Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis: No Place Like Home

By Brad Kelly | Jan 16, 2016

Jul 28, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles outfielder Chris Davis (19) waits on deck during the game against the Atlanta Braves at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /

Finally, the squabbling can stop.

The Chris Davis drama seems to have dominated free agency this offseason as the game’s best power hitter did not want budge from his contract demands. Love him or hate him, Scott Boras, proved effective again as the O’s finally caved and inked Davis today to their largest deal in team history.

For any of those fans that hold any ill will or resentment to the fact that Davis sort of held the O’s hostage by not accepting their original offer, that resentment should now be put to rest as Davis returns home for what looks like the rest of his career.

What I have always liked about Davis being in Baltimore, was that it was the perfect example of team willing to take one last shot on a guy many had wrote off as a bust. Davis not only has flourished in Baltimore, he has performed so well that the trade to bring him over may be one of the biggest steals in the last 20 years.

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He has been easily been the biggest power threat in all of baseball the last four years mashing 159 homers, leading all of baseball. The amazing thing about Davis, is that he makes it look so easy. While Giancarlo Stanton makes more of what I like to call, “violent contact”, Davis looks at times to just barely swing yet the ball travels 400+ ft.

Based on his home run tracking, his average home run distance was 404.5 ft., clearly just a reminder of the raw strength he possess since that was the average distance of 47 bombs! Last season, Davis had to go out and prove that his disaster 2014 was nothing more than a small bump in the road, and it is safe to safe he eased all doubts with his performance.

I do think that it is important to note, that his worse season, in 2014, was the only season where he trouble getting his Adderall prescription cleared by the MLB and consequentially why he was suspended as well. So, in every other year when he had his prescription, he produced, so I do not think that Davis will suddenly fall of a cliff like he did in 2014 and that year should be looked at as more of a medical outlier.

Now there are a lot of people in the fantasy community and real life, that think Davis is bound to have his massive K totals catch up to him and see that as a viable risk to why he may be prone to a sudden dip in production. However, there is nothing about his batted ball data that strikes me as though he is due to regress.

The only outlier stat that pundits may use, other than strikeouts or course, is that fact that in 2015 he pulled over 55% of the pitches he made contact with which was a career high and well higher than what it was during in his breakout 2013 season.

Davis has power that plays to all fields, but since he strikes out so much, the only way his AVG is buoyed, is if he can keep getting hits. Thus making his slow pattern of becoming strictly a pull hitter, a tad bit concerning since teams invoke the shift against him consistently, thus methodically cutting into his AVG and OBP. While that may be a viable concern, we are not picking Davis in search of his AVG help at the end of the day. We want the power.

The one thing that has stayed consistent with Davis, is that he rarely makes soft contact and has routinely sat in the high end medium and hard contact ranges. Last season, his Soft% was only 9.7%, which was only a tick off his career low.

The most important stat here though, is that like in his monster 2013 campaign where his Med% and Hard% were both in the mid 40%, he nearly posted those identical numbers last season. (Med% in 2013 was 47.4%, compared to 48.4% in 2015. His Hard% in 2013 was 41.3%, compared to 41.4% in 2015)

Just further showing how 2014 should really be seen as a lost season, and how Davis has shown eerily similar consistency in his two biggest years with the O’s. OBP and OPS wise, Davis is of course carried by his extra base hit ability.

When hitting 40 to 50 bombs and 40+ doubles, both of these on-base oriented stats are pretty much going to be solid even with a 200 K performance. Keep in mind as well, that Davis walked 84 times last season and had 72 BB in 2013, so he has shown the ability to take a walk as well.

Another underestimated fact about Davis’s game is that he has been extremely durable over the last four seasons, averaging 147 games played during that span. He has become an insert and forget type of player, and one that instantly becomes the anchor of a fantasy lineup.

The Orioles should one again have a pretty potent lineup in front of and behind Davis, especially if he winds up in the cleanup spot and has Adam Jones and Manny Machado slotted in front him. So, with 100 RBI looking very likely again, he will also have the benefit of having a healthy Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo behind him, potentially driving up his Runs total as well.

Next: Mitch Moreland: Can He Be Trusted in 2016?

We have seen that he has found a home in Baltimore and his power production has not been matched by anyone in baseball. He probably will not go in the first round of most drafts thanks to there being a plethora of first round caliber options this year, but there is no way drafters should pass him up if they have a chance to snag him in the second round.

The weekly and seasonal advantage of having the best power hitter on your team is too much to pass up. Do not be scared off by the K.

2016 Early Projections: .260 AVG/45 HR/120 RBI/100 R/.900 OPS

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