. Only the Nuggets in 2003 and the Clippers in 1988 were worse … and that’s going back to the implementation of the shot clock.

Summary

The 76ers are a team set in the future, awaiting the arrival of Saric and a bevy of draft picks with young players who have a lot to learn. But they should be better this season and there’s some basic outline of a real team starting to emerge from the turbulence. It’s a fast-paced, athletic team, and the defense of Noel and the post moves from Okafor could make this team surprisingly watchable.

PBP-Metric[6. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats from 15 seasons collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 25.8

PT-PM: 24

Nick‘s[7. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 25

Nathan Walker: 23