2015-16 NBA Preview: Orlando Magic

ORLANDO MAGIC

When Dwight Howard left Orlando, it was understood that it was best for both parties because the Magic had reached their ceiling with Howard as the foundation. Many fans rejoiced at his absence because of the circus surrounding him, but years later Orlando is still fishing in the lottery for its next star and a vast expanse exists between the team now and where they were when they reached the Finals. A rebuild is a slow, often dangerous process, and patience is required to control one’s sanity. Best case scenario, they draft the next Dwight Howard and keep him for years. That kind of perspective should convince any fan to appreciate Howard, despite all his warts, because title contender status is a rare thing to have.

2015 in review:

The team was in the development stage again, sinking deep into the lottery and giving opportunities to many young players. It was a year entirely for experience. The team did not score efficiently, and it didn’t defend either – hence the 25 wins. However, they were a good defensive rebounding team and created a few turnovers too; they just didn’t defend shots well. On offense, they turned the ball over too frequently and somehow near last in rebounding, which is odd considering their personnel. If the Magic weren’t one of the worst at drawing and hitting free throws in recent history, they would have been efficient at shooting. Their guards, like Victor Oladipo, were poor at picking up free throws even with all their athleticism. It’s no surprise Channing Frye doesn’t draw fouls, but Nikola Vucevic was disappointing in this regard considering his usage and where on the floor he plays. Some semblance of a core emerged during the season, but they have a long road ahead to winning basketball.

Rotation players in: Mario Hezonja, Jason Smith, C.J. Watson.

Rotation players out: Willie Green, Kyle O’Quinn.

The Magic made surprisingly few changes for a rebuilding team, bringing in Croatian shooting guard Mario Hezonja. He’s essentially the J.R. Smith of eastern Europe, launching outside shots and driving hard for dunks inside with the kind of arrogance to say things like, in a response to a question about whether or not he’ll watch Messi play in Barcelona, “Let Messi come to see me.” He’ll replace Willie Green’s minutes, most likely, who was merely a filler at shooting guard. The Magic also swapped the underrated Kyle O’Quinn for Jason Smith, letting a good defender go for a pick and pop big man who can’t do much else. Finally, C.J. Watson will be a useful backup point guard because he’s a decent shooter, which is a need for the team in the backcourt.

2016 Projected

For a team that needs a boost for their rebuilding process, Scott Skiles is an apt coach. Famously, teams usually perform leagues better on defense right away when he takes control, and Orlando has a lot of defensive potential. Oladipo has been consistently compared to Dwyane Wade, as Oladipo is a long-armed, athletic guard who picks up steals at a healthy rate. He is by no means a great defender yet, but he still has the potential. Elfrid Payton, however, has already shown a defensive acumen that’s rare for young rookies. He’ll hound opposing guards, pressuring like other pests (e.g. Patrick Beverley or Avery Bradley) Then there’s Aaron Gordon, the young forward with a body like Blake Griffin and great defensive potential. Skiles has the right material for an excellent defense in a short time.

Tobias Harris is the likely power forward – though he and Gordon are basically interchangeable as forwards – and while he’s no game-changer he’s a decent enough defender for a starting unit. The weak link is Vucevic. As their leading scorer and rebounder, he’s a part of the future of the team. But with a few good defenders, a good coach, and a smart scheme, a defender like Vucevic can reasonably be hidden by keeping him close to the basket, dropping back on pick-and-rolls. He’s a great rebounder too, which draws parallels with Al Jefferson in Charlotte – he can play to his strengths and stay near the rim.

Elsewhere, Frye isn’t a liability when healthy, but he’s a prototypical soft jump shooter. Dwayne Dedmon, a center, is their best defensive player in the frontcourt, and he’s one of the more under-appreciated players in the league. He’s the team’s best shot-blocker by far, aided by a 7’ 4” wingspan, and the Magic defended at an elite level when he was on the court, allowing 101.2 points per 100 possessions versus an awful 109.7 points when he was off the court, per basketball-reference. Given his minutes load, that’s a noisy figure that probably won’t hold up for another season, but he’s a player to keep tabs on defensively.

Orlando’s other players are either soft defenders or near average. Mario Henzoja, for example, has had some issues with focus and gambling on defense. But Super Mario is needed on offense because this team has structural problems there. Elfrid Payton is a future all-defense player, but he’s one of the worst shooters at point guards in recent history. Rajon Rondo’s name is brought up as a comparison for a reason, and it’s not an exaggeration: he shot 55% in the NBA from the free throw line and 26% from behind the arc; those numbers were 61% and 27%, respectively, during his three years of college. Since his rookie season has only just passed, we’re still in the honeymoon phase with him but pretty soon he’s going to receive a large chunk of criticism. It’s just too tough building around a guard whose shooting is so terrible the other team can effectively play 5-on-4 whenever the ball isn’t in his hands or even when he’s on the perimeter.

Oladipo made progress on his outside shot, but he’s not an ideal partner for Elfrid. Thankfully, Hezonja, Evan Fournier, and Watson are all capable shooters. Frye was supposed to be an elixir for their spacing problems, but if the ball-handler is a terrible shooter it’s much easier to defend him. Frye’s skills are magnified with a guard who can shoot too, like the synergy he had with Goran Dragic in Phoenix. Gordon has shooting problems too, sadly, and it’ll be intriguing to see how Skiles juggles the pieces and select appropriate lineups that mesh well together. There’s already a potential great partnership in Henzonja and Gordon, and they have the type of aggressive, rim-attacking style Orlando lacked in 2015. The puzzle is starting to assemble in Orlando, and the organization will have to decide which pieces they actually need.

Quick statistic/graph

After a down season in Orlando, Channing Frye was written off. But this is recency bias because a cursory glance at his career reveals a strangely consistent pattern: he alternates between good and poor seasons, improving one year only to fall the next. Looking at basketball-reference’s BPM, a zig-zag pattern holds for his entire career. If anyone alternates so strongly, it’d likely be a jump shooter like Frye since outside shooting percentages are notoriously unstable. Actually, most of his component stats do not exhibit this polarized behavior; it’s mostly limited to his shooting. The question, of course, is whether or not this pattern will continue through this season. It’s probably unwise to assume another poor season, but if the pattern continues it’d just be, frankly, too strange to be reality. There are a few red flags, though: Frye’s outside shooting percentage didn’t sink; his other stats, like usage and turnovers, got worse, which could indicate that he is truly declining.

Summary

The Magic have breakout potential due to their young talent and the coach they have orchestrating everything. It’s an unorthodox team with its best defensive player at point guard and its leading scorer at center. It’ll take some ingenuity to work around some of their shooting issues too. They still don’t have their superstar they can anchor the team around, and as years pass hopefully fans appreciate Dwight Howard, for all his flaws, more than he is now. Orlando should be better this season, but it’ll all depend on how fast they develop and many systems don’t agree, like mine, for instance — we still have a lot to learn.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 35.2

PT-PM: 27

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 29

Nathan Walker: 33