2015-16 NBA Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Memphis made few changes, and they’re sticking with the grit-and-grind style that’s worked well for them. But given the age of their core players, they’re due for a slow descent. Last season, Marc Gasol defied his age and substantially increased his shot usage. The Grizzlies will need more of that in an ultra-competitive west where a season that’s simply “good” isn’t good enough for the playoffs.

2015 in review:

Much like the Rockets, Memphis outscored its opponents at the level of an team expecting 50 wins but won more games in reality: 55, tied for fourth in the league. It was another season defined by their defense. They had their best offense in years, but it was still roughly league average and they were one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially with key personnel on the floor. The Grizzlies were lucky that they drew a damaged Portland team in the first round instead of, say, the Spurs; and then unfortunately the Grizlies suffered injuries of their own, as Mike Conley broke his face in the Portland series and Tony Allen was dealing with a hamstring issue. The Warriors defeated them, but they probably would have won anyway, as they were much better during the regular season and outscored Memphis by eight points per game on average during the series.

Rotation players in: Matt Barnes, Brandan Wright.

Rotation players out: Kosta Koufos, Nick Calathes.

The Grizzlies are more or less intact. They’ve replaced backup center Kosta Koufos with Brandan Wright, which is also like swapping a little bit of defense for offense and could pay dividends because if used correctly Wright is an extremely efficient player. Matt Barnes will be adding wing depth and defense. His per game averages are supbar, but he was part of some of the best lineups in the league. Nick Calathes was not considered highly as a role player, but his defensive stats were stealthily great — he had one of the highest steal rates in the league and Memphis defended at its best with him on the court.

2016 Projected

Most statistical projections have the Grizzlies winning around 50 games, which is fine but nothing special in the west. With the ages of Zach Randolph, Gasol, and Tony Allen, as well as role players Barnes and Vince Carter, how an age curve is implemented is crucial for their rating. Their three aforementioned important players are long in the tooth, but their production hasn’t fallen much recently, so will that trend continue or will they hit a wall soon? It’s a question that’s tough to answer because the data is so specific — there is only one Zach Randolph in this universe, and we don’t know what his future holds.

Marc Gasol is a player who should age well because he’s skill based and very large without a nasty history of injuries. He doesn’t even need to jump to hit outside shots. What’s interesting, however, is that Memphis defended better when he was off the court by a huge margin. Kosta Koufos according to their numbers was a substantially better defender. One should never fully trust raw plus/minus numbers, but that’s a red flag. He won over the advanced stats crowd when he was Defensive Player of the Year, but since then he’s been disappointing. He’s not a great rebounder, his blocked shot rate isn’t special, his rim protection numbers were lukewarm for a center last season, and he doesn’t generate a lot of turnovers, so perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising. Yet there’s a lot more to defense than those stats, and an extensive discussion is needed to find the reasons why the Grizzlies have been doing well without him and what his value really is.

Another player with defensive question marks is Mike Conley. Normally when players increase their burden on offense by a large amount their defense will suffer — a law of energy conservation. He’s not a liability at all, of course, but he’s not as focused as other all-D guards, and Memphis does just fine without him. He is, however, a very good playmaker for them and a capable scorer too, useful for a team with so few creators.

Tony Allen, meanwhile, is still the face of their defense. The Grizzlies overall were not a juggernaut on that end of the court except when he played. It’s rare that even box-score measures (b-ref’s BPM) see a perimeter player as the best defender. His ability to hound star players and pick up on a ton of steals is absolutely elite.

Since Gasol increased his scoring load, Zach Randolph did not lead the team in scoring, but he had a fine season, defending competently while his shooting percentages recovered. There’s just no way he can keep playing like this for too long. He already struggles to get off the floor and he’s not overly tall or long. Plus, his low efficiency scoring with few other benefits is already providing less value than most think, and when he slips it could get ugly. Players of his type rarely play well in their late 30’s.

For the team to maximize its existing talent, the small forward slot is actually quite important. Jeff Green is an anti-analytics player. Years ago, Kevin Durant and friends were under-performing, and it was embarrassing for a team with all the young talent they had. Then they traded Green for Kendrick Perkins and immediately got better, aided somewhat by Ibaka being unleashed after being behind Green in the depth chart. Green then had a few tumultuous seasons in Boston with little success, and advanced plus/minus models saw him as a liability. That’s still happening in Memphis. Matt Barnes is the opposite, as the Clippers killed other teams when he was on the court, and if age (or his urge to crash parties) doesn’t defeat him, he’d be a better option on the court. The minutes balance between Green and Barnes will be vital to their success.

Quick statistic/graph

Memphis is not known for its efficient scoring, so Brandan Wright is the correct prescription. Over the past three seasons, only LeBron James has converted a higher percentage of his shots at the rim. In fact, most players on the table below are stars along with a few goofy/athletic players. It’s a stat indicative of elite physical skill, hand-eye coordination, and an ability to get a clear lane to the rim. Wright’s ability to roll to the rim or score on garbage shots makes him a dangerous offensive player and one other teams have to track.

Table: field-goal% leaders within 5 feet of the rim, 2013-15 (source: stats.NBA.com)

Summary

The combination of Conley and Gasol will be a solid core for a while too, and Tony Allen and Randolph are still chugging along. The team could still be a lot better, however, since they’re regularly one of the worst three-point shooting teams and they devote a lot of minutes to Jeff Green and a few non-contributors. Memphis is getting as old as the Appalachian mountains, and eventually the team will wither into dust. But for now, they should still be a good enough team to make the playoffs, as long as injuries don’t devastate the team.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 47.1

PT-PM: 50

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 52

Nathan Walker: 48