Failure to Launch: Searching for answers to Houston’s Ty Lawson problem

When the Houston Rockets acquired point guard Ty Lawson back in July, many viewed the move as one that would help cement Houston as a legitimate championship contender. Eleven games into the season, however, the Rockets have been mired in a deep funk, sitting at a paltry 4-7 with a point differential of -85 for the season. Hardly the start anybody in Houston envisioned four months ago.

Things have already gotten so bad that only three weeks into the regular season, the team reportedly held a dreaded players-only meeting Tuesday morning. Amidst the slow start, questions have been swirling as to the root cause. It goes without saying that the Rockets have been plagued by injuries.[1. Versatile big man Donatas Motiejunas has been out since late March with a back injury, while Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones also missed several games in the opening weeks. Meanwhile, backup point guard Patrick Beverley is out indefinitely as of this past Saturday, and rookie forward Sam Dekker is scheduled for back surgery this Friday, which will reportedly cost him three months.] Others have suggested a lack of effort is partially to blame. However, arguably the biggest question looming for the Rockets is that of Lawson. More specifically, how to get their much-ballyhooed offseason acquisition to better mesh with presumptive MVP candidate James Harden. So far, the returns have not been kind.

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While Harden’s struggles are noteworthy, they pale in comparison to Lawson’s, whose efficiency has fallen off a cliff, through an open manhole and into the sewer. By just about every conceivable metric, Lawson has been one of the most actively detrimental players in the NBA so far this season

.[2. An ignominy he shares with teammate Corey Brewer.]

And while Harden’s relative struggles seem to be tied to shot selection,[3. Particularly, a sizable uptick in pull-up 3s, on which he’s shooting under 20%. In fact, his numbers across the board are actually relatively identical to last year’s with the notable exception of an increase in pull-up 3s. That’s literally it. Everything else is the same, except the pull-up 3s. James, if you are reading this, stop shooting so many pull-up 3s.] the issue with Lawson may have more to do with the way Coach Kevin McHale has been utilizing him — which means it’s unlikely to just get better on its own.

At surface level, the problem is pretty easy to understand. James Harden is one of the most effective iso scorers in the NBA. The Rockets’ most efficient option is to put the ball in Harden’s hands and allow him to operate. However, the bulk of Lawson’s value stems from his ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands. Lawson is well above average as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, as well as in isolation sets — but he’s average at best when it comes to knocking down shots as a spot-up gunner. There’s only one ball, and by allowing their best player to do what he does best, the Rockets are limiting the impact their waterbug point guard is able to have on the offensive end.

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Surprise, surprise. The numbers bear that out. According to data collected by SportVU, Harden has actually been driving slightly more often this season than he did last year, and he’s been more effective to boot. On the flip side, Lawson has seen his number of drives per game reduced by 25% from last year, and his shooting percentage on drives has swooned as well. Perhaps even more troubling, Lawson is also attacking the rim far less on drives. Whereas last year, 41.2% of Lawson’s drives resulted in a shot attempt or foul, that number is only 30.6% this year. And considering Lawson’s assist and turnover rates on drives are almost the same as last year’s, it’s not as though Lawson has been using those other drives to make plays in the passing game either. They have just been aborted drives.

The Rockets are already seeing diminishing returns just by putting Harden and Lawson on the floor together, and it’s even more troubling if this pairing is having an impact on Lawson’s efficiency when it comes to his bread-and-butter. Furthermore, neither Lawson nor Harden could be described as a “plus” defender, so if things aren’t working on the offensive end, it becomes difficult to justify the pairing knowing what’s being given up on the defensive end.[4. The Lawson/Harden pairing has a Defensive Rating of 111 so far, which isn’t far off from the rest of the team. But it’s worth noting that last year, the tandem of Beverley/Harden managed to hold down a Defensive Rating of 105. Plus, we have six years’ worth of data that suggests that putting the two of them together on defense is going to make life difficult for Houston.]

Ultimately, it would seem to make sense that Houston would be better off splitting up Harden and Lawson far more than they have been. Getting Lawson away from Harden’s ball dominance would hopefully enable him to act as a conduit for the second-team offense, while plugging in a guy like Patrick Beverley (once he returns) back into Lawson’s spot would not only give Houston better defensive coverage alongside a defensive liability in Harden, but Beverley has also historically been a better spot-up 3-point shooter than Lawson

,[5. About 38% for Beverley vs. 35% for Lawson.] enabling the Rockets to make better use of Harden’s drive-and-kick capabilities.

However, there is one caveat to this entire argument. Lawson and Harden haven’t been a lost cause in all lineup configurations. In fact, Houston’s small ball lineups — predominantly featuring Lawson, Harden, Marcus Thornton, Trevor Ariza and any one of Houston’s plethora of big men — have been demonstrably productive. The problem is that virtually anytime the Rockets have tried slotting the Lawson/Harden tandem into a more traditional look with two bigs patrolling the paint, it has yielded a net negative.[6. The lone exception is Lawson/Harden/Ariza/Jones/Howard, which is currently outscoring opponents 56-55 through 50 possessions. To give you an idea of how precarious the balance has been, swap out any player other than Lawson or Harden and the lineup’s net rating plummets below -20.] Having a healthy Donatas Motiejunas back may help make a dual-big lineup more palatable, as his shooting ability should help space out the floor for Harden and Lawson to slash to their hearts’ content. In the meantime, it would help if Terrence Jones would start knocking down a shot or two to approximate the same type of effect.

Regardless, it’s clear that the Rockets need to try to shake things up. By keeping Ty Lawson away from James Harden outside of small ball lineups, they may finally be able to achieve some liftoff.