Draymond and the Dish

Passing and playmaking has always been a huge part of Draymond Green’s basketball DNA. During his time at Michigan State, Green was one of the Spartan’s top two in assists per game in each of his Junior and Senior season. Sparty found comfort in running their offense through Green, often out of the high post, due to the scarcity of experienced point guards on the roster and the dependability of his vision and decision making. It’s not too often that a player seeing a majority of his minutes at power forward and center generates both assist and defensive rebounding rates in the Top 100 nationally, as Green did in 2010-2011 according to KenPom.com.

Although his overall abilities shone through last season, during this campaign, Green’s passing ability can be evidenced with his significant early season jump in raw assists. Through 12 games, Green is averaging 6.9 assists per game, a far cry from the 3.7 he accumulated last season, and one of the main reasons for the Warriors’ near-historic levels of offensive teamwork. That’s a startling improvement, and worth examining the reasons behind the jump.

One reason is that Green has the ball in his hands more often. According to NBA.com SportVU data, Green’s touches per game have risen from 65.1 last season to 80.7 this season while his field goal attempts per game have only increased by 0.1 thus allowing more opportunities for assists. As a result, Green has had the ball for 6% of his floor time this year as opposed to 5% last season[5. This would put him at 10th in the NBA among full time bigs in terms of Time of Possession%.]

An even bigger reason is that he plays on the same team as Stephen Curry. Throw the ball anywhere near Curry this season and there’s a high degree of likelihood that shot is going up and in. Green’s pass frequency to Curry has only gone up 3.5% but because of his increased touches, the number of passes per game to Curry has jumped by 8.4.

In terms of shot success, Curry actually shot below his season averages last season for both 2-point and 3-point field goals when receiving a pass from Green, regardless of whether it led to an assist or not. This season, Curry is shooting 5% worse when receiving a pass from Green inside the arc, but has seen a huge 6.1% jump in three point accuracy. Couple that increase with a higher percentage of Curry’s shots from Green being taken from long distance  and another potential source of his increased assist total is uncovered.

But the biggest factor is that Curry himself has shown more of a willingness to call his own number rather than dish it off, leading to a dip in his own assist figures and an accompanying uptick in assist opportunities for his teammates. Curry’s field goal attempts per game have increased by almost five (16.8 to 21.6) while his catch and shoot opportunities have also seen a significant bump (4.2 to 5.5). Assist and usage percentages (via Basketball-Reference.com) further evidence the even larger scoring role held by Curry leading to higher assist percentages for the teammates most likely to dish him the ball.

If you tie all these factors together – Green touching the ball more, Green passing more frequently to Curry, Curry shooting from distance more frequently after a pass from Green and Curry shooting more frequently overall – the increase in assists from Green is easily understood. Green stole the starting role away from David Lee last training camp and was asked simply to come in, play defense and knock down easy shots. Naturally, as young players become more familiar with their teammates and the system employed by their team, they gradually slide into their true comfort level as a basketball player. Green is still a defensive terror, but he is showing how well-rounded and how good a facilitator he truly can be at the NBA level.

The one huge caveat to Green’s assist increase is that, only 12 games into the season, it remains a product of small sample size. But right now, the best chance for the Warriors to generate points is to find a way to get Stephen Curry the ball and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. As Doug Collins once said about Michael Jordan, “give Michael the ball and everyone else get the hell out of the way.” Curry is at that level of offensive efficiency and Draymond Green’s assist distribution this season is going a long way toward advancing that objective.