Statistical Spotlight: Tyler Johnson could be Miami’s ‘Lucky Charm’

Entering the season, the Miami Heat were one of the most difficult teams to project in the NBA. The 2014/15 campaign was one of transition for the franchise as the banged-up roster under-achieved en route to a 37-45 record and the No. 10 pick in the draft. It was difficult to know how improved the roster might be.

Best-case scenarios painted the Heat as the Eastern Conference’s top challenger to the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2015-16. However, this not only required full seasons of health from a variety of veterans and untested players, but it also relied upon a remade bench. If/when the starters missed games, Miami couldn’t afford a massive drop-off.

Statistical projections were far more critical of Miami. All four of the Nylon Calculus projections had them under .500. FiveThirtyEight pegged them at only 38 wins. The systems obviously were reading last year’s struggles and the age of the team’s main contributors and plotted a continued downswing.

But so far, the bench has been strong enough to withstand one missed Dwayne Wade game, six missed Gerald Green games, and the downgrade from Mario Chalmers-to-Beno Udrih. The team is 6-3 and has won three straight. They look like a legitimate contender in the improved East. While bench forward Josh McRoberts has played well in his return to action and rookie Justise Winslow shines as a statistical plus-minus darling, Tyler Johnson might be the most fascinating storyline for the Heat. And it’s not just about his unabashed love for Lucky Charms cereal.

Johnson’s play most certainly was a key factor in the cap-saving trade of his former backcourt mate Chalmers, who averaged 27.8 minutes per game in his seven-year Heat career. Johnson, who is only 23 years old and was an undrafted free agent out of Fresno State in 2014, turned some heads down the stretch last season for the struggling Heat. He had multiple 20-point games and a pair of impressive rebounding performances, too. He was starting to replace Chalmers in the rotation already.

His athleticism and shooting makes him a very fun player to watch. At only 6-foot-3 and under-190 pounds, he was an odd fit coming into the NBA as a college shooting guard. He dunked all over the 2014 Summer League. He just looked to be very slight of frame and didn’t have typical point guard skills. He mentioned how he couldn’t pass well with his right hand until only recently. But Miami’s trust in him has paid off big time with his rapid development. As you can see in his per-game stats from college to the NBA, his shooting has continued to improve over time.

Johnson can jump out of any gym. His YouTube highlights showcase his impressive leaping ability, especially for his size. He also has a variety of ball fakes and step-backs that help him create separation from defenders. As a lefty point guard, he can be difficult to guard already. BBallBreakdown’s Coach Nick pointed out some of his typical crossover moves.

Defense was not expected to be a strength entering the league because of his lack of strength. Yet, defense has been where Johnson’s presence has been most felt this season. The Heat are tied with the Spurs for the top defensive rating in the league at 93.5, per NBA.com/stats. And the numbers with the bench players have been particularly strong. In the 79 minutes of McRoberts-Winslow-Johnson, Miami has an 83.9 defensive rating and is limiting opponents to 34.8 percent shooting.

The Heat are also bullying teams on the glass with Johnson on the court, grabbing 53.3 percent of available rebounds. That’s perhaps unsurprising given his gaudy collegiate rebounding numbers. That percentage would be a top-five mark in the NBA. This is compared to an even 50 percent of rebounds collected with Johnson on the bench.

Winslow and Johnson also have been a part of Miami’s crunch-time lineups. Along with Chris Bosh, all three are averaging around nine minutes per fourth quarter, by far the most on the team. And Miami has been one of the league’s best in these situations.

For a player his size, Johnson’s 1.5 percent career block percentage is mighty impressive and reminiscent of Dwayne Wade’s career 2.0 percent mark. Obviously, there is a small sample size to all of his NBA statistics so far, but this showcases the upside on the defensive side.

Many argue that the Heat will go as far as center Hassan Whiteside, another young player who fought up from the D-League, will take them. But for me, one of the keys that I’m watching is how the youngsters Winslow and Johnson will fare as the spotlight shines brighter. They’ll need to carry larger roles as rotations tighten and Wade inevitably misses a few more games. We’ll see if their play can continue and the Miami can continue to climb back into relevance in the East.