2015-16 NBA Preview: San Antonio Spurs

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

The Spurs will be the Spurs until the heat death of the universe, but they just made their biggest transaction since they were in the ABA and stole a young George Gervin from a Virginia team hemorrhaging money[8. I won’t count any moves that, for example, involved a draft pick becoming a star.]. Bringing in LaMarcus Aldridge is a splashy move for the organization, and with Kawhi Leonard’s development, it signals the beginning of a new era in San Antonio.

2015 in review:

San Antonio got off to an okay start and then hit a slump in December before picking it up near the all-star break, peaking with an eleven game win streak[7. It’s not a coincidence this lines up with Kawhi Leonard’s games played.]. Tim Duncan was excellent despite zeroing in on 40, Kawhi “The Claw” Leonard[8. San Antonio has the Claw, the Iceman, the Admiral, and … the Big Fundamental. Their greatest players have superhero names except for Tim Duncan, who would probably just use his own name for crime-fighting along with the proper permits and documentation for the city.] won Defensive Player of the Year, they got great production off their bench, and they finished the season with the third best point differential. Unfortunately, this is the West, and they didn’t even get homecourt advantage and drew the Clippers in the first round, losing in an epic series where the last two games were decided by a total of eight points.

Rotation players in: LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Boban Marjanovic.

Rotation players out: Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli, Cory Joseph, Aron Baynes.

The Spurs are bringing in two power forwards who have been multiple time all-stars to boost the frontcourt. Aldridge is presumably the heir to the Duncan dynasty now. They’re also bringing in Boban Marjanovic, a 7′ 3″ Serbian giant who is drawing positive marks and will add needed depth at center. He has a deft touch around the rim and even when passing, and he’s a monster on the offensive glass. Losing Tiago Splitter, however, will hurt. He was a fine defender and a great finisher. Cory Joseph was a capable backup, but Patty Mills was recovering from an injury last year and should be more available this season. Marco Belinelli and Aron Baynes were the other victims of the Aldridge signing. They lost all four players while receiving very little in return.

2016 Projected

The Spurs usually make small changes, so the discussion centers mainly on one player: LaMarcus Aldridge. To defeat one argument early, he does indeed take an obscene number of midrange jumpers, taking more than the entire Rockets team and half as many as a few other teams, but he was still an offensive centerpiece to some of the best recent offenses.

Portland was better on both offense and defense with LaMarcus Aldridge on the court. Even if you control for three of their best offensive players being on the court, as shown in the table below, the effect is still true. The team often went with smaller units without the big man, so their defense usually suffered the most, but he helped them reach a higher level by drawing attention, noted by their highest 3PT% when he played.

Table: Portland with Lillard, Batum, and Matthews (source: NBAWOWY.com)

Both Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge prefer the same area on the court, leading one to believe fit could be an issue. But they’re intelligent players and underrated players with range, and Aldridge was already experimenting with a three-point shot last season. Aldridge is also used to a 3PT-heavy offense with a high usage guard, and he’ll certainly draw more attention outside than Diaw and Splitter. Plus, the Spurs rest their guys aggressively throughout the season, and they can stagger their minutes during games so one is on the court without the other.

However, there’s one issue that can’t be circumvented, and it’s basic mathematics: there are a finite number of shots available, and someone’s going to have to take fewer attempts. One can make a usage adjustment based on projected minutes, and it can lower the team’s rating enough to take off a couple wins. Many players derive most of their value from their scoring and ballhandling, and since there’s only one ball when scorers are added there are usually diminishing returns.

I’m more skeptical of the immediate benefits of LaMarcus Aldridge than many, but he’s going to help him, and long-term he’s a successor for an older team. Age could actually be their downfall, not fitting Aldridge. Bringing this up makes one feel like the boy who cried wolf, but at some point Duncan will break down, and Tony Parker has already fallen off considerably while Manu has one foot into retirement. Perhaps my age curve, and age curves from other projections, are too aggressive with the Spurs, but it’s a real concern.

Since the team let a few bench players go and sold Splitter for next to nothing, the bench isn’t as ridiculously deep as it has been. Patty Mills, when healthy, is one of the best sixth men scorers, and San Antonio will need him to be performing at his peak. David West and Boris “Bobo” Diaw should be solid contributors who bring skill and some defensive utility, but, of course, both are in their mid-30’s. Manu Ginobili will provide some backup ballhandling wizardry to the team, but the team can’t count on heavy minutes from him. Kyle Anderson might be a lot better this season, as he was loved by advanced models in college, and the team could use his slow-motion scoring. That’s still a fully stocked bench, but given coach Gregg Popovich’s tendencies to rest players they’re probably short a perimeter shooter and a dependable center.

Quick statistic/graph

Danny Green was drinking the kool-aid and bought into the San Antonio cult philosophy, so he was okay with signing a contract for $10 million a year when similar players were getting $14 to $17.5 million. He’s one of the most valuable role players in the league though with exquisite shooting while running his defenders in circles around the court with all-team worthy defense. He’s a killer on transition defense with a knack for timing. There were few shooting guards in the history of the league who blocked as many shots as he did per possession, and the players who have equaled him are impressive. Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade were and are known for their shot-blocking prowess relative to their position and size, but Danny Green is right there with them.

Table: per possession shooting guard block leaders (source: b-ref)

Summary

The Spurs have a bridge to the future with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, but they’ll have a tough time battling the other western conference elite teams. The latter was signed in free agency, but they still lost a few players in the process, notably the valuable Tiago Splitter. But it’s unwise to bet against the Spurs, and they’ll probably, again, go against the general trends and defeat age and find another diamond in the rough player to assert their dominance over the rest of the NBA. Aldridge’s scoring will decrease, but the Spurs will remain the same.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 52.0

PT-PM: 59

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 59

Nathan Walker: 55