2015-16 NBA Preview: Denver Nuggets

DENVER NUGGETS

The Nuggets are now fully divested from win-now mode, having traded away their best player to make room for a 19 year-old draft pick. The team has been remarkably consistent for the past dozen seasons, but last season was poor and this one could get ugly. Yet they’ve already got some young talent on the roster and they’ll probably be one of the more entertaining bad teams in the league.

2015 in review:

Even before Denver started selling off parts of the roster to playoff teams, they were not doing well. Before Timofey Mozgov was dealt to Cleveland, they were getting outscored by 1.8 points per game. Immediately after that deal, they hit rock bottom, going 5-13 with negative 6.5 point differential. The rest of the season was only a little better, but the damage was already done. Their defense was well below average with the major weakness being free throws allowed. But there was an odd pattern to their shot defense numbers: they were okay with shots at the rim or behind the arc, but they allowed one of the highest opponent field goal percentages on shots from 3 feet to the arc. With lumbering big men like Mozgov and Jusuf Nurkic, it makes sense they’d do better near the rim, but it’ll be interesting to see how their defensive stats change this season and if they can improve on their midrange troubles.

Rotation players in: Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic.

Rotation players out: Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Timofey Mozgov.

Mudiay was an elite prospect in high school before he played in China and got injured. He has some of the raw skills to become a star, but his shooting is horrible. Jokic was a draft-and-stash Euro from a year ago, and draft models love him. Those two players actually have already played together at the Nike hoop summit. Losing Ty Lawson will hurt the team immediately, but he’s not in their long-term plans especially after his off-court problems. Arron Afflalo was traded midseason, and there’s still a bit of a hole at shooting guard. Expect Mudiay to log a few minutes there next to someone like Jameer Nelson. Finally, Mozgov provided solid production, and now he’ll be gone for an entire season to make way for their young big men.

2016 Projected

No surprise — it’s likely this team isn’t going to be any good. But they already have a few young, intriguing pieces. Starting with a recent headliner, Emmanuel Mudiay has flashes of stardom and competed in a professional basketball league right out of college, assisting on an impressive number of field goals, but his shot is potentially Rondo-level bad. Combining his stats from China, summer league, and pre-season, he shot 60.8% from the free throw line and 30.9% from behind the arc. He’s so young that panic isn’t necessary, but a low FT% is a glaring red flag. On the plus size, he’s big enough for a shooting guard and can already play the role of a facilitator.

At center, the Nuggets will have second year player and Bosnian superhero Jusuf Nurkic. He’s a bully in the low block on both ends of the court and is still very young — plus, he’ll never get heckled because fans fear his seven-foot, 400 lb father, who works as a police officer in Bosnia and has hands like pineapples[4. Nurkic’s recruiting story is one of the more bizarre ones I’ve ever read, starting with his father reportedly beating up 14 people at once.]. He’s a monstrous rebounder, and two of his biggest weaknesses, being foul- and turnover-prone, usually clear up with experience. His rim protection numbers were good and his RPM was well above average, higher than that of Rudy Gobert or Dwight Howard — that’s a great sign.

Joining him in the frontcourt, Nikola Jokic is a complementary piece as a big man known for his shooting prowess. He has an amazing feel for shots inside too, and he finished pre-season with a FG% of 73.3, playing well overall. He has three-point range too, though he still needs work there. He should be a production player right away, but defense is still a concern.

Kenneth Faried, of course, will be starting, but it’ll be interesting to see, even though he signed a long-term contract last year, how he fits into Denver’s future goals and who his suitors will be. He’s a player for another era, gobbling up boards on both ends of the court, racing upcourt, providing little defense, and lacking range. Wilson Chandler doesn’t fit well either — he’s a useful 3/D-type wing who should be shipped to a contender for an asset.

Denver’s best player this season could be Danilo Gallinari, who’s been struggling with injuries for a while but has seen value when healthy as a scorer. Given his high Morey index (drawing fouls and taking three’s)[5. The Chicago preview has a section on the stat near the bottom of the page.], he’s almost a guaranteed efficient scorer. His age is at a tipping point where he could be a part of the team’s future but he’s old enough that it would make sense to sell him to a contender for parts.

Besides the aforementioned players, Denver has little else, hence the low win total. Will Barton is a fun fastbreak player who’s in the right place, and Nick Johnson is still young. But a few guys, like Randy Foye and J.J. Hickson, are clearly net negatives. Finally, Jameer Nelson is there as a backup point guard and presumably as an influence for Mudiay.

Quick statistic/graph

The taller Emmanuel Mudiay has some big shoes to fill — Ty Lawson is one of the quickest players in the league and last season lit teams up by driving inside. It wasn’t just scoring, however, as he had the highest assist rate in the league coming off drives to the basket. In the table below, he has a sizable lead over everyone. In fact, ignoring Ish Smith, who played only 831 minutes for the fringe NBA offense in Philadelphia, and Lawson’s lead was gigantic, not too far from doubling up the next player on the list, Jeremy Lin[6. Lin actually had the highest ratio of assists to passes on drives, which should be useful for Charlotte’s stagnant offense.]. Lawson didn’t have a high turnover rate either. He just drove frequently and passes often with good results. Denver’s offense will miss his powers there, but that shouldn’t be a goal-post for Mudiay’s value — Lawson out-assisted every NBA player.

Table: SportVU assist stats from drives, min. 200 drives, 2015 (source: stats.NBA.com)

Summary

The Nuggets picked an ideal time to completely rebuild because the Western superpowers are about to wipe each other out and leave nothing but a wasteland. Denver will remain safe tucked deep within the Rockies, and in a few years they could have a great team — “could” should be emphasized because a rebuilding project is no guarantee, like trying to estimate an exact cost before a large construction project breaks ground. But they have a few interesting young players from a wide variety of countries, and their breakneck style will be pleasing to watch.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 28.3

PT-PM: 27

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 31

Nathan Walker: 27