Warriors’ Ball Movement Reaching New Heights

The Golden State Warriors are still being overlooked. Not in the same preseason “they were lucky” chorus which seems to have given the Dubs all the extra motivation they need to blister the NBA thus far. But in terms of their achievement as a basketball collective, the Warriors teamwork has been nothing short of spectacular.

With good reason, Stephen Curry’s luminous start to the season is understandably getting most of the attention for the Warriors. Other individuals have come in for their own accolades: Draymond Green is playing at an elite level, adding accurate shooting and improved playmaking to his already stellar defense; Festus Ezeli has plugged in for the concussed Andrew Bogut and the team has barely noticed the change, with Ezeli taking Bogut’s usual place among the list of most effective rim protectors in the league and so on.

Looking at the the accomplishments of certain players is missing the forest for the trees, as in many ways, the collective is the story. Whether by allowing the Warriors to become the best defensive team in the league via positional versatility and the attendant option to switch across multiple defensive assignments on any given possession, or the selflessness that allows Bogut (and Andre Iguodala before him) to come off the bench rather than demand reinsertion to the starting lineup, the ability to marry Curry’s transcendance within a larger cooperative framework is what takes them from “exciting and good” to “historically great.”

Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Warriors ability to share the ball offensively, passing up good shots to find teammates for great shots. According to SportVU data, the Warriors are averaging 55.7 potential assists (passes to which lead to a shot for which an assist would be awarded if the shot was made) per game. In the two-plus seasons this stat has been publicly tracked, the highest single season average was the 2014/15 Warriors, who averaged 50.8 Potential Assists per game. Even accounting for Golden State’s rapid pace, this outpaces the highest seasonal Assisted FGA% seen so far. Last year’s Hawks accounted for 60.8% of their FGA through potential assists, while the Warriors are 62.5% heading into Tuesday’s game[1. As the league continues to shoot more and more three pointers, this record might be in jeopardy on a yearly basis, as three pointers are far more frequently assisted than twos.]. That is to say, thus far, the Warriors have dramatically improved on an already historically good performance[2. The top 3 full season Assisted FGA% rates were the 14/15 Hawks, the 13/14 version of Atlanta and last year’s Warriors. On the other side of the ledge, the season’s Pistons sit at just over 41% of their FGA assisted which would be the lowest mark by almost 5% as compared the the 45.7% mark “achieved” by Sacramento in 2013/14. It’s worth noting that Andre Drummond’s offensive rebounding prowess probably skews that number all on it’s own, but it’s still not a great sign for a team hoping to emulate the Van Gundy Magic teams, as the set up play for catch-and-shoot threes has to improve to reach those levels.]

And this extra ball movement matters. Every single team in the league is significantly more efficient on assisted than unassisted shots:

A natural result is the better a team’s ball movement, the better their shooting efficiency:

Though of course the correlation is a bit messy due to individual skill differences between teams. Ball movement is probably less important to a team like Oklahoma City with their two dominant creators alongside a roster not exactly filled with great catch-and-shoot players[1. #FreeAnthonyMorrow.]. Similarly, a shooting deficient team like Boston can try to find open shooters, but lacking in guys who can hit shots, it is simply not as helpful:

So the Warriors and not just flinging the ball around the court, they are moving it with purpose. A primary beneficiary has been Green, who has used the space provided him as Curry’s pick-and-roll partner to become the second most proficient playmaking forward in the league (behind only LeBron James) in the early going.

In the unlikely event Golden State maintains this level of passing for the whole season, they have a chance to become the first team since the 2003/04 Nets to generate assists on over 70 percent of their made field goals (through Saturday’s win over Brooklyn the Warriors are at 69.5 percent.) This is all occurring despite Curry, by far the team leader in shot attempts, having less than half of his shots come via teammate setup. Of course, Curry’s Effective Field Goal Percentage on those self created shots is a lofty 59.6 percent. So the choice faced by opposing defenses is both complicated and unsolvable: either get added to Curry’s highlight film, or allow the unselfish execution of the Warriors’ collective talent and structure to pick the defense apart via passing and movement. Thus far, either poison you pick, the end result is the same.

Team Assisted FG% as well as eFG% on both assisted and unassisted shots are available on the Team Ratings and Statistics page