2015-16 NBA Preview: Dallas Mavericks

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Dallas recently hired a couple Nylon Calculus writers[1. Congrats Kevin and Krishna.], so naturally the Mavericks are on the way to the top. But right now they’re struggling with a veteran team in transition as Dirk Nowitzki ages and becomes less of a force and the team tries to spackle on talent to keep up with the playoff arms race in the west. Dallas failed in rein in DeAndre Jordan during a bizarre free agent fiasco, but they nabbed Deron Williams, a target from a previous season, and a couple other pieces, and they’ll battle injuries and the perils of being in the division of death.

(Ed. Note: This post was written and published before Saturday’s surprising news that Dallas had waived Samuel Dalembert.)

2015 in review:

Through the first third of the season, Dallas was 19-8 with a pretty healthy point differential, but more interestingly they had a blistering 116.8 offensive rating per b-ref. For those unfamiliar with the scale, over a full season that kind of season could have an argument for greatest offensive season ever. It would have been truly historic. Their TS% and turnover rate would have both ranked first too for a full season, and their offensive rebound rate would have been 11th. Alas, a team with an electric offense traded for a ball dominant point guard who couldn’t shoot, Rajon Rondo, and the house of cards tumbled. The offense would have regressed anyway and gotten at least a little worse, but the difference was huge after the trade: their offensive rating fell by nearly ten points, and Rondo was such a disaster that he was taken out of the rotation during the playoffs. With an injury to Chandler Parsons and age affecting key pieces like Dirk, it was a disappointing end to the season that was capped by a free agent fiasco in the summer.

Rotation players in: Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert, Justin Anderson.

Rotation players out: Monta Ellis, Tyson Chandler, Al-Farouq Aminu, Rajon Rondo, Richard Jefferson.

Deron Williams is no longer a star recruit, so he was a cheap focus and could fit in well in Dallas’ system at this point in his career. Wesley Matthews has been recovering well, but an Achilles injury is devastating and he may not be the same ever again. Zaza Pachulia is a high-post, smart team defender who’s filling the void at center — after a boondoggle like the Mavs experienced, he’s a pretty good plan B, all things considered. Sam Dalembert will help at center too, hopefully, because he played well for Dallas when he was last there. Justin Anderson is a potential 3/D player, but he’s a rookie and may not be valuable right away, if ever.

Monta Ellis had a career resurgence in Dallas due to his ability to slice opposing teams in pick and rolls, and the Mavs will miss his skills and shot-creating ability in half-court sets. The team will also definitely miss Tyson Chandler and his defense, and what’s funny is that Mark Cuban vowed to bring him back after they made the mistake of letting him go after the title; it didn’t last long this time. Al-Farouq Aminu’s defense will be missed too. If Matthews can’t provide similar cover, the team could have major issues on the wings. And finally, Rondo was discussed and Richard Jefferson moved his veteran presence to another locker room.

2016 Projected

There were a couple different Dallas teams last season, so it’s tough to envision exactly how they’re changing and what it means. The iteration with Ellis flanked by another ball-handler or two diving through seams on the court with Dirk dragging a team’s focus to the perimeter while Chandler or Wright cut to the rim is mostly gone and instead a few pieces of an awkward but still decent Mavericks team is being merged with a handful of new guys. Even though some of the faces remain, functionally the team will be quite different.

Starting inside, Pachulia and Dalembert are in no way alike and can’t replicate what Tyson Chandler provided. Zaza is a polar opposite to Chandler on offense, and that’s no exaggeration. He’s one of the worst finishers at the rim for big men, annually ranking down with Roy Hibbert and a bunch of short guards, while Chandler is one of the best finishers in modern history. The imported center instead plays the role of facilitator and midrange jump shooter; and, of course, Chandler did not have those skills. Dalembert, however, has (or had) that kind of athleticism, but he didn’t have the touch or the skills in a pick and roll to capitalize like Tyson did.

