Kenta Maeda: Fantasy Outlook in 2016
By Brad Kelly
Every season there are usually one or two potential impact Japanese players that get posted by their respected home ball clubs. We have already seen one posted and signed with first basemen, Byung-ho Park, inking a deal with the Twins. But, now it seems as though that one of the more long awaited players is set to make their debut in the MLB next season.
That would be no other than right handed starting pitcher, Kenta Maeda. Over the last few seasons there have been rumblings of him being posted, but it never transpired to anything. We have seen the success that Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Hisashi Iwakuma have had recently, so could Maeda be the next in line to shine?
Even though the above pitchers are all or have had to battle injuries recently, it does not change the fact that they are all more than serviceable major leaguers and fantasy producers. Making Maeda a must watch player this offseason and hopefully in spring training.
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Maeda has been rock solid in Japan and is clearly one of the best pitchers in the league. He is coming off a career best season in 2015 where he posted a, 15 W/2.09 ERA/175 K/1.013 WHIP line. This stat line is certainly dominant and no matter what you think of the talent level of the batters in the JPCL, the fact remains that Maeda is ready to make the move to the states.
Like most Japanese pitchers that come over to the MLB, Maeda has been durable his entire career and as he enters into his age 28 season, he has started nearly 30 starts per year over the last six years. Leaving him with plenty of tape to watch and analyze, but also a healthy amount of usage of his right arm.
While some may argue that this durability may be a warning flag, nearly every pitcher that has ever come over from Japan has been the same way. Now scouts have already deemed Maeda not having the upside as Darvish or Tanaka, but at the same time those same scouts were weary to deem them aces when they came over and when healthy we have seen that they have been two of the best pitchers in the league.
The point being that scouts offer us an idea what they think a player’s value or role will be, and for right now it seems as the consensus is that Maeda profiles as a MLB number four starter. While that does not excite you compared to them saying that he was the next Japanese ace, it serves a reminder that Maeda is talented and with pitching at the level it is nowadays, there is nothing wrong with being deemed a possible SP4.
I would advise all fantasy owners to just look up Maeda’s game tapes and try to take something away from what you see. After recently watching last year’s highlights, you can definitively see that Maeda attacks hitters, utilizes changing speeds to get batters out, and has solid command.
Over his career Maeda has posted right around a solid 7.5 SO/ and has averaged 1.8 BB/9. Both ratios are favorable and fantasy friendly. While Maeda tops out around 94 mph with his fastball, one of the biggest improvements he has made is his changeup.
Most Japanese pitchers have perfected the splitter, but Maeda has shown a MLB caliber changeup now and that may be one of his biggest keys for success in 2016. His main secondary pitch is a sweeping type of slider, which has been effective, but doesn’t match the same sharpness that his changeup could have if he keeps perfecting it further.
Darvish had the advantage of velocity, and Tanaka had the advantage of his wipeout splitter, and I think that Maeda’s advantage is that he just knows to change speeds and pound the zone. Over his entire career Maeda has never walked more than 50 batters in a season, so with the velocity not being there, this could serve as another sign of optimism.
For me, when I watch Maeda his delivery and arsenal reminds me of Hiroki Kuroda when he came over in in 2008. Now Kuroda was 33 when he made the move so Maeda has a little more zip on his fastball in part to being 5 years younger at the time of their debuts, but Maeda shows the same type of stuff that could play well in the big leagues.
In Kuroda’s debut season his stat line read, 9 W/3.73 ERA/116 K over 31 starts. I think the ERA and K totals are what I would deem a conservative projection for what Maeda should be able to do in 2016. Maeda should be able to strike more batters out and the wins will probably be based upon who he winds up with.
It is already predicted that nearly half the league will at least post the $20 million to enter into discussion with Maeda, so he will have plenty of suitors. The D’Backs have shown to be quite smitten with him dating back to last year and they appear to be the front runner as of now, but with the newest addition of Zack Greinke they may fall out of the mix.
Keep tabs on Maeda this offseason to see where he lands and if he can land in a preferable spot, target him as a target rookie.