Freelance Friday: Rookie Watch

Freelance Friday is a semi-regular series at The Nylon Calculus where we invite submissions from readers and practitioners in the hope of making basketball analytics more democratic and inclusive. Submissions, questions and comments can be directed to TheNylonCalculus at gmail dot com.This submission is from Joseph Gill, who previously advocated for the Timberwolves to use Zach LaVine more as a shooting guard than to continue the point guard experiment.

Though the 2015-16 season is only two weeks old, it’s not too early to discuss first impressions of the 2015 draft class. This batch of rookies has been particularly strong out of the gate, especially the big men. Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and Kristaps Porzingis have grabbed headlines and generated buzz all around the NBA world, all shining with unexpected levels of NBA readiness.  Justise Winslow is among the leaders in on-floor defensive rating among those who have played more than 25 minutes a night.

So far 10 players from the 2015 draft class have averaged 20 minutes or more a night. Jerian Grant (drafted #19) and TJ McConnell (undrafted) are the only players not selected in the top 10 to be garnering serious playing time early in this season. Traditional point-rebound-assist stats tend to be well-covered, so I wanted to look to more detailed metrics to paint a fuller and and perhaps more accurate picture of the rookie landscape. While the sample size is admittedly small, there are still some intriguing early trends to monitor as the season progresses.

First, it should come as no surprise that Justise Winslow is leading this rookie class in Net Rating early. Winslow was the most fortunate of all the rookies, drafted into a nearly perfect situation on the Miami Heat. He has little pressure to create for himself or others on offense, leaving him free to play to his strengths—driving opposing wing scorers crazy. Justise has the early look of a All-Defense First Team mainstay for years to come. The only question is whether he’ll be able to create on offense when he inevitably has to take over for Dwyane Wade[1. Who missed his first game of the season for family reasons Thursday night.]  or Luol Deng in the starting lineup. That question could be months, or years, away depending on the Heat’s health going forward.

Seeing Jerian Grant 3rd among all rookies in Net Rating however is a big surprise, especially considering the lack of buzz surrounding the 23-year old Notre Dame product. After diving into some more advanced  stats, the reasons start to become clearer. The Knicks are scoring at their highest rate from paint, in transition, and the free throw line at their highest rate when Grant is in the game, more so than any of the Knicks’ other regular rotation players.[2. This is both credit to Grant and his benchmate Langston Galloway and something of indictment of the Knicks’ starting guards Jose Calderon and Sasha Vujacic, though the latter has been replaced by the now-healthy Arron Afflalo.]

Defensively, the Knicks are generating turnovers at their highest rate when Grant on the floor, at a rate of 15.7% with him on the floor versus 11.2% when he sits. Grant himself is scoring 45.2% of his points in the paint, and a further 27.4% from the free throw line. Those are the best shots in basketball, and as long as he continues to generate them, Grant has a good chance to replace Jose Calderon as the starting point guard.

The biggest shock has to be seeing how poorly the 76ers are performing on both sides of the ball with Jahlil Okafor is in the game. This stands in stark contrast to the Kings with Willie Cauley-Stein, whose raw length and athleticism is a natural antithesis to Okafor’s refined interior offense.

In many ways, Okafor versus Cauley-Stein is a microcosm of a larger battle in the Old NBA versus the New NBA. Okafor’s interior scoring is a throwback to the days of Mikan, McHale, and Olajuwon, a time where a talented low-post scorer was seen as the basis to any serious championship run. Cauley-Stein represents the Tyson Chandlers, DeAndre Jordans, and all the future big men whose lack of ball-handling and shooting skills are more than covered by terror-inducing roll to the basket and rim protection fit to serve as a defensive cornerstone.

Cauley-Stein is currently bucking the few remaining arguments against drafting the New Age center in favor of the traditional back-to-the-basketball big man. From day one Cauley-Stein has belied the adage that raw big men won’t help the team win for a least a few years, Cauley-Stein is the only Kings player to have played in all 9 games so far this year and post a positive Net Rating. While his defensive impact hasn’t been as large as expected, he’s still making contributions on that end of the floor as well.

Surprisingly, Cauley-Stein’s biggest impact is actually being made on the offensive end, and not the defensive one that he was so lauded for at Kentucky. A raw big man isn’t supposed to help his team’s offense during their rookie year, but Willie isn’t just helping, he’s been one of their only bright spots on offense so far this season.

Sactown is scoring 108.2/100 possessions highest on the team aside from Seth Curry’s 127.5 in only 25 minutes. While Willie doesn’t have the catalog of moves that Okafor has, the constant threat of a lob to the rim or dump down for a dunk requires a defender on him at all times. While Okafor demands a defense’s attention when he has the basketball, Cauley-Stein requires it when he doesn’t, because if he does get it within 5 feet, finishing is merely a formality (Cauley-Stein is shooting 78.6% on 28 attempts within 5 feet so far this season). What is harder to guard, a guy who prefers to back in his man in the post, or a player that is only a single missed rotation away from an alley-oop at all times? Even if Cauley-Stein’s usage rate of 10.8% is one of the 10 lowest in the league among players who play more than 15 minutes a night, his TS% of 68.7% (top 5 among players who play more than 15 minutes a night) demands a defense’s respect, freeing up his teammates for easier looks.

