Anti-Modernism In Minnesota

No team in the NBA frustrates me as much as the Minnesota Timberwolves. It’s not that they were expected to be especially good this year. But they were supposed to be fun and exciting in a building season. A fully healthy Ricky Rubio. Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins. First overall pick and potential superstar Karl-Anthony Towns. Promising European star Nemanja “Professor Big Shots” Bjelica. Some intriguing prospects in Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng and Tyus Jones, leavened with the veteranosity of Kevin Garnett, Andre “Who YOU Calling Professor, Kid?” Miller and Tayshaun Prince.

Preseason, this looked like a League Pass darling[1. And not just because of Jim Petersen’s excellence on commentary.]. That was before the untimely death of Flip Saunders on the eve of the season threw a pall over everything[2. The level of vitriol directed at the team’s interim coach, Sam Mitchell, has been at times over the top. Perhaps to some degree this is a reaction against the understanding that the system is still largely Saunders, and it feels small to critique the coaching of someone who was by all accounts a first class human being and ambassador for the game. So Mitchell gets an extra dollop of blame, more than is deserved. Some of that is also due to his general public surliness. Even if one disagrees with his basketball ideas, if Mitchell offered more frequent explications of his thought processes as in this two part Q&A with Britt Robson, the heat might be taken down a notch.]. Still, after a promising start, it hasn’t worked out that way. After starting 8-8 behind strong play from Wiggins and Towns, Minnesota has staggered through a 4-20 stretch, and have currently lost 8 straight.

The recriminations have became noisier, critiquing everything from rotations, to night-to-night focus and readiness to play. But the most consistent complaint has been about the offense. There just isn’t any way around it, compared to the state of the NBA, the sets Minnesota runs are antiquated. Few threes[1. Last in three point attempt rate.], lots of long twos and a general failure to create the space and movement[2. 28th in passes per game, 27th in distance traveled on offense without the kind of individual talent that allows teams like Oklahoma City or the Clippers to function at a high level with a relative dearth of ball or player movement.] which teams like the Warriors and Spurs have demonstrated to be effective in the present competitive environment.

While many focus on just the three-pointers, the low number of long range shots is a symptom rather than the disease itself. The issue is spacing, but the location of shots is less the issue than the issue of catches. Minnesota’s offense seems almost designed to have the wing players catching the ball around the “donut of doom” between the arc and 15 feet from the hoop. This is demonstrable by looking at the distribution of their catch-and-shoot jump shots.

These are plays where something has worked well for the offense, simply by the fact of the player catching the ball with enough space to shoot. Whether from three-point range or using a reasonable definition of a two-point jumper[3. Shots taken from 15 feet or beyond per SportVU data.], catch-and-shoot shots are far more open than shots off the dribble. The average catch and shoot is taken with the closest defender 5.85 feet awat at the time of release, whereas the average tw0-point pullup jumper has a defender 4.44 feet from the shooter. This gap is similar from three-point range, where catch and shoot looks have 6.42 feet of space, while the less common pull ups only have 5.09 feet of room. That extra 1.4 feet or so might not seem like much, but it’s half-a-step. Half-a-step which can make a large difference in the accuracy of shots, which can mean the difference between a player closing out to the ball handler under control or being vulnerable to an attack off the dribble. Simply put, getting players open means some combination of good execution on offense or breakdown on defense[1. I would posit this is especially true for catch-and-shoot attempts from perimeter players, as the prevalence of pick-and-pop shots from bigs complicates the analysis slightly when looking at jumpers from 4’s and 5’s.].

Thru Tuesday’s games, only Phoenix’s perimeter players had taken fewer catch-and-shoot jumpers than Minnesota’s, 461, to 462. This is problematic in its own right, because it indicates that for all the complexity and precision of the system, players simply aren’t getting open enough to shoot. Worse, only New York[2. Where the hoary triangle, despite #goink through changes of its own this season, continues to generate touches for wings around the elbows.] has seen its outside players take more catch-and-shoot two-pointers, the Knicks takes so many more threes that they take a substantially smaller proportion of these shots from two than does Minnesota:

This ratio is a problem because two is greater than three, and that math has a largely inexorable logic:

Again, these are shots where Minnesota has succeeded in creating an opening. Which they then convert at a league worst rate. At least they don’t create many of them[3. Another topic for another time is how far astray this kind of within category comparison can lead one. A 55% finisher at the rim is well below average on that shot. Which his team should try to get him as often as possible because a 55% shot is a really good shot regardless of how some other guy might shoot on the same shot. But creating few good looks, which you then miss anyway ain’t a great sign]!

But it’s not just these shots. Minnesota isn’t forcing the opposition to defend the whole floor. Per SportVU movement data, the Wolves force the least defensive movement in the league per 48 minutes (7.33 total miles — the league average is around 7.7 miles, with San Antonio leading the league by forcing 8.14 miles of movement from opposing defenses). There are different sorts of stagnation, as the other two low-ranked teams on this metric are Houston (who stand around and watch James Harden a lot so nobody needs to move much.) and Milwaukee (who have about two regular rotation players who need to be guarded on the perimeter so defenses stay packed in the paint.), but Minnesota essentially and voluntarily shrinks the amount of ground the defense has to cover.

This has consequence all over the offense — effective drivers like Wiggins and LaVine are given fewer opportunities because of the congested paint. Towns has little chance to deploy his slithery post game. Rubio’s pick-and-roll game is stifled by the extra half-step[5. There it is!], weakside help defenders can cheat towards the paint. Essentially, the defenders have great license to guard the ball with two and three players both because there is less ground to cover between their assigned cover and the ball, and moreover even if they can’t recover, they are giving up an open long two — the very shot smart defenses are designed to force.

Even for a team not particularly concerned with its final record this year, this is stifling. Players aren’t getting reps in “modern NBA” situations; determining when to launch a three and when to attack a closeout off the dribble. How to identify where the help is coming from and make the proper pass on time and on target. How to space out to the arc in broken floor situations such as off of offensive rebounds[3. Minnesota has taken the fewest threes in the league directly from offensive rebounds.] or steals. This is harmful on two levels. First, the lack of reps hinders development. But more importantly for a team in Minnesota’s situation, it impedes the ability to evaluate what they have on the roster.

Rubio would be more effective in a spread pick-and-roll attack, that much seems clear. Would he be enough better to be a long-term frontline point guard, despite his continued shooting issues? We don’t know. Nor do they know what LaVine is[3. Hint: a potentially dynamic scoring from the two guard spot.], or if Muhammad can be a useful rotation piece on a good team[4. His ability to score in a variety of ways without needing to dominate the ball is an intriguing package.]. This lack of clarity in terms of the young players is a major part of the frustration with the team, as the Timberwolves can’t visualize the future with an offense that is stuck in the past.