While spacing is the popular term now, there are other ways to pressure the defense and Chandler was one of the best pick and roll finishers in the game, and he had a positive effect on his teammates because opposing defenses had to track and cover him aggressively. That’s why DeAndre Jordan had the best real plus/minus in the NBA last season despite his errant free throw shooting — he was a huge lob threat and played well with Chris Paul. Wright was excellent in that regard too, and Dallas lost both those targets. Dalembert, meanwhile, looks like one of the worst offensive centers in the league in terms of impact, and that’s including his recent season with Dallas.

Speaking of RPM, the statistic saw Pachulia as a borderline all-star last season, and as was discussed in the Bucks preview this is probably erroneous for a few reasons. Pachulia’s an underrated player and he does a few things much better than most fans realize, but skepticism is warranted when a ground-bound player who blocks shots at the rate of a guard suddenly looks like a great defensive player.

However, defense is about a lot more than blocking shots, and there a few legitimate signs. For example, plus/minus data can be thrown by fluky three-point percentages because defenses have less control over that than most other aspects of defense, but the percentage was actually down when he was off the court, not on, via NBAWOWY. Plus, the best sign of an interior defense is that the opposing team takes fewer shots at the rims and the shots that are taken have a lower conversion rate, which happened with Pachulia. The real test will be this season in Dallas, but he really is a good defender in the right system.

Those questions are common across the roster. It’s unclear how good Matthews can be for the team, and it’s never wise to try to predict how well Deron Williams will play anymore. Even Chandler Parsons has questions because of his knee injury and his limitations on defense. When healthy, the team could work with its rotation of point guards in Deron, Barea, and Devin Harris providing a combination of ballhandling and shooting with Matthews taking tough defensive assignments. The spacing could be excellent too — Pachulia plays outside of the paint and Dirk, of course, is the ultimate stretch four, and most of their rotation perimeter players have three-point range.

The problem is that Dallas no longer has superstar as an anchor for the team. Dirk Nowitzki’s mobility is dwindling year by year, which has led to him becoming a liability[3. When discussing his all-time ranking, people are quick to label him a poor defender, but in his prime that was not true at all. That can be backed-up by years of defensive evidence, as the Mavs were usually a little better with him on the court.]. He can no longer shoulder a considerable offensive burden either, which limits his offensive impact. It’s a sad decline, but as long as they can hide him on defense he can step out onto the court and hit his rainbow jumpers. Dallas just can’t build around him anymore.

Quick statistic/graph

Samuel Dalembert has the size and springs to be an intimidating presence at the rim, but the results have always been disappointing over the course of his career. He never had the impact of an all-defense defender, and it’s due to poor awareness and coordination. He’s consistently a goaltending leader, swatting shots after they’re on their way down and ensuring the opposition gets the two points. The goaltending leaders table below is an interesting set of players[4. The leaders are all from seasons 2001 and on, and the only seasons from the 90’s show up quite a bit further down the list starting with players like Ostertag. I’m not sure if this is due to an error in the play-by-play data not picking up on every goaltending violation or an actual change in the rate of these events.]. There are some elite defenders with a couple of shall we say colorful characters like JaVale McGee[4. On the Mavs himself as a reclamation project.]. Unlike Howard, Dalembert has never fronted a great defense, and his block and rebounding stats belie his impact.

Table: goaltending leaders, 1997-2015, min: 1000 MP (source: stats.NBA.com)

Summary

Dallas had a fine season for 2015, but they’ve lost a few of their pieces and couldn’t reel in a star in his prime. The west is so competitive that they’ll need Wesley Matthews to fully recover so they can try to kill teams with tons of shooting, passing, and defense that’s just good enough to get by. But the smart move is taking the conservative route, and Dallas will probably be squeezed out of the post-season with a decent veteran team that deserves more.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 40

PT-PM: 40

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 39

Nathan Walker: 38