Baltimore Orioles Zach Britton: The Worm Killer

Unlike a lot of the fantasy community, devaluing closers is not a pillar of my draft methodology. While I do agree that chasing Saves can be a slippery slope, too often than not we ignore the real value that relievers can have on your pitching staff as a whole. This is why players like, Zach Britton, are some of the most valuable assets in the game.

We see it every year. Most top-10 closer rankings before drafts look nothing like the end of the year rankings, as out of nowhere relievers find a way to always crack the list. While the volatility of the position is not lost on most drafters, there is a certain, “cream of the crop”, who are hard to pass up thanks to the fantasy value they offer.

Now I will concede that investing a mid-round pick on a closer may ultimately mean passing up some other enticing option, but that risk can be attributed to just about every pick in the draft as we of course cannot predict the future.

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Pundits always rationalize skipping on the elite relievers because finding Saves on the waiver wire can be feasible and while that can certainly be the case, too often than not most owners do not even have the chance to snag one before they are all gone thanks in large part to fantasy owners that are in desperate need of a closer during the season.

This often leaves owners scrambling for the likes of a John Axford or Fernando Rodney type of closers that are unpredictable and cause you to go crazy every time they attempt to get three outs. Point being, there is an advantage of having reliable and trustworthy options that you know will not kill your weekly pitching line, so completely negate the value of the position.

Enter in: Zach Britton.

Britton has been an amazing story of a failed starter turning into arguably one of the toughest closers in all of baseball. While guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman are often lauded as having the most dominant stuff out of the bullpen, I hold that Britton hangs right there with them.

Britton throws one pitch about 91% of the time, a heavy sinker. Like the great Mariano Rivera and even Kenly Jensen now, you can have success with one pitch if you can consistently throw for it strikes and maintain its movement. Something that Britton has been able to do the last two seasons.

In 2014 Britton put himself on all of our radars posting a 37 SV/1.65 ERA/62 K season. He cemented his elite status in 2015 with, a 36 SV/1.92 ERA/79 K campaign. He has quietly molded himself into one of the best in the league, and fantasy owners should be willing to make the mud round invest in him next season.

With relievers pitching in less innings during the week or than starters, we all know that one blow up can ruin an entire team’s ERA for the week. While waiver wire options can be found, they rarely warrant confidence from owners as they are often shaky options.

Over the course of the entire 2015 season, the most runs Britton gave up in one month was four and the most he gave up in one outing was three in mid-May. Therefore, Britton stabilized an entire pitching rotation thanks in large part to his ability to prevent outings throughout most of the season where he would get shelled.

The biggest value for me in investing in some of the higher end closers is that they can mask other decencies of a fantasy rotation thanks to the great weekly ratios they can offer. One of the biggest knocks on Britton was that he did not strike out enough people to be join the elites. While that still may hold true K wise as he does not strike out the 100+ like some relievers, he has shown ample improvement since taking over the closer job.

His 17 K increase this season also came in 11 less innings of work compared to 2014, which is a 3.5 jump in his SO/9. His walks even dropped by nine last season, dropping his season total to only 14. Even though he dropped his walks and raised his K, his true success comes from inducing groundballs.

Last season, Britton induced groundballs at a 79.1% clip. The highest in baseball, and the next closest reliever was 7% behind him. Due to Britton being 6’3, and featuring a heavy sinker, batters are forced to somehow try and square up a ball that is dropping the entire time it is coming to the plate. And do not forget, it’s coming in at 95+ mph!

The pitch is just downright unhittable at times, and when he can control the bottom of the zone with it, you are in for a long night. Batters only had a batting AVG against his sinker of .223, clearly indicating just how hard it is to hit. Over 65 innings last season, he only surrendered 10 extra base hits, which is a huge reason why he can thrive through the rigors of the AL East.

I want to reiterate that those in favor of waiting on closers, have certainly found success and there will continue waiver wire closers every season. But, that does not change the advantage of having a steady reliever that can stabilize your entire staff and help limit the damage of rough pitching weeks during the season.

With most “experts” pretty much advising owners to take the wait for closers approach, I think it is the perfect time to zig when everyone else is zagging. Britton should be easily be a top 10 RP selection next season with the upside of entering top 3 status. His Saves total will hinge on the Orioles ability to improve before the season starts, as of now they look like a .500 team, so there should could be plenty of close games.

2016 Early Projections: 35 SV/1.95 ERA/80 K/0.95 WHIP