Boston Red Sox Mookie Betts: First Rounder in 2016?

Amidst another down season for the Red Sox in 2015, it was probably lost on most just how good Mookie Betts finished the season. His second half production ranked amongst the best in all of baseball and as spring approaches, it should not be come as any surprise to see Betts creep into the first round of fantasy drafts.

What Betts brings is a dynamic skill set that offers an exciting blend of power and speed. He is one of the few players in baseball that can be a continual 20HR/20SB threat, so owners that have a pick in the backend of the first round will have to decide whether not 2016 is the year that Betts breaks out.

Betts had a pretty up and down season in 2015, where he had exactly three months of solid production and three months where he was a fantasy liability. In the three months where he struggled, he did not hit have an AVG over .259, nor an OPS more than .718. He did pitch in with at least 2 homers and 12 RBI each those down months, but those still are underwhelming.

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While he did have his bumps in the road in only his second MLB season, he did show flashes that should have piqued owner’s interest into contemplating if Betts could be this year’s version of A.J. Pollock. He finished the second half with a, .311 AVG/8 HR/8 SB/.859 OPS/44 R line. Those stats came in 13 fewer games than his first half line, but they nearly matched or barely missed equaling what he was able to do over the majority of the beginning of the season.

Whenever the label of possible “first-rounder” gets attributed to any player, there has to be some sort of statistical basis to believe that he could take the next step in production. For me, the optimism is based around his batted ball data and his ability to adjust and succeed at every level of pro ball that he has reached.

In the minors, Betts climbed through the ranks rather quickly from his age 18 season in 2011, till his eventual debut in 2014. In every stop along the way, he has basically shown the same skill set that we got a glimpse of last season. A plus average, never below a .270 AVG at any stop, solid pop with season highs of 15 and 11 respectively and great speed by stealing 92 minor league career bags.

Success in the minors is not foreign, especially for players ranked as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball, but to see his skill set essentially show at every level makes one think that Betts can keep it going in the future. Add the fact that Betts had a decent sample size in 2014 with 213 ABs, giving pitchers plenty of time to adjust facing him in 2015, and all Betts did was go out and  still produce.

In terms of his batted ball data, Betts has the knack to square balls up and make consistent solid contact. Last season, his Med% (balls in play at medium contact speed) was 52.8%, which paired with his 31.2% Hard%, signifies that Betts certainly has legit gap to gap power. Another positive mark, is that he had only had a 16.1% Soft%, which shows that when Betts makes contact it is usually going to be with ample force.

With 68 extra base hits, 18 homers, 42 doubles, and 8 triples, Betts should have no trouble posting a .800+ OPS, even though he does not walk at a great rate. He only struck out 82 times in 2015 over 597 AB, making him one of the better contact oriented hitters in the game.

There have been some to question whether or not Betts can maintain his power even though he is smaller in nature standing in at only, 5’9 and weighing only 155 lbs. But, even though he lacks the power hitter type of stature, the one thing he has shown is the ability to elevate the ball.

The biggest reason behind his power numbers last season was the fact that he dropped his GB% by 2.3% and upped his FB% by nearly 5%. Combine that switch, with his uptick in making harder contact and you have a player that is making harder contact which is turning into more home runs and extra base hits. All signs point to Betts being on the verge of an even further breakout, as none of these stats are luck oriented or statistical outliers based on his minor league stats.

Speed wise is where Betts can make the bigger jump. He is easily one of the most athletic and quickest players in the league, so with him only attempting 27 steals last season, there needs to be a larger focus on him utilizing his speed on the base paths.

He stole 21 bags and was caught 6 times, but there is no reason that number cannot reach closer to 30 SB mark, as long as he can avoid some of the more brutal months that he had last season. Clearly he cannot steal first base, so one would have to think that he will not struggle as much as he did last season, only increasing the odds of him being able to steal more bases.

By playing in the AL East, Betts surely has the advantage of hitting in some of the better hitters ballparks in baseball. That certainly serves as an advantage and why his Home/Road splits showed that his power played evenly in both settings.

No matter how good a player may be, their production can be weighed down by the supporting class around them. That is not the case with Betts, as he should leadoff one of the potentially best lineups in the AL. Batting in front of the likes of Xander Bogaerts and David Ortiz, should only drive up his counting stats and with some bounce back seasons from other middle of the lineup bats, he should reach 100 R easily.

Next: Eric Hosmer: 2016 Projections

Therefore, at the end of the first round in this year’s draft, I fully expect Betts to be a popular target for those owners wanting to pair the dynamic OF with another solid option in the beginning of the second round.

I fully think that A.J. Pollock’s 2015 line, (.315/20 HR/39 SB/111 R) could serve as the ceiling of what Betts could reach this season. Monitor him this spring, and convince yourself that this is his breakout season.