Victor Oladipo is coming off the bench and finding his groove
By Ian Levy
It was an ugly start to the year for Victor Oladipo, at least offensively. This was supposed to be a breakout season but through the Orlando Magic’s first 14 games he was averaging 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, shooting 37.0 percent from the field and 26.4 percent on three-pointers. He had attempted a grand total of 24 free throws in those 14 games. At that point, Scott Skiles made a switch, moving Oladipo to the bench and his offensive has almost completely turned around. In the seven games he’s come off the bench, Oladipo is playing about four fewer minutes per game but is averaging 17.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game, shooting 43.3 percent from the field and 24.0 percent on three-pointers. He’s attempted 39 free throws in those seven games.
Consequently, Orlando’s offense has been better by about 4.4 points per 100 possessions since the switch was made.
Moving to the bench requires swallowing some pride but for a struggling player it’s often a nice way to make things easier. Coming off the bench shifts when a player’s minutes occur and which opposing players they match up against. Often this means trying to score against a weaker defense. According to our playing time estimates at Nylon Calculus, Across the entire season, Oladipo’s effective field goal percentage is 52.9 percent against opposing lineups with two or fewer starters. It drops to 38.0 percent against lineups with four or more starters. That negative split — minus 14.8 percentage points — is the fifth-worst in the league this season among players with at least 500 minutes played.
The changes for Oladipo run deeper than just scoring against slightly worse defenders. Moving to the bench has also slightly disentangled his minutes from Elfrid Payton. According to NBAWowy, since leaving the starting lineup, Oladipo has played about 57.8 percent of his minutes with Payton, down from 66.7 percent when he was in the starting lineup. Payton is a primary ball-handler who offers very little in the way of outside shooting and thus changes the way Oladipo plays. When they share the floor together, Oladipo is usually forced off the ball, becoming a spot-up shooter and a cutter. He’s not much of a catch-and-shoot player, making just 25.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes this season and his true shooting percentage is 55.7 percent when he’s on the floor without Payton, and just 41.8 percent when they’re on the floor together, again according to NBAWowy.
Although there are legitimate questions about how much Oladipo raises his team’s offensive ceiling as a primary scoring threat, his individual numbers are much better when he’s creating for himself. Since going to the bench and spending less time playing off Payton, Oladipo has had the ball in his hands much more and has been getting to the rim much more frequently.
His efficiency on drives still leads a lot to be desired but it’s a vast improvement. Coming off the bench may not be Oladipo’s long-term role but it has certainly helped build some confidence and has served as a reminder, for both Oladipo and the coaching staff, of what sort of role he can be most successful in. Even if he ends up back in the starting lineup at some point, staggering his minutes with Payton’s as much as possible and letting Oladipo do more slashing seems like a recipe for improved offense.