2015-16 NBA Preview: Golden State Warriors

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

All hail smallball! The Warriors won a title with what was essentially an alternate version of the Mike D’Antoni-era Suns with major defensive upgrades. Since their dominance was si unexpected, there remains some skepticism, but a closer examination reveals what’s, indeed, a great team with a handful of very good players with complementary skills. A repeat title isn’t out of the question, and for a franchise with such a disquieting history that fact should be reassuring for every aimless franchise out there.

2015 in review:

The Warriors were seen as just another playoff team coming into the season; few people had any idea about what lay waiting. Few people frame it this way, but the team got lucky when a David Lee injury revealed a much more valuable Draymond Green thrust into the starting lineup[4. Plus/minus models, by the way, and simple on-off analysis, loved Draymond Green and a few people openly argued for him starting over the recent All-Star.].

Rotation players in: Jason Thompson.

Rotation players out: David Lee.

The Warriors made few changes, which is understandable. The only significant one, besides losing Alvin Gentry as an assistant, is the relatively straightforward swap of David Lee and Jason Thompson. As weird as it sounds now, Lee was an All-Star selection in 2013 over Stephen Curry, but his defensive issues don’t fit mesh well with the team overall. Most Warriors’ lineups actually performed better without him. Jason Thompson was in Sacramento for a strangely long time given their annual makeovers. He’s got the height and length for a center but has played power forward for a large portion of his career. He’s a decent pick-and-pop weapon and not a liability on defense. Besides that, he’s not much else than an extra big man.

2016 Projected

When looking at projections, the first thing to understand is that people aren’t necessarily saying the Warriors are worse now; it’s just that the best predictions involve a lot of regression to the mean and they were so good last season there’s a lot of room below that performance level. First of all, a number of their players had better seasons than previously expected, and normal aging curves don’t quite explain the gap based on average growth rates. Basically, if a guy in his mid-20’s suddenly goes from above average starter for two or three years in a row to being in the All-Star conversation, you don’t expect him to get even better the next season. One perhaps should expect him to fall off a little based on that overall history of performance. Something similar is expected with Jimmy Butler but to a larger degree.

Draymond Green improved too, but not by as much as people think — check out how his basic defensive stats, steals and blocks, were slightly better in 2014 and his on/off numbers were stellar just as they were this season. The issue with my numbers, however, and probably other models, is that his rookie season was a lot worse, so he’s expected to regress a bit. But where he could really make progress and become better is with a more accurate shooting touch. As silly as it sounds now, scouting reports during the draft lauded his shooting but stated he had defensive question marks that kept him out of the lottery.

No player is immune here. Even Stephen Curry is projected to regress somewhat. This is simply a product of reaching an incredibly high level of performance; it is unlikely for most players to remain that good without a long track record, a Michael Jordan or LeBron James playing like an MVP year after year. But with his skillset, it’s more likely than for most that Curry remains this good or perhaps even improves. Comparisons based on similar players are difficult because there really aren’t any. There’s a temptation to say Steve Nash, but Curry is more of a scorer and a better defender. FiveThirtyEight’s comparisons are entertaining and illustrate this point: Chris Paul, Terrell Brandon, Ray Allen, Michael Jordan, and Deron Williams[4. Andrew Bogut’s first comparison is sobering: Bill Walton.].

If there’s one potential dark cloud on the horizon, it’s injuries, most likely from their two valuable veterans Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala. Bogut in particular is a massive injury risk and usually has trouble clearing 1500 minutes played for a season. If he goes, it’s a major dent to their defense and they’ll have to rely on smaller lineups for large stretches, which is something they probably want to save for the playoffs, or on players like Marreese Speights or Jason Thompson. Iguodala’s heading into his mid-30’s and as an athletic wing player with poor outside shooting, he could age quickly. But he consistently keeps himself in great shape and will remain well-rested on the bench.

As long as the team is healthy, they should absolutely be a elite with a high probability of a title. This is a good time to mention how advanced stats were on the leading edge here and saw the team as better than they were perceived. With their reliance on three-point shooting, smallball, and a torrid pace, they were truly a 21st century team. They won shooting jump shots — sorry, Charles Barkley — and their fast-break offense did not prevent them from playoff success. We need to celebrate this while they still have the championship belt. They won with an entertaining style and a philosophy that directly opposes an outdated model of basketball best suited for a nostalgic recreation of the 80’s and 90’s.

Quick statistic/graph

The Warriors nearly captured the imaginary triple crown of team possessions: they were second in points per possession, first in points allowed per possession, and first in possessions per game (i.e. pace.) This hasn’t happened since the 70’s, but it actually used to be more common. The Russell-led Celtics, especially when Bob Cousy was point guard, pushed the pace with ferocity while defending like no other team of the era. Surprisingly, one of the other qualifying teams was a Laker team with Jerry West and an old Wilt Chamberlain[4. They were tied for first in defensive rating with the Bucks.].

Table: Teams who ranked first in pace and defensive rating (source: b-ref)

Summary

As the youngest champion in decades with an intact roster, the Warriors will be sensational again unless a large object pins and traps one of their key players for a few months. They didn’t get worse, but it’s unlikely they’ll win 67 games again simply because it’s so rare. But given their pedigree, what matters is how they do in the post-season and if they can repeat as champions. They should have the best chance out of any team in the west.

PBP-Metric[1. This is the initial version of my own metric, which uses a full range of stats collected from play-by-play logs and tested extensively to avoid overfitting.]: 57.3

PT-PM: 66

Nick‘s[2. For a short description, the predictions use regression models and neural networks to apply various stats like BPM, RAPM, and Win Shares to 10,000 simulations of the season game-by-game to select the “best” result.]: 60

Nathan Walker: 64