Statistical Spotlight: Washington’s Jared Dudley adored by plus-minus metrics

Jared Dudley is not the sexiest name of any NBA player. The 30-year-old is on his fourth team in four seasons. He’s never been an All-Star. He is a low-usage offensive player. He is a quality rotation piece for a contender, not a gigantic difference-maker.

But the confounding summer decision of the Milwaukee Bucks to trade Dudley to the Washington Wizards could prove to be vital in playoff positioning. As it stands, the Bucks are off to a slow 5-8 start and have one of the league’s worst defenses. The Wizards — even with their major schematic changes, as enumerated by Seth Partnow at Fancy Stats — have a 6-4 record.

Dudley was expected to miss the start of the year after he underwent late July surgery on a herniated disc. He admitted that he played with the injury for a “significant part” of 2014-15 season with the Bucks. But Dudley recovered quickly, returning on the early side of his 3-to-4 month timetable. He played in the final two preseason contests, missed the season opener, and then has played in every game since.

Over the previous six seasons before Washington, Dudley averaged 25.9 minutes per game with 9.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 40.1 percent shooting from three-point range. He’s best used as a small-ball power forward in today’s game, playing versatile defense and providing necessary floor spacing. Despite those modest box-score statistics, he is beloved by many of the plus-minus-based statistics.

ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus statistic labeled him as a shooting guard last season. His 2.47 Defensive RPM was fifth-best at his position. His 2.37 overall RPM was 15th-best. In fact, one of the consultants behind the proprietary statistic, Steve Ilardi, was astounded when the Bucks traded away both Dudley and his teammate Zaza Pachulia for future second-rounders.

Ilardi’s tweet seemed to be the majority opinion on the Internet this summer. How much better were the Bucks last season with Dudley and Pachulia on the court? Again, some of the raw plus-minus statistics can tell a story on this topic. You should always treat these stats with a pretty decent grain of salt. But it is mighty interesting to note how Milwaukee performed defensively with neither of them last season.

Pachulia, 31, is averaging a double-double this season for the surprisingly competitive Dallas Mavericks. He is having a career season on the glass. After the Mavs failed to sign DeAndre Jordan, Pachulia was an absolutely perfect backup plan for a 25-minute-type role. The Bucks may have decided to clear room in the paint for major free agent signing Greg Monroe, but the move still doesn’t make a ton of sense.

For the Wizards, they had the difficult offseason task of replacing Paul Pierce’s veteran leadership and clutch performances. They also did not retain Rasual Butler or Kevin Seraphin. They were expecting Otto Porter to make a third-year jump, as he has in averaging 13.9 points in 32.9 minutes per game. But trading for Dudley, signing Alan Anderson[1. Expected back sometime in December after two offseason ankle surgeries.] in free agency, and drafting Kelly Oubre Jr. was an impressive three-pronged approach to filling the necessary minutes.

How has Dudley performed thus far with Washington? He struggled initially, but has played very well in his last few games. He had 13 points and 7 rebounds in a big 29-point win over his former team last Tuesday. And he chipped in nine more points on just four shots in Saturday’s close road win over Detroit.

In particular, Dudley seems to have a nice chemistry with Wizards star John Wall. Here, again in raw plus-minus statistics — which again carry a big asterisk because of the small sample size — you can see how well the team has played in combinations of those two.

Some have clamored for Dudley to start over Kris Humphries at the small-ball four alongside Marcin Gortat, Porter, Bradley Beal, and Wall. Regardless, Dudley is expected to still contribute floor spacing and solid defense in his usual 20-to-25 minutes per game. Many have reported on how he’s a great locker room player before. He’s occasionally made headlines (here and here) for his frequent tweets and regular podcast appearances. But it’s possible we should be talking more about his play on the court.

The Wizards have played the fewest games in the NBA, but have a wild schedule coming up next. They play 12 games in 19 days starting on Tuesday, including five different back-to-backs. We’ll see soon how their new style can withstand a grueling stretch of play. If it holds up, it’s likely that Jared Dudley had a decent role in the success.