Gildan New Mexico Bowl Odds & Prediction
By Mike Marteny
A recap and prediction for the teams in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl.
Bowl season starts this weekend, and that means that I am back with my final odds and predictions for the 2015 college football season. I am assured of at least a .500 mark, but I will fall short of my goal of 55%. I want to keep right around the 53% that I am at now. However, I did well in my new points system, which will carry over into bowl season.
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In case you missed how the point scale works, here is a brief rundown:
5. A lock. I am comfortable making a sizable wager on this game.
4. Very confident. Not quite a lock, but I am comfortable making a decent sized wager on it.
3. Middle of the road. Good enough that I would make a small wager on it.
2. Could go either way. So much so that I wouldn’t bet on it.
1. Stay away from these.
Take note that any games that involve 1-AA teams will NOT be picked. That means I will be staying away from the Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl. I haven’t paid much attention to FCS schools this year. It wont do anyone any good for me to make only a slightly educated guess on the game.
On to the Gildan New Mexico Bowl!
Arizona(-8.5) vs. New Mexico at Albuquerque, NM(2):
Arizona(6-6, 3-6):
Wins: vs. UTSA(42-32), at Nevada(44-20), vs. Northern Arizona(77-13), vs. Oregon State(44-7), at Colorado(38-31), vs. Utah(37-30)
Losses: vs. UCLA(30-56), at Stanford(17-55), vs. Washington State(42-45), at Washington(3-49), at USC(30-38), at Arizona State(37-52)
Record vs. bowl teams: 2-6
New Mexico(7-5, 5-3):
Wins: vs. Mississippi Valley State(66-0), at Wyoming(38-28), vs. New Mexico State(38-29), vs. Hawaii(28-27), vs. Utah State(14-13), at Boise State(31-24), vs. Air Force(47-35)
Losses: vs. Tulsa(21-40), at Arizona State(10-34), at Nevada(17-35), at San Jose State(21-31), vs. Colorado State(21-28)
Record vs. bowl teams: 3-5
Prediction:
Both teams have the distinction of having all of their losses to bowl teams. They even have two common opponents in Arizona State and Nevada. The Wildcats beat Nevada by 24, New Mexico lost to the Wolfpack by 18. Arizona lost to Arizona State by 15, New Mexico lost by 24. Everything on paper favors Arizona, and the line reflects that.
Then again, this is a de-facto home game for New Mexico. You can argue that their wins at Boise, against Utah State, and against Air Force are just as impressive, if not more impressive, than anything Arizona did. Anu Solomon is looking like a game time decision for Arizona, and if they are without him again, this will be a much closer game than Arizona is comfortable with.
This line has steadily dropped since opening at -11, but expect a sharp rise if it is announced that Solomon will play. Don’t hold your breath on that one. College coaches are always tight-lipped when it comes to injuries because they can be. That is why, for me, the safe bet is Arizona just in case Solomon does play. Being safe didn’t get me to where I am now. New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise all season long, and if Solomon sits, they might even win this outright.
My pick: New Mexico
Stay tuned for FanDuel picks, and all of the bowl predictions against the spread!