Three-Point Shooters in Historical Context

Basketball is constantly morphing and taking the shape of the latest trends and efficiencies that provide franchises the best chances to win. In some ways, this makes cross-generation statistical comparisons much more difficult. Following on last year’s MVP and Championship, a common point of discussion has been whether Stephen Curry is the “best shooter” of all time. It’s hard to argue against, given the defense-breaking uniqueness of his ability off the bounce. However, dismissing other possibilities too quickly might ignore differences eras and strategy that don’t allow others to shine as the present day of pace, space and three point bombing does Curry.

Any list of “great shooters” of the modern era would have to include Larry Bird, Reggie Miller and Ray Allen along with Curry. The simplest comparison could be made simply by looking at their individual numbers. That doesn’t account for much in the way of league context. How about comparing them relative to the rest of the league during their respective times? The average 3PM per team gives some idea as to the landscape of the league in that year as far as volume of threes[1. Comparing to the league average also weeds out the spikes caused by the shortened line for three years in the 90s.].

Sure, Curry’s 2014-2015 season was impressive and his shooting is sublime, but on some level isn’t it equally or more impressive that Bird made almost 77% the number of 3-pointers an average team made in 1986-1987? And that wasn’t Bird’s high point as far as percentage relative to the average team. In 1985-1986, he alone accounted 106.5% of the average team total, hitting more threes on his own than 13 of 23 teams.  Curry is better at a skill many others try to exercise within a game, but in context Bird’s long range marksmanship was rather unique as well.

The growth over three point shooting has drastically outpaced that same growth in the league leader over time as teams have gotten smarter about the scoring efficiencies of the 3-point shot and more players are able and willing to shoot from deep. The league leader in 3-pointers made since 1979-1980 has increased by 217%, but over that same period of time, the average team is making 904% more.

Even as[2. Or perhaps because of] the number of threes taken has increased, the degree by which the league leaders have outpaced league average has remained relatively flat. Expressed as a percentage above league average, the gap between the top qualifying mark and average hasn’t expanded or shrunk much since the adoption of the long line in 1979-1980. In that first year, the league leader’s 3FG% was 158.2% of the league average while Kyle Korver last season was at 140.6.

As the NBA continues to use the three as a primary weapon more and more comparing the greatest shooters of this era to those of yesteryear will become even more difficult.