While most stats are alarming for 76er fans, Okafor’s On/Off splits are downright alarming, and makes the distinction between the two even clearer. It’s worth noting that both teams are a combined 2-15 and their team-wide NRtg’s are within 8 points, so there’s very little difference between the two franchises at the moment:

Here’s the craziest part: The Net Rating of plus 8.1 is the only positive Off rating among any of the 76ers players, and the next two closest Off ratings among players with over 100 minutes logged are Jakarr Sampson’s -0.9 in with 121 minutes played, then Nik Stauskas’ -11.9 with 222 minutes played.

To put it in another wording: The single best thing that the Philadelphia 76ers, a team full of 2nd round and undrafted fliers, can do to win games, is benching Jahlil Okafor. Between the decision to play, or not play, any player on their roster, that is the move that makes them the most points better than their opponent so far this season. In fact, it’s a 30-point swing over the course of 100 possessions. Terrifying for an early prognosis on a player who was considered the most polished in the 2015 draft class.

This isn’t an anomaly derived from substitution patterns either. According to the NBAStatMachine at NBASM.com, Okafor doesn’t play any more in the 4th quarter than any other quarter. The 76ers have only been blown out 3 times this season, and Okafor was on the floor for 36 of the possible 48 minutes of garbage time that those games provided in the 4th quarter. In those 12 minutes of garbage time without Okafor, the 76ers are only a combined +2, so there’s very little statistical skew occurring during those minutes.

Jahlil defense was heavily scrutinized pre-draft, and the early returns are rather surprising. Okafor’s actually doing a good job at protecting the paint, only allowing 47.1% on shots he contests at the rim. However, this is largely the effect of playing alongside noted defensive star Nerlens Noel, as Okafor only allows 41.6 points in the paint per 100 possessions with him, and 56.7 points per 100 possessions without him. With Noel his DRtg is 104.5. Without Nerlens it balloons up to 121.1, a mark that would be the highest in the league by over 5 points among players who play more than 20 minutes a night (his composite mark is already 3rd worst in the league). His defense has been pretty much what was expected when he left Duke—not great, though he has blocked more shots than might have been expected.

So, what’s different for Philadelphia’s offense when Okafor is on the floor, versus the bench? Take a look at team-wide statistics for both situations, ranked out of the 9 Philadelphia players to play 100 or more minutes so far this season:

A few things jump out. First, despite having a much worse ORTG with Jahlil on the floor, there is very little disparity in their TS%. The source of the disparity in ORTH seems to be the amount of turnovers and lack of passing that occurs when Jahlil is on the floor. But is that Okafor’s fault?

It would really appear not, at least not entirely. Though Jahlil leads the 76ers in turnovers with 23, his TO% is only 12.1%, slightly above league average. The problem arises when Philadelphia tries posting Okafor up, which they accomplish by getting him a post touch in 37.6% of the possessions he’s on the court. Despite being a somewhat inefficient option on offense (Okafor is scoring 0.81 points-per-possession in post-up situations, 39.2th percentile among players with at least 10 possession, not nearly high enough to be seeing the volume it is), Okafor is leading the NBA in post-up possessions with 67.

So far Okafor is struggling with the length of opposing bigs, not only when it comes to finishing over them, but also passing around them. Even though he’d only committed one turnover off a pass since his first game against Boston (in which he had 4), his passes haven’t been as accurate or timely as they were against college competition. Worse, his passes are often fired out to semi-open teammates after Jahlil has wasted away much of the shot clock working himself into a poor scoring position. Okafor, who was praised for his ability to pass out of double and triple teams at Duke, has only 10 assists on the year, far too few for a player with a star level usage rate of 29.8%. Okafor certainly has some beautiful post-up moves and counters, but the offense as a whole looks ugly when he’s out there—even more than the average rookie. On an optimistic note, Al Jefferson started out his career with the exact same types of problems, but has worked his TO% all the way down to a miniscule 4.1%.

HIs teammates aren’t blameless in this matter either however. There is far too little cutting and movement when Okafor has his back to the basketball, and Isaiah Canaan the sole 76er shooting above 40% from the outside, there’s only one serious 3-point threat for Jahlil to kick it out to. But, without him, the ball movement flows much better, and while his teammates aren’t necessarily getting better looks, they’re certainly getting more. His teammates on the 76ers aren’t that versatile, but at this stage in his career, neither is Okafor. Noel has already established himself as the defensive anchor to build around. If Jahlil can’t figure out how to adjust, the ever-savvy GM Sam Hinkie could do away with him shortly after he was drafted a la Michael Carter-Williams.

The good news is that Okafor’s only 9 games into his NBA career. But, maybe it’s time to ease off the Kings for allegedly panicking and taking Willie Cauley-Stein at 6. He’s done wonders for the Kings’ offense when he’s on the floor, and, like Okafor, will only stand to improve as he gets more experience under his belt.