Rajon Rondo will turn 30 years old in February. For many NBA fans, that does not seem possible. It feels like it was only yesterday when he was the young Kentucky point guard on the very successful Big Three Boston Celtics teams. Surrounded by a trio of no-doubt future Hall of Famers, Rondo grew up under the national spotlight. And he eventually became Boston’s best player.
Alas, that Celtics run of title contention ended several years ago. But Rondo’s Celtics tenure only came to a halt last season in a mid-December trade to the Dallas Mavericks. Spectacularly, the trade did not work well for Dallas or Rondo. Although it certainly has worked out for the Celtics[1. Boston eventually made the playoffs after a slow start to the season. Dallas’ offense went from league-best to barely mediocre overnight. Dwight Powell has turned into a decent player for the Mavericks, but there’s no doubt the Celtics were the big winner. The biggest contributor in the deal was Jae Crowder, who looks like a steal compared to his five-year $35 million contract this past offseason. Boston also owns Dallas’ top-seven protected 2016 first-round draft pick. Center Brandan Wright later was flipped to Phoenix for what will likely become two second-round picks in 2017.]. After that disaster, it was a big surprise to many when the Sacramento Kings came calling this summer with a one-year $9.5 million deal.
Rondo was supposed to be finished. He could hardly shoot. He was seen as an instant locker room cancer. And yet, he’s had somewhat of a turnaround season thus far in Sacramento. His current per-game averages place him on a list alone with Magic Johnson. He’s already broken a number of Kings franchise records. And his nightly highlight reels (here and here and here) remain one-of-a-kind works of art.
But how different has Rondo actually played this season compared to his most recent production? Let’s take a cursory look at first, via Basketball-Reference.com:
The per-game stats don’t seem all too different from his All-Star days of old. The two main things that pop out to me in comparison to his downswing: He is rebounding the ball at a career rate this season and he seems to be taking more three-point shots. His 18.1 defensive rebounding rate far exceeds his previous career average of just 12.6. The Kings are a mostly average rebounding team, but Rondo is grabbing a ton of the opportunities.
In his first six seasons, just over 6 percent of his shot attempts were three-pointers. Since then, it is 16 percent. He remains a poor shooter across the board – horrendously so at the free-throw line – but the classic Moreyball idiom still applies even when the shooting percentages are lower.
Notably, as Ian Levy wrote prior to 2014-15, he’s still struggling mightily in the non-restricted area paint region. But he has been one of the league’s best on drives to the rim thus far:
Via Seth Partnow, Rondo’s playmaking usage of 23.8 percent trails only Russell Westbrook. Among top-20 players in that statistic, he has the highest playmaking effective field goal percentage at 64.9 and second-highest playmaking true shooting percentage at 59.6. He has been setting up the Kings offense effectively and racking up the stats.
The Kings are only 6-12 overall, but much of that is related to the eight games missed by their star DeMarcus Cousins. They seem to be playing better basketball, as guided by Rondo and the resurgent play of Marco Belinelli.
The defense is the biggest worry as the team’s 106.6 defensive rating ranks No. 27 and 52.6 effective field goal percentage against is dead last, via NBA.com/stats. They might not have a shot at any type of Western Conference playoff spot, but the brand of basketball certainly has changed for the better.
New head coach George Karl, who might not be long for the franchise, has spoken very highly of Rondo’s intelligence level throughout the year. “It’s pretty much fun watching him re-create his career a little bit,” Karl said to the Sacramento Bee’s Jason Jones. “He’s kind of seized the moment and played at a high, high level. I really enjoy coaching him.” Their relationship is off to a very good start so far. Both sides seem to be content with how things have gone.
On Monday, Rondo returns to Dallas to face his short-lived former team. Ahead of the game, Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle said to ESPN.com’s Tim McMahon that while the trade should never have been made, Rondo’s recent play could put him in line for a max contract next offseason. It’s unfathomable to consider Rondo receiving a deal in excess of $100 million, but he certainly could get an eight-figure annual salary over multiple years.
Very few players can combine Rondo’s penchant for playmaking and rebounding. In today’s pace-and-space league, he’s a very complicated player to evaluate because of his complete lack of shooting. Trying to rank Rondo among his point guard peers is incredibly difficult because it’s almost like he plays an entirely different position.
But then, how valuable and irreplaceable is his rebounding and assist-generation? How many teams can afford to have a non-shooter on the court playing a big part of their offense? The Kings have been slightly better with him off the court thus far, although that’s partially excusable with Cousins’ injuries. This was also true, however, for Rondo in his previous three NBA seasons.
How does one accurately measure all that Rondo does on the court and put a value on it? It’s encouraging to see his recent run of triple-doubles and big statlines, but it’s near impossible to truly measure how good he might be overall.