Houston Astros A.J. Reed: Rookie Watch in 2016

With pitchers and catchers only reporting a mere month away, fantasy owners can start to examine some of the more interesting Spring Training battles. One of the more intriguing story lines to watch is going to be if stud Astros prospect, A.J. Reed, can unseat incumbent Jon Singleton for the starting first base job.

The fantasy world has been given star rookie after star rookie the last couple of seasons, and Houston has been one of the biggest contributors with the likes of George Springer and Carlos Correa. But, even though both of these players were considered amongst the best prospects, Reed is arguably the most accomplished player of the bunch.

Reed was picked out of high school by the Mets, but declined the offer and instead went on to play college ball at the University of Kentucky. He would go there and become one of the best college players in the game as he won the Golden Spike Award in 2014 and wound up being drafted in the 2nd round by the Astros in 2014.

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He was actually both a great pitcher and hitter, but his raw power was too much for teams to ignore and decided that Reed would be better off being a hitter at the next level. Reed has only played in the Astros minor leagues for only 203 games, but has certainly made his presence felt immediately.

Even though Reed has the label of being a potential impact major leaguer, the only reason we are discussing his potential impact in 2016 is because of the monster line he posted in the minors last season. Between high A and AA ball he posted a, .340/34 HR/127 RBI/1.044 OPS line, winning him the best minor league hitter award in 2015.

The first thing to get out of the way is that, the A+ league (or California League) that Reed played in is notorious for being one of the biggest hitters paradises in all of baseball. He hit 23 HR before his call up to AA but even though the California League helps hitters, the numbers he posted are nothing to scoff at.

When he went to AA he continued his power barrage smashing 11 HR across only 53 games. He did strike out 122 times, but also pitched in 86 walks last season. While there are plenty of star college players and high school players that flame out in the minors, something has to be said for a guy like Reed who has proven to be one of the best players at nearly every level of ball he has played at.

Now what is probably the most important factor in all of this, is that the Astros have the need for an upgrade at 1B. While the offseason is not over yet, it looks as though they would enter the season today with Jon Singleton manning first base with backup options such as Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena.

Clearly it serves as one of the few holes of their team. Singleton has been around since 2009, and it feels as though he has been a prospect forever. While he has still shown the power in the minors, it has never fully came together for him. He has 347 professional ABs, and has posted a meager, .171/14 HR/50 RBI/.625 OPS career line.

That is hardly an acceptable line and especially alarming to know that over his 58 ABs last season he only mustered one homer and as we all know if he is not contributing power, he basically becomes a detriment. Even though the Astros do not prioritize batting average, his career .171 AVG even makes the benched and let go of Chris Carter, look like Rod Carew.

Now if Astros decide that what Carter did last season, which would have been career highs for Singleton if had those exact same stats, was not starter worthy, one would believe that Reed has a legit chance to unseat him with a solid spring. Reed is also a big hulking lefty, he is 6’4 and weighs 240 lbs., and may already be a better fielder than Singleton. Unfortunately, he looks limited range wise to being only a first basemen, but he has the arm and decent enough glove work to stick defensively.

He has a pretty smooth swing, no crazy hitch or big load up, which should allow him to make consistent and solid contact at the pro level. I am not sold on him being a high AVG option yet, simply because his BABIP last year was ridiculously high, and he has not faced the best of the best pitching yet.

After looking at some of his highlights last season, you can see his prestigious raw power and how it would play well in Houston’s ballpark even to right field. While it is not exactly a first basemen pro comparison, his reminds me a whole lot like of Brian McCann, especially what his swing looked like during his Atlanta Braves years.

Now there is also a financial factor is all of this as well, which may be the ultimate factor in deciding if he does not make the team from the start. Like we saw last year with the Kris Bryant scenario, teams are willing to forgo about the first twenty games of the season in order to ensure control over a player for one more season before their free agency kicks in.

Power is at a premium in fantasy baseball and real life as well. Combine that with it potentially coming from a rookie and what you have is an enticing option. This will be one of the top rookies to watch this spring, so keep checking to see how he is doing.

Singleton will surely have to a great spring to influence the Astros to not make Reed a priority May call up, so if Reed can produce in the spring he will surely be on the fast track to the majors. If Reed rakes this spring, fantasy owners should take a flier on him with one of their last couple of picks even if it means stashing him for a month or so.